California's need for speed - Steer Davies Gleave

the review
North American Edition
Fire and ice: sharing a vision for the future • Portland’s light rail neighborhoods
Combating climate change • How accurate are toll road forecasts
California’s need for speed
Issue 01 May 2008
NA01-01

Features
tt California’s need for speed
tt How accurate are toll road forecasts
tt Fire and ice: sharing a vision for the future
tt Combating climate change
tt Portland’s light rail neighborhoods
Opening comment
Welcome to our first North American edition
of The Review. Over the past 30 years, Steer
Davies Gleave has built up a reputation as
the UK’s premier transportation consulting
business and now has a network of 13 offices
around the world. With the opening of our
New York office in January 2008 – our third
office in North America – we felt it was time to
produce a publication that better addressed
the interests and needs of our North American
partners and clients.
And the timing couldn’t be better – 2008 is
already proving to be an exciting year for
transportation in North America. On a global
level, the issues are common: the role of
transportation in combating and contributing
to climate change, growing aspirations from
users with regard to quality transit and the
fundamental challenge of how to fund and
finance important capital programs and
ongoing operations. But nowhere else is the
debate so critical as we watch the race for the
White House with eagerness, the debate for the
legacy of SAFETEA-LU, the implementation of
the $37 billion Building Canada plan and the
increasing role for public private partnerships.
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In this issue, we look at the key characteristics
of a successful high speed line as California
considers whether it would be right for them,
what transportation policies the UK is looking
into to tackle climate change and a perspective
on transit-oriented development, amongst
other things.
California’s need for speed
By Richard Middleton
The world is no stranger to high speed rail
– it’s now been over 50 years since the first
Shinkansen high speed rail line opened
between Tokyo and Kyoto and Japan’s
bullet trains have become renowned for
their speed and punctuality. Europe has
also established an impressive network
of high speed lines since the Paris to
Lyon TGV began operating in 1981, and
extensive expansion is continuing to
spread rapidly throughout the continent.
In the US, however, railroads never seemed
to quite get back on track since their drastic
decline in the 1950s and 60s and high speed
rail has certainly been a rare thought in the
American transportation consciousness –
until recently. A few weeks ago, California’s
governor Arnold Schwarzenegger hosted
an information day for the development of
a high speed rail network. The proposed
Californian High Speed Rail (CHSR) network
is a highly ambitious project, which would be
funded through a public private partnership
and cover some 1100 miles from Sacramento
and San Francisco, down through Los
Angeles to San Diego.
With plans to operate at speeds of over
200mph, the CHSR would be the first real
high speed corridor in the United States.
While the Northeast is also working on a
fast line between Boston, New York and
Washington DC, the North-East corridor is
looking at maximizing the operational
speed along an existing rail infrastructure
rather than constructing a whole new
railway alignment.
Steer Davies Gleave has worked with both
sponsors and operators of high speed
railways over the last 20 years and is
currently providing input on the Portuguese
and Italian systems. From our European
experience, we have put together some of
the key characteristics of a successful high
speed line.
Demography – ideally demand should be
concentrated in a few high density cities,
spaced some distance apart, with little in
between to require the trains to slow down
or stop. The Spanish network would be
a good example. The linear nature of the
Italian network, running down the ‘spine’
of the country also benefits the design, by
avoiding too many spur operations.
The proposed Californian route also runs
predominantly north – south, connecting a
number of very large centers of population.
Recent work suggests this area is becoming
a mega region (Planning for Megaregions –
Journal of Planning Literature 2007); perhaps
comparable with Tokyo-Osaka, another very
successful high speed train route.
Frequency – most high speed train corridors
operate at high frequencies providing
between 120-160 trains a day. These trains
often provide capacities of 700-1,000 a train
– operating both duplex and double train
formations.
I hope that you find the material useful and
stimulating and welcome your thoughts on
the issues surrounding our industry.
2
Mike Goggin
Head of North
American Operations

