Appendices - Armagh City and District Council

STAGE ONE REPORT
The Paul Hogarth Company
Evidence in support of an Armagh Masterplan
Trading: external demand will be lower over the short-term. Northern Ireland’s key export
markets the UK and Republic of Ireland are forecast to slow in the next two years. The
challenge to local businesses is to maintain their level of exports to these markets and look
further a field for new opportunities;
Inward Investment: with slowing economic activity and concern over the possible effects of
the credit crunch, firms are likely to reduce their inward investment activity. As a result, the
region and Armagh will likely find that potential new inward investment will be scarce in the
next few years;
Skills: it is forecast that developing economies will continue to out grow developed
economies in the next few years as they take advantage of lower costs, faster growing
populations, and rising disposable income. The challenge for Northern Ireland and Armagh
is to compete less on costs, and more on quality. Local business will need to move into high
value added activity. In order to achieve this, it will have to rely on higher levels of skills and
available labour; and
Government spending: In addition, given the planned slow down in Government spending
growth in the UK and Northern Ireland, the economy can no longer rely on the public sector
to act as a key driver of the economy. The challenge is to grow the private sector, despite
the changing economic environment highlighted above.
2.7 As a result, growth in the local economy is likely to slow over the next few years. However
beyond the slow down, there are likely to be a number of sectoral trends:
Agriculture and manufacturing: are likely to contract in employment terms. Given lower
real incomes in agriculture in recent years, the sector is likely to experience a period of
change as farms merge to realise economies of scale. In manufacturing, businesses will
need to move away from competing on cost and into higher value added activity. Although
this is likely to see a reduction in employment, productivity and turnover should rise;
Construction: the construction sector is forecast to grow going forward as the £18bn ISNI is
carried out over the next decade. The scale and types of projects will also offer local
companies the chance to build up their expertise and export their services;
Finance and business services: are likely to grow. These sectors are currently
underdeveloped when compared to the UK or Republic of Ireland;
Creative industries: industries such as media, IT and advertising are likely to grow in
importance as, overall the economy becomes more private services orientated;
Retail: the retail sector has undergone considerable development in recent years, with a
number of high profile developments. Looking forward, this should slow down, as the sector
becomes saturated;
Pharmaceuticals: sectors that rely on high levels of innovation and R&D like
pharmaceuticals are likely to grow in importance as highly skilled labour are used to
compete on quality; and
Public sector: given the rising population levels, the education and health sectors are likely
to continue to grow. However employment in the public administration sector faces a more
uncertain future with the Review of Public Administration (RPA), strive for efficiency savings,
and a slow down in public spending.
Population trends
2.8 Armagh District Council has experienced a growing population over the last 15 years.
Analysis shows that over the period 1991 to 2006, the working age population grew faster
than the total population (14.6% compared to 8.6%). Although over the next 15 years this is
likely to change with the total population level forecast to grow more than the working age
population, at 19% and 15% respectively.
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