Lower Welland River Characterization Report - Niagara Peninsula ...

Lower Welland River Study Area
Characterization Report
climate are not certain, it is reported by the MNR in this study that the projections are likely “closer
to future reality than assuming that the future climate will be similar to that of the past 30, 60, or
100 years” (2007).
The report also outlines possible impacts that climate change could have on Ontario‟s ecosystems,
societal values and infrastructure. For example, impacts to the agricultural sector could include a
possible change in crops grown, longer growing season and a reduced productivity where an
increase of temperature without a compensatory increase in precipitation occurs (MNR 2007).
Examples of potential impacts to the environment include changes in biodiversity of species and
ecosystems, and new species becoming „at risk‟ because of disequilibrium with climate (MNR
2007). For the complete list of examples of key possible impacts that climate change could have
on Ontario‟s ecosystems, societal values and infrastructure taken from this report refer to Appendix
A.
In Mainstreaming Climate Change in Drinking Water Source Protection Planning In Ontario, de Loë
and Berg (2006) report some of the predicted impacts climate change could have on the hydrologic
cycle and water resources in the Great Lakes Basin. The hydrologic cycle is sensitive to changes
in temperature, precipitation and evaporation which accordingly could result in significant changes
to streamflows, lake levels, water quality, groundwater infiltration, and patterns of groundwater
recharge and discharge (de Loë and Berg 2006). The following are examples of potential impacts
that the predicted changes to the hydrologic cycle could have on water resources in the Great
Lakes Basin as reported by de Loë and Berg (2006):
Winter runoff is expected to increase, but total runoff is expected to decrease, thus summer
and fall low flows are expected to be lower and longer lasting;
Groundwater recharge is expected to decrease due to a greater frequency of droughts and
extreme precipitation events. As a result, shallow aquifers will be more sensitive to these
changes than deeper wells; and
Water temperature in rivers and streams is expected to rise as air temperatures rise, and
as summer baseflow is reduced.
These modeled or predicted impacts to water resources will affect society as well as ecosystems.
Societal water use issues may arise because decreased runoff may lead to reduced water quality,
resulting in increased water treatment costs and greater competition and conflict for water
resources during low water or drought conditions. Ecologically, changes to wetland form and
function may also experience change due to the impacts of climate change. For example, a
reduction in groundwater discharge and an increase in surface water temperature will stress fish
and fish habitat (de Loë and Berg 2006).
For the summary table of identified hydrological changes expected in the Great Lakes Basin
identified in this report, refer to Appendix A.
Current Land Use
The Lower Welland River and Thompsons Creek study area falls primarily within the municipal
boundaries of the City of Niagara Falls (63%) and the City of Thorold (31%), with a small portion
extending into the City of Welland (6%).
Land use in the study area is a mix of agriculture, residential, industrial and commercial (Figure 6).
According to statistics generated for the Water Availability Study (AquaResource 2009) through the
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