Application of Climate Predictions and Simulation Models for the ...
Application of Climate Predictions and Simulation Models for the ...
Application of Climate Predictions and Simulation Models for the ...
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State <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> art <strong>of</strong> climate predictions<br />
achieved within <strong>the</strong> NMA<br />
Medium-range <strong>for</strong>ecasts (up to 7 days in advance)<br />
-based on numerical wea<strong>the</strong>r prediction models <strong>and</strong><br />
statistical methods<br />
Long-range <strong>for</strong>ecasts:<br />
• Monthly <strong>for</strong>ecasts - using statistical methods: analogies,<br />
self-regressive models<br />
• Seasonal <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
Seasonal <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
- based on <strong>the</strong> integration <strong>of</strong> statistical methods<br />
(conditional probabilities, autoregressive model <strong>and</strong><br />
multi-field analog prediction)<br />
- lead time: 3 months <strong>and</strong> 1-3 seasons
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