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I. INTRODUCTION II BACKGROUND CONTENTS III POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE A. Introduction B. Evolution of Modern Chinese Politics C. Chinese Communist Party - Ideology D. Political Stability E. Five Year Economic and Social Development Programme F. Political Reform G. Political Leadership H. Summary IV ECONOMY A. Introduction B. Economic Development C. Future Direction D. Access to Resources and Markets E. Regional and International Economic Issues F. Summary V VI FOREIGN POLICY A. Introduction B. Evolution in Foreign Policy C. Foreign Policy Strategy D. US and Chinese Foreign Relations E. Chinese Institutionalism F. Regional Foreign Policy G. Maritime Dimension H. International Foreign Policy I. Morality and Values in Foreign Policy J`. Summary CONCLUSION 3
INTRODUCTION China’s vast economic transformation and re-emergence as a great power has implications for global peace, security and stability. This dissertation examines the hypothesis that internal domestic policy will drive Chinese foreign policy. The analysis focuses on the primacy of China’s internal transformation shaping foreign policy. The alternative hypothesis that a transformed and internally strong China will act as a hegemonic global power is found wanting. The dissertation is in three parts covering politics, the economy and foreign policy. The analysis starts with a brief review of politics, governance and transformation. The aim is to examine the political landscape, focusing on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the implementation of domestic policy. This leads to the economy and China’s use of a ‘socialist market economy,’ to generate wealth. The economic model has two important outcomes. First, a successful economy gives legitimacy to authoritarian CCP rule. Second, the economy drives many foreign policy choices, principally connected with access to markets and resources. In the subsequent analysis, the dissertation debates between the benefits of a Realist foreign policy and the alternative, a foreign policy shaped by needs of internal transformation – often referred to as a ‘peaceful rise’ by the CCP. The result of all of the analysis is that China will choose a carefully choreographed middle path. China will protect her growing global interests and firmly focus on economic development to ensure political stability. However, as the Chinese proverb says, ‘sometimes the ladles clash when scooping rice from the same bowl.’ BACKGROUND China is following a unique trajectory with a programme of modernisation through rapid industrialiation and growth in the economy. China has capitalised on the opportunities of globalisation, invested in manufacturing, secured access to resources and transformed from a rural to an urban-based economy. This rapid internal transformation brings unique socio-economic challenges, which the CCP will seek to manage without touching off an internal revolution. This requires deft balancing of the economy, gradual easing of restrictions and experimentation with political reform. However, the benefits of transformation are huge and China is developing a prime position with wealth, power and influence at a regional and international level. Before examining modern China, it is important to understand a little of the legacy from China’s long history. The early emergence of Chinese identity, ethnicity and culture has led to an enduring Chinese civilisation in the sub continent of East Asia. This can be characterised by: The huge size of China was a consequence of natural borders [...] with the Qin Dynasty building as many roads as the Roman Empire, with sophisticated state-craft, based on the teaching of Confucius.’ 3 Additionally the theory of tianxia – literally ‘under heaven,’ led to imperial sovereignty over all people in the Middle Kingdom. Neighbouring countries existed within a sphere of influence as ‘tributary’ states. Unification and this concept of sovereignty has given China some lasting characteristics, which are quite unlike the Westphalia agglomeration of states in Europe. As a result, China has a sense of destiny as the Middle Kingdom – at the centre of the world. 3 Martin Jaques, When China Rules the World (London: Penguin, 2009), 76. 4
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