Current Titles in Wildland Fire, May 2012 - Association for Fire Ecology

Current Titles in Wildland Fire, May 2012
Author(s): Fordham, D. A., Resit Akcakaya, H., Araujo, M. B., Elith, J., Keith, D. A., Pearson, R.,
Auld, T. D., Mellin, C., Morgan, J. W., Regan, T. J., Tozer, M., Watts, M. J., White, M., Wintle, B.
A., Yates, C. And Brook, B. W.
Title: Plant Extinction Risk Under Climate Change: Are Forecast Range Shifts Alone A Good
Indicator of Species Vulnerability to Global Warming
Source: Global Change Biology 18: 1357-1371 Year: 2012 Keywords: Climate Ecology
Abstract: Models that Couple Habitat Suitability With Demographic Processes Offer A
Potentially Improved Approach for Estimating Spatial Distributional Shifts and Extinction Risk
Under Climate change. Applying Such An Approach to Five Species of Australian Plants With
Contrasting Demographic Traits, We Show That: (i) Predicted Climate-driven Changes in Range
Area Are sensitive to the Underlying Habitat Model, Regardless of Whether Demographic
Traits and Their Interaction With Habitat Patch Configuration Are Modeled Explicitly; and (ii)
Caution Should Be exercised When Using Predicted Changes in Total Habitat Suitability or
Geographic Extent to Infer Extinction Risk, Because the Relationship Between These Metrics is
Often Weak. Measures of extinction Risk, Which Quantify Threats to Population Persistence,
Are Particularly Sensitive to Life-history Traits, Such as Recruitment Response to Fire, Which
Explained Approximately 60% of the Deviance in Expected Minimum Abundance. Dispersal
Dynamics and Habitat Patch Structure Have the Strongest Influence on the Amount of
Movement of the Trailing and Leading Edge of the Range Margin, Explaining Roughly 40% of
Modeled Structural Deviance. These Results Underscore the Need to Consider Direct
Measures of Extinction Risk (population Declines and other Measures of Stochastic Viability),
as Well as Measures of Change in Habitat Area, When Assessing Climate Change Impacts on
Biodiversity. Furthermore, Direct Estimation of Extinction risk Incorporates Important
Demographic and Ecosystem Processes, Which Potentially Influence Species' Vulnerability to
Extinction Due to Climate Change. How to Locate: Contact Damien.fordham@adelaide.edu.au
Author(s): Fraver, S., Palik, B. J.
Title: Stand and Cohort Structures of Old-growth Pinus Resinosa-dominated Forests of
Northern Minnesota, Usa
Source: Journal of Vegetation Science 23: 249-259 Year: 2012 Keywords: Ecology Abstract:
the Wide Range of Stand and Age-cohort Structures in These Old-growth P. Resinosa Stands
Depicts Pre-settlement Forests More Complex Than Those of the Single-cohort, Post-standreplacing-fire
Model that Has Guided Regional Forest Management. Within-stand Patchiness
of Cohort Age Structures Implies Disturbances Operating at Scales Smaller Than Typically
Associated with This Regional Forest Type. Presence of Non-pine "ingrowth' on All Sites Might
Suggest that P. Resinosa Stands Supporting These Species Lie Within the Natural Range of
Variability for This community Type, Representing Situations in Which Surface Fires Did Not
Occur for Extended Periods or Were Spatially Patchy at the Stand Scale. The Diversity of
Reference Conditions documented Here Suggests Targets that Might Guide Ecological
Restoration Prescriptions for These Ecosystems, With the Goal of Reintroducing Structural and
Compositional Complexity reflecting Natural Disturbance and Stand Development. How to
Locate: Contact Sfraver@fs.fed.us
26