Feasibility Study - Department of Transport

This feasibility study
This feasibility study describes and
quantifies the technical, economic,
environmental and social feasibility
of the proposal, and the associated
impacts and benefits. It includes
information in the following areas:
• the freight task – describes and
quantifies the current freight
task and the forecast growth in
the importing and exporting of
motor vehicles
• automotive supply chain –
describes how the supply chain
would work if motor vehicle
import and export activities were
relocated to the Port of Geelong
• environmental, social and
business impacts of relocation
to Geelong
• commercial and economic
considerations – including cost
impacts, employment benefits
and suggested commercial
models and governance
arrangements.
Webb Dock West represents an
alternative to relocation in Geelong
and is discussed at the end of
this study.
2. The freight task
Motor vehicle imports and exports
The discussion paper presented vehicle import and
export forecasts to 2050, assuming ongoing local
manufacturing at current levels.
Industry submitters to the discussion paper generally
supported the forecasts.
The forecasts were reviewed during the feasibility study,
including analysis of the impact of different scenarios for
local manufacturing and exporting.
Two demand scenarios are evaluated in this
feasibility study:
• imports and exports continue in line with the
forecasts set out in the discussion paper
• imports continue in line with the forecasts
set out in the discussion paper but exports
continue at a reduced level consistent with
recent trends (approximately 40-50,000 vehicles
exported annually).
Related and general cargoes
Motor vehicles are imported and exported on Roll-on
Roll-off vessels (RoRo). Some of these vessels also
carry a small proportion of general and break-bulk
cargoes, including:
• High and Heavy (HiHe) vehicles such as combine
harvesters, tractors and excavators
Demand forecasts adopted for this feasibility study
2015 2020 2025 2035 2050
Demand Task 1 – Import/Export
Import Vehicles 375,000 472,000 560,000 790,000 1,252,000
Export Vehicles 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000
TOTAL 485,000 582,000 670,000 900,000 1,362,000
Demand Task 2 – Import/Export
Import Vehicles 375,000 472,000 560,000 790,000 1,252,000
Export Vehicles 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000
TOTAL 415,000 512,000 600,000 830,000 1,292,000
Sources: Port of Melbourne Corporation 2010 (Total and CAGR to 2035), Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and
industry discussions (Exports), Study team (2050 CAGR and forecasts to align with long term strategic port planning)
Feasibility Study Relocating motor vehicle importing and exporting to the Port of Geelong 5