EXOTIC WOODY WEEDS Use of simulation models to predict future ...

Contents
Foreword ......................................................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgments............................................................................................................................iv
Abbreviations...................................................................................................................................iv
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... vii
1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................1
2 Methods........................................................................................................................................3
2.1 CLIMEX model ......................................................................................................................3
2.2 Climate change scenarios.......................................................................................................4
2.3 Prickly acacia ........................................................................................................................4
2.3.1 Present distribution of prickly acacia................................................................................5
2.3.2 A population model of Acacia nilotica: A tool for exploring weed management and the
effects of climate change.................................................................................................8
2.3.3 The effects of climate change on prickly acacia population dynamics ............................10
2.3.4 Assessing strategies for adaptation to prickly acacia under climate change ...................11
2.4 Rubber Vine..........................................................................................................................12
2.4.1 Present distribution of rubber vine .................................................................................13
2.4.2 Ecology of rubber vine...................................................................................................14
3 Results.........................................................................................................................................15
3.1 Prickly acacia distribution using CLIMEX ..............................................................................15
3.2 Rubber vine distribution using CLIMEX.................................................................................23
3.3 Prickly acacia population dynamics and management using the DYMEX model ..................31
3.3.1 Impacts of prickly acacia invasion..................................................................................31
3.3.2 Effects of climate change on prickly acacia population dynamics...................................31
3.3.3 Effects of climate change on infestation levels of prickly acacia ....................................32
3.3.4 Assessing strategies for adaptation to prickly acacia under climate change ...................35
4 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................36
4.1 Prickly acacia ......................................................................................................................36
4.2 Adaptation responses to rubber vine ........................................................................................37
4.3 Adaptation responses to prickly acacia .....................................................................................37
5 Implications ................................................................................................................................39
6 Recommendations......................................................................................................................40
7 References .................................................................................................................................41
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