Outlook for International Prices of Fertilizers, Raw Materials and ...

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POTASH PRICES 800 US$/tonne fob POTASH - $/t fob bulk Vancouver 600 400 Downside rish still exists in short term 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 FERTECON /FAI Hyderabad December 2009 83 SULPHUR PRICES – MEDIUM TERM 600 US$/t 500 400 300 200 Middle East spot 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 FERTECON /FAI Hyderabad December 2009 84 42
CONCLUSIONS Moderate prices expected in medium term. High price levels of 2008 unlikely to be repeated CONCLUSIONS - DEMAND Fertilizer demand is now starting to recover, and this will gather pace in 2010 Crop prices are improving Low fertilizer application - particularly of P and K – will need to be corrected in 2010 and 2011 if yields are not to fall Subsistence agriculture was severely challenged in 2008 and will need subsidies and/or aid finance for fertilizers to avoid a drop in yields Medium term, fundamentals of increasing population and improving diets, plus demand for biofuels, will mean a return to strong demand growth FERTECON /FAI Hyderabad December 2009 86 43
Page 1 and 2: Outlook for International Prices of
Page 3 and 4: WHAT HAPPENED? The financial crisi
Page 5 and 6: POTASH PRICES 1000 US$/tonne fob PO
Page 7 and 8: LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE 1000 NH3 - US
Page 9 and 10: DEMAND DRIVERS POPULATION - more m
Page 11 and 12: NUTRIENT BALANCES N P K 2020 2015 2
Page 13 and 14: PHOSPHATE USE BY CROP 16% 3% 4% 5%
Page 15 and 16: CORN PRICES 8 7 6 US$/bushel receiv
Page 17 and 18: AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK Strong growth
Page 19 and 20: CROP PRICES AND FERTILIZER PRICES
Page 21 and 22: DOMINATION OF ASIA MAJOR PHOSPHATE
Page 23 and 24: SHORT TERM DEMAND 125 Milllion tonn
Page 25 and 26: SUPPLY FACTORS Supply management ke
Page 27 and 28: NITROGEN SUPPLY Many suppliers - F
Page 29 and 30: WORLD DEMAND FOR AMMONIA BY END-USE
Page 31 and 32: WORLD: UREA PRODUCTION 2007 Total 1
Page 33 and 34: NITROGEN FEEDSTOCK Outside o
Page 35 and 36: POTENTIAL PHOSPHATE PROJECTS - ROCK
Page 37 and 38: POTASH SUPPLY Supply very concentr
Page 39 and 40: POTASH INVESTMENT Most of the ne
Page 41: UREA PRICES - MEDIUM TERM 600 US$/t
Page 45: THE OUTLOOK FOR INDIA India

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