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Objectives • New drug approval process • Pricing of new drugs • Off ...

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3/15/13%<br />

25.0<br />

National Health Expenditures as a Share <strong>of</strong><br />

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 2008<br />

Projection<br />

% <strong>of</strong> GDP<br />

20.0<br />

15.0<br />

10.0<br />

5.0<br />

0.0<br />

1960<br />

1962<br />

1964<br />

1966<br />

1968<br />

1970<br />

1972<br />

1974<br />

1976<br />

1978<br />

1980<br />

1982<br />

1984<br />

1986<br />

1988<br />

1990<br />

1992<br />

Source: CMS, <strong>Off</strong>ice <strong>of</strong> the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group.<br />

1994<br />

1996<br />

1998<br />

2000<br />

2002<br />

2004<br />

2006<br />

2008<br />

2010<br />

2012<br />

2014<br />

2016<br />

2018<br />

2020<br />

The Value Decision<br />

Unattractive<br />

The “Easy<br />

No” (More<br />

expensive and<br />

less effective)<br />

Standard<br />

<strong>of</strong> care<br />

The Dilemma<br />

(Less expensive<br />

and less effective)<br />

Change in costs<br />

The Challenge<br />

(More expensive<br />

and more<br />

effective)<br />

Change in effects<br />

The “Easy<br />

Yes” (Less<br />

expensive and<br />

more effective)<br />

Value<br />

Threshold<br />

Attractive<br />

The <strong>Pricing</strong> Channel:<br />

Cost vs. Clinical Value<br />

Cost per Course <strong>of</strong> Therapy<br />

Trend Line<br />

90% confidence limits<br />

Ref.:%Easton%Associates,%LLC%<br />

Clinical Value<br />

15%

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