THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY TO 2030 AND ITS ... - acuns

The Centre for International Governance Innovation
This Overview highlights the key findings of The Future
of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety,
Security and Nonproliferation. For the research, analysis,
data and references that support the findings sketched in
this Overview, see the full report at www.cigionline.org.
The Future of Nuclear
Energy to 2030
The Revival so Far
If one dates the revival of interest in nuclear energy from
2000, it is clear a decade later that progress has been
slow. Several countries, notably in East Asia, have begun
building new reactors as part of ambitious nuclear energy
programs, but many others have only announced
intentions or plans, are studying the possibilities or are
simply floating ideas. There has been, in fact, a decline
in the contribution of nuclear power to world electricity
production from 16.7 percent in 2000 to 13.5 percent in
2008. This level was only sustained due to capacity factor
improvements in the existing fleet and extended operating
licences, mostly in the United States. The International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) figure of 436 reactors
as of December 2009 is eight units less than the historical
peak of 444 in 2002. Five nuclear power reactors remain
in long-term shutdown. Since commercial nuclear energy
began in the mid-1950s, 2008 was the first year that no
new nuclear plant was connected to the grid, although
two were connected in 2009.
The industry is struggling to quickly reverse a profound
stagnation that has occurred since the boom years of the
1970s and 1980s. The accidents at Three Mile Island in
1979 and Chernobyl in 1986 led to tightening of regulations
and more prolonged and expensive approval
processes that deterred investment and led to numerous
cancelled orders. Cheaper oil and gas prices, along with
perennially cheap coal, also played against the economics
of nuclear power. The average age of operational nuclear
power plants worldwide is now 25.5 years. Current
Nuclear Reactor Numbers and Share of Global Electricity Production since 2000
18%
460
Percentage of Global
Electricity Production
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
450
440
430
420
410
Operating Reactors
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
400
Source: Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), International Atomic Energy Agency. Accessed 3 December 2009. ‘Electricity Generation’ and
‘Nuclear Energy – Consumption’ in Statistical Review of World Energy 2009: Historical data, BP, June 2009.
10 cigionline.org