News in brief
Rail market share (%)
Rail
market
share (%)
This high capacity enables the operator to
offer a number of different product offers
on the same train and be competitive
with other modes, typically air and
conventional train in Europe. The proposed
Californian operation compares well with
this approach with 128 trains a day in each
direction being proposed for the corridor;
operating up to 1,100 seats a train.
Competition – as mentioned, air and
conventional rail are the main competitors
to high speed rail; with conventional rail
virtually non existent in California, it will
be interesting to see how the new
services impact on a very entrenched
and professional air market. The table
below shows the increases in market
share achieved by a number of high
speed introductions. Traditionally high
speed introductions have seen little transfer
from the car market. This might be different
in California, especially with the introduction
of strong environmental legislation of the
same period.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Frankfurt-Cologne
London - Manchester
London - Brussels
Madrid - Seville
London - Paris
Paris - Maeseille
Madrid - Barcelona
00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00
Rail journey time
Rome- Milan
Cost – costs of high speed rail (186+mph)
100%
has come down Frankf urt-Cologne in recent years, with both
90%
Spain and France Madrid-Seville achieving a construction
80%
London-Manchest er London-Paris
cost 70% of under $10million per mile for their
Pari s-Marsei lle
60%
London-Brus sels
latest schemes.
However, tunnels and viaducts probably
increase the cost by a factor of up to five
and steep gradients also increases cost,
as does movement though urban areas. In
fact, some recent schemes have chosen to
run underground rather than disturb major
urban areas, an example of this would be
the High Speed 2 link into London.
Risks – because risks vary with the
different stages in the development of a
high speed scheme, it is essential that
the various risks are assigned to the
party (public or private) that is in the best
position to handle that risk. Construction
risk all but disappears once the line is
operational (except for residual defects);
demand and revenue risk reduces over
time as a history is built up of actual
service; while operation risk continues the
length of the concession and might even
be the subject of sharp peaks, for example
if a new generation of trains is introduced.
California will be holding a referendum in
November this year as to whether it should
proceed with the development of its high
speed network at this time. If successful,
Steer Davies Gleave will be looking forward
to playing an active role in its development
over the next decade.
An expert in railways, Richard leads SDG’s
rail projects outside the UK, in particular
supporting operators, investors and
government sponsors in the restructuring
and commercial development of the
industry and in developing, bidding and
awarding rail concessions and franchises.
To find out more or discuss further contact
richard.middleton@sdgworld.net
Peering into Ottawa’s future
Steer Davies Gleave is taking part in a peer
review panel to look at Ottawa’s long-term
transit investment plans that will help shape
the city’s future. While the peer review
initially examined proposals to upgrade
the city’s current busway system, the panel
has posed a series of key challenges for the
city that go beyond a ‘transit only’ review.
Looking out to 2031, the panel wanted
a clearer view of what role Ottawa would
have as a 21st century capital city and has
recommended a concentration on higher
density, more sustainable land use within the
existing Green Belt, supported by the busway
being upgraded to light rail, including an
extension to serve the international airport. A
fully integrated network would also see major
investment in bus and streetcar systems.
All go in Atlanta
Host of the 1996 Olympics and the world
headquarters of Coca Cola, Atlanta is
developing a long-term transportation
plan as part of its aim to be one of North
America’s premier cities. Steer Davies Gleave
is bringing our European/World experience
and expertise in evaluation methodologies
to the project. Our input has covered the
latest innovations in transit and an emphasis
on integrated solutions incorporating
transit investment, transportation demand
management and stronger links to
sustainable land use policies. We will also
be advising on comprehensive, multi-modal
strategy evaluation techniques as the
strategy work develops.
The carbon calculator
It is clear that minimizing CO 2
emissions
and impacts on climate change is becoming
a bigger priority for organizations around
the world. Steer Davies Gleave recently
developed a ‘carbon calculator’ for the
European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development to determine CO 2
emissions
from potential local transportation projects.
The calculator was developed by classifying
potential transportation investments,
including bus fleets and tram/light-rail
systems. They were assessed based on
the degree to which the investment would
encourage individuals to use their cars less,
in favor of more sustainable modes of travel.
3

