Outlook for International Prices of Fertilizers, Raw Materials and ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

PRICE DRIVERS Agricultural fundamentals WHAT DRIVES FERTILIZER PRICES? Fertilizers are a commodity The drivers are supply and demand Demand is driven by the ag economy For nitrogen, short term supply/demand trends can have more influence on price than longer term trends This can also be the case in phosphates Marketing structure means potash prices tend to be influenced more by longer-term trends FERTECON /FAI Hyderabad December 2009 16 8
DEMAND DRIVERS POPULATION - more mouths to feed BETTER NUTRITION – increased meat consumption in rapidly growing economies, more varied diets – more feed grains required ARABLE LAND AVAILABILITY – need to increase yields NUTRIENT BALANCES – under-application of P and K in many areas – e.g. India and China COMMERCIAL CROPS – affordability – if farmers are getting a good price for their crops they look to optimise fertilizer application BIOFUELS – new demand FERTECON /FAI Hyderabad December 2009 17 DEMAND DRIVER CHANGES POPULATION - still more mouths to feed BETTER NUTRITION – meat and vegetable consumption - growth has continued in India, China etc despite the recession ARABLE LAND AVAILABILITY – need to increase yields – more ag land in Latin America – but that needs fertilizer NUTRIENT BALANCES – under-application of P and K - but high prices lead to demand destruction in P and K COMMERCIAL CROPS – affordability – crop prices have come off peaks and high fertilizer prices were unaffordable for subsistence agriculture BIOFUELS – new demand – some countries backing off from biofuels commitments – but massive expansion in Brazil and renewed commitment from President Obama FERTECON /FAI Hyderabad December 2009 18 9
Page 1 and 2: Outlook for International Prices of
Page 3 and 4: WHAT HAPPENED? The financial crisi
Page 5 and 6: POTASH PRICES 1000 US$/tonne fob PO
Page 7: LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE 1000 NH3 - US
Page 11 and 12: NUTRIENT BALANCES N P K 2020 2015 2
Page 13 and 14: PHOSPHATE USE BY CROP 16% 3% 4% 5%
Page 15 and 16: CORN PRICES 8 7 6 US$/bushel receiv
Page 17 and 18: AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK Strong growth
Page 19 and 20: CROP PRICES AND FERTILIZER PRICES
Page 21 and 22: DOMINATION OF ASIA MAJOR PHOSPHATE
Page 23 and 24: SHORT TERM DEMAND 125 Milllion tonn
Page 25 and 26: SUPPLY FACTORS Supply management ke
Page 27 and 28: NITROGEN SUPPLY Many suppliers - F
Page 29 and 30: WORLD DEMAND FOR AMMONIA BY END-USE
Page 31 and 32: WORLD: UREA PRODUCTION 2007 Total 1
Page 33 and 34: NITROGEN FEEDSTOCK Outside o
Page 35 and 36: POTENTIAL PHOSPHATE PROJECTS - ROCK
Page 37 and 38: POTASH SUPPLY Supply very concentr
Page 39 and 40: POTASH INVESTMENT Most of the ne
Page 41 and 42: UREA PRICES - MEDIUM TERM 600 US$/t
Page 43 and 44: CONCLUSIONS Moderate prices expecte
Page 45: THE OUTLOOK FOR INDIA India

Outlook for International Prices of Fertilizers, Raw Materials and ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?