Prediction of Frontogenetically Forced Precipitation Bands

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Frontogenesis (definition) F = D Dt ∇pθ (S. Petterssen 1936) ‣ The 2-D scalar frontogenesis function (F ) – quantifies the change in horizontal (potential) temperature gradient following air parcel motion : F > 0 frontogenesis, F < 0 frontolysis ‣ Conceptually, the local change in horizontal temperature gradient near an existing front, baroclinic zone, or feature as it moves.
Vector Frontogenesis Function F = F n + n F s s (Keyser et al. 1988, 1992) D F n = − ∇pθ Dt D F s = n ⋅( k × ∇pθ ) Dt F is of fundamental importance… Change in magnitude ‣ Corresponds to vertical motion on the frontal scale (mesoscale bands) Change in direction (rotation) ‣ Corresponds to vertical motion on the scale of the baroclinic wave itself ‣ Galilean invariant ‣ full wind generalization of the quasi-geostrophic Q-vector
Page 1 and 2: PREDICTION OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FOR
Page 3: INGREDIENTS BASED FORECASTING Purp
Page 7 and 8: Horizontal Divergence Divergence (
Page 9 and 10: Horizontal Deformation (cont.) F
Page 11 and 12: Other Contributing Factors to Front
Page 13 and 14: Dynamics of Frontogenesis (cont.) A
Page 15 and 16: Forecasting Applications
Page 17 and 18: Common Synoptic Patterns TWO CLASSE
Page 19 and 20: Northwest of Strong Cyclone 1/6/02
Page 21 and 22: II. Frontal / Weak Cyclogenesis Pat
Page 23 and 24: Example Case of Frontogenesis and B
Page 25 and 26: Surface 15 OCT 2001 00z 12z
Page 27 and 28: 18z 15 OCT 01 18z mosaic base refle
Page 29 and 30: Topeka, KS 12z 15 OCT 01
Page 31 and 32: Sloped Continuity of F 600 mb 6hr E
Page 33 and 34: Sloped Continuity of Frontogenesis
Page 35 and 36: Role of Deep-Layer Shear (cont.) Ma
Page 37 and 38: Mesoscale Band Variations - Band mo
Page 39 and 40: Mosaic Radar 8z 12/29/02 ‣ RUC 2h
Page 41 and 42: Banded - Warm Season 12Z 6/27/01 Tr
Page 43 and 44: Non-Banded 0256z 12/25/02
Page 45 and 46: Banded- Multiple 11/09/00 Montgomer
Page 47 and 48: Modulation of Band Intensity by Ins
Page 49 and 50: Using EPV to Measure Stability An e
Page 51 and 52: Cloud-Layer Stratificaiton Comparis
Page 53 and 54: 00z Soundings 10/22/02 Great Falls,
Page 55 and 56:
2/7/03 09Z RUC Forecast QPF/UVV
Page 57 and 58:
2/7/03 Mosaic Radar 1215z-0022z
Page 59 and 60:
Profiler - Plymouth, MA
Page 61 and 62:
Snowfall Accumulations 2/7/03 • I
Page 63 and 64:
Suggested Snow Band Checklist (cont
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Prediction of Frontogenetically Forced Precipitation Bands

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