THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY TO 2030 AND ITS ... - acuns

The Centre for International Governance Innovation
Special Barriers for
Aspiring Nuclear
Energy States
New entrants to the nuclear energy business face particular
barriers to entry that reinforce skepticism about
the likelihood of a significant nuclear energy expansion
by 2030. This project’s Survey of Emerging Nuclear Energy
States (SENES) (www.cigionline.org/senes) tracks
progress made by aspirant states from the first official
announcement of interest to the connection of a nuclear
power plant to the country’s electricity grid.
SENES reveals that 33 states, plus the members of the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) collectively, have announced
a “consideration” or “reconsideration” of nuclear
energy at a credible ministerial level since 2000.
Only three, Italy, Poland and Turkey, are considered developed
countries. The first two have good prospects of
succeeding in their acquisition plans, Turkey less so. Of
the remainder, which are almost all developing countries,
several are wealthy enough due to oil income to
be able to afford a nuclear reactor on a turnkey basis,
including Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela
and the Gulf States, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
But all SENES developing countries, with the sole exception
of Iran, lack an indigenous capacity at present
to even operate, regulate and maintain a single nuclear
reactor, much less construct one. The Philippines has a
partially completed reactor in a seismically-active area
which it may resume work on. Among the SENES developing
states, as of January 2010 only Egypt, Turkey and
the UAE are known to have invited bids for a plant. The
UAE has just accepted a bid from a South Korean consortium,
while Turkey has recently cancelled the initial
bid and restarted the process.
Many SENES states have taken some preliminary steps
towards acquiring nuclear energy, such as consulting
the IAEA and establishing an atomic energy commission
and/or nuclear regulatory authority. But these are
the easiest steps and imply nothing about actual capability.
Such countries would need to make unprecedented
progress in their governance, infrastructure and economic
situation before nuclear power becomes a feasible
option, as revealed by several measurable indicators researched
as part of this study.
Governance
A country’s ability to run a nuclear power program
safely and securely is dependent on its capacity to successfully
and sustainably manage a large and complex
project stretching over decades ― from planning to
decommissioning. This includes nuclear waste management,
essentially in perpetuity. Vital requirements
are an effective nuclear regulatory infrastructure and
a good safety and security culture. These are not built
overnight. Many aspiring nuclear energy states struggle
with poor governance, corruption, the threat of terrorism
and civil unrest. While one alternative is to buy
an entire nuclear infrastructure, including operators
and regulators, only the wealthy oil-rich states like the
UAE will be able to afford this route.
Infrastructure
A second major barrier is having the physical infrastructure
to support a nuclear power plant. The IAEA’s
Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure
for Nuclear Power lists hundreds of infrastructure targets
— including physical infrastructure — that aspiring
nuclear states should meet before even considering
whether to commission a nuclear plant. These include
roads, transportation, a safe and secure site, supporting
power generators, a large water supply and waste
management facilities. Reaching just a fraction of these
20 cigionline.org