Ethiopia - OCHANet

Section 2.
The context of Ethiopia 4
14. Ethiopia has suffered a series of droughts of varying intensities, most recognised over the past
40 years, but recorded for over 100 years. While droughts affecting the densely populated northern
highlands are best known, those impacting the southern highlands and pastoralist
economies have predominated over the past 15 years.
15. Dramatic variations in the climate contribute to food insecurity. Rainfall data for the period 1967
to 2000 indicate that annual variability in rainfall across different zones in Ethiopia ranged from
a low of 15% to a high of 81% – among the highest in the world. Ethiopia is ranked ninth in the
world in terms of overall vulnerability to climate change. 5 The country has a range of climate zones
described by altitude and latitude, 6 but has recently experienced an increase in extreme climatic
events and variations in seasonal and annual rainfall. 7 These factors make the country more vulnerable
to predictable cyclical events such as La Nina phenomenon in the eastern Pacific. In late 2010
and 2011 the La Nina phenomenon caused below average rainfall in both the October to December
and March to May seasons.
16. Over 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture and livestock husbandry as farmers
and pastoralists. Rain-fed subsistence agriculture is the main source of income for the rural population
in the densely populated central and north-eastern highlands. Rain is also the critical ingredient
for communities in the agro-pastoral
and pastoral lowlands that run in
a crescent from Hararghe through
the Somali Region, and into Oromia
and parts of the Southern Nations,
Nationalities and Peoples Region
(SNNPR). 8
Fig 1: % of people below the poverty line in Ethiopia: source, 2010 MDG report.
Ethiopia has recorded impressive
rates of growth in the last decade,
averaging 11% a year. This has led
to a decline in poverty from 49.5%
in 1994 to 29% in 2011.
17. Despite this impressive growth, demography and rural poverty sustain high levels of vulnerability
whilst environmental shocks have severely eroded rural livelihoods for the poorest. In addition to
rainfall shocks, health risks, including malaria and HIV/AIDS, exacerbate the vulnerability of the poor.
4. This section is an abridged version of a longer context analysis found at annex 3.
5. Africa Climate Chance Resilience Alliance (2011). Preparing for the future?
Understanding the influence of development initiatives on adaptive capacity in Ethiopia.
6. Oxfam International (2010). The Rain Doesn’t Come on Time Anymore: Poverty, Vulnerability and Climate Change in Ethiopia. Oxford.
7. Ibid.
8. See http://v4.fews.net/docs/Publications/ET_Livelihoods.pdf for a definitive look at livelihood zones.
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