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# F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals

F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals

STAT 212 Business Statistics II 8 5. (14 marks = 2+2+2+8) Hotel Occupancy Percentages (HOP) in Madinah over the quarter-periods of 2003 to 2007 were observed as follows. Year 2003 …… 2007 Quarter 1 2 3 4 ……. 1 2 3 4 t 1 2 3 4 17 18 19 20 Hotel Occupancy 56.1 70.2 80.0 56.8 ……. 66.5 83.5 87.3 67.0 Rate Use the MINITAB output below to answer the accompanying questions. Regression Analysis: Hotel Occupancy Percentage versus t The regression equation is Hotel Occupancy Percentage = 63.9 + 0.525 t Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 63.937 4.619 13.84 0.000 t 0.5246 0.3856 1.36 0.190 S = 9.943 R-Sq = 9.3% R-Sq(adj) = 4.3% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 1 183.00 183.00 1.85 0.190 Residual Error 18 1779.59 98.87 Total 19 1962.59 Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.99 a. Find the forecast for Hotel Occupancy Rate in the 3 rd quarter of 2003. b. Find the forecast error in the 3 rd quarter of 2003 c. Find the mean squared error of the forecast model d. Test that there is a significant positive serial correlation in the forecast model, and comment on your findings. H 0 : The test hypotheses are: H A : The test statistic value = The critical value(s) = Reject H 0 if The decision rule is: The decision is: Conclusion is: We have (enough/not enough) _____________evidence that _______

STAT 212 Business Statistics II 9 6. (12 marks ) Quarterly hotel occupancy percentage (HOP) in Madinah for the period 2005 up to 2007 are given in the table below. Fill in the blank shaded areas below. Year Quarter HOP Moving Average (MA) Centered MA Ratio to MA Normalized Seasonal Index Deseasoned HOP 1 59.4 65.15 2005 2 73.8 68.95 66.525 3 72.9 66.875 1.0901 67.225 4 60.0 66.85 0.8975 1 62.2 68.22 2006 2007 2 70.8 0.89141 66.15 69.200 3 80.6 69.7375 0.91173 71.54 70.275 4 63.2 71.8625 0.8795 1.07027 70.90 73.450 1 66.5 74.2875 0.8952 75.125 2 83.5 75.6 1.1045 76.075 3 87.3 77.49 4 67.0 75.16

Annual Report 2010 - Research Institute - King Fahd University of ...
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
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F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
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F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
F1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
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E1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
E1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
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E1 - King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
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King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
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