How accurate are
toll road forecasts
By Anita Mauchan and Charles Russell
Planners and decision makers have always
needed traffic forecasts – they relied on
good analysis to develop their plans and
determine what new infrastructure should
be built. But what was the penalty if their
forecasts were wrong Now, with private
investment decisions depending on traffic
and revenue projections, the pressure has
surely changed.
Steer Davies Gleave regularly prepares
traffic demand and revenue forecasts for
privately funded infrastructure projects,
especially toll roads, tunnels and bridges.
We acknowledge that predicting the future
isn’t easy and consequently, although
deriving a view of the future is a key
aspect of the work, equal effort is put into
quantifying areas of uncertainty and risk.
A few years ago, there was real concern
when ratings agency Standard and Poor’s
published a paper claiming that traffic
levels on toll roads are typically over
forecast by 20-30%, which they attributed
to a clear case of “optimism bias”.
While we had never formally reviewed
our forecasts, feedback from clients
didn’t match this finding. There was only
one thing to do. We carried out our own
research to determine the accuracy of our
toll road forecasts.
Frequency
There were four factors, however, that
didn’t make it as simple as it sounds:
Client confidentiality – our reporting
must be general and can’t reveal specific
schemes or figures.
Scheme definition – opening dates and even
toll levels and categories are all subject to
change post-forecast.
Which forecasts – our forecasts reflect
different levels of probability, the values
adopted are ultimately the choice of our
client and may not represent what we believe
to be a most likely outcome.
Ramp up – it may take time for users to
adjust to new or changed routes and this can
be enhanced by delayed opening of sections
etc. Comparison of forecast and actual traffic
(outturn) should be undertaken once the
system has settled down.
Despite these challenges, we have
established a library of forecasts and
outturn traffic and revenue values.
Using this data, we assessed the accuracy
of our forecasts and learned some
valuable lessons.
Our research findings
The following comparison of forecasts and
actual traffic provide a broad indication
of our track record for schemes in which
outturn data are available.
Our research data is based on forecasts for
seven shadow toll roads in the UK and user
paid toll roads in Canada, Jamaica, South
Africa and Poland.
10 9876543210
9
3
2
0
1
0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2
Actual / Forecast Traffic
The results are tabulated in the figure below
which compares outturn and forecast traffic
on these 15 examples, where, importantly
‘ramp-up’ was considered to be complete.
We over-predicted by more than 5% in
one case, we were within 5% of outturn
in nine and we under-predicted by more
than 5% in five cases. The only scheme
that underperformed was influenced by an
unexpected external factor. The majority
of schemes that we under-forecast were
affected by a post-forecast toll reduction
which resulted in higher traffic flows.
The accuracy of our forecasts for two
toll roads in South Africa has also been
investigated by MTH Pycraft and I Macaulay
in their paper Demand Forecasting Risk in
Project Financing of Toll Facilities, University
of Witswatersrand (2006). With reference
to Standard & Poor’s paper, the authors
concluded that:
“The South African user-paid toll roads
scheduled performance [ratio of actual
traffic volume to forecast traffic volume] is
significantly greater or better than not only the
entire world results, but also the developing
nations scheduled performance results.”
In light of both these results, we are
confident that we deliver accurate forecasts
and a clear analysis of uncertainty and risk.
We will continue to update the database of
research, drawing on our findings to improve
our understanding of the demand for toll
facilities worldwide and are grateful for the
support our clients have given in assisting us
with this analysis.
Charles leads our infrastructure finance
team. His main focus is in the US where we
have advised on more than 20 transport
infrastructure projects in the last three years,
valuing $50 billion. Anita leads our work in
this area in Europe and Africa.
To find out more or discuss further contact
charles.russell@sdgworld.net
anita.mauchan@sdgworld.net
4

Fire and ice: Sacramento and
Edmonton share a vision for the future
By Alan Jones
It’s a tale of two cities. Sacramento,
California’s state capital, has a moderate
climate but its summers can easily reach
over 100F degrees. A thousand miles
north in Edmonton, Alberta’s capital,
temperatures can drop to as low as -40F
degrees in the winter.
Despite these differences, both cities are
facing very similar challenges regarding the
future shape and form of their land use,
and deciding how transit can play a part in
delivering a ‘smart growth’ future as they
anticipate continuing concerns of climate
change, greenhouse gas emissions, energy
prices and growing but aging populations.
Steer Davies Gleave is working with both
cities developing their long-term transit
plans. In Sacramento the region has made
a major effort to develop a 50 year land
use plan. Known as The Blueprint, the plan
is based on smart growth principles with
mixed use, higher density development and
greater transportation choice. To support
The Blueprint we are developing a long-term
Transit Master Plan (TMP) which will address
all aspects of the existing transit network.
Sacramento already has an enviable LRT
system with extensions and new lines being
planned. In addition, its bus fleet is
CNG-powered so there is already much to
build on. However, with a market share of
just 1%, there is still a long way to go in
changing the perceptions of what transit can
deliver and shift the thinking from it as a
lifeline service to a lifestyle choice. This is
where a European-style approach can help
produce an integrated solution. Addressing
the basics, we start by “putting the
passenger first”.
Service frequencies and coverage are
being examined alongside a consideration
of the whole transit trip: where do I find
transit information on routes and fares,
how do I get to the transit stop, how long
will I have to wait, do I need exact fare, can
I get a seat, do I feel safe, is it comfortable,
will I need to transfer and how do I get to
my final destination and back again
With so many barriers it is often just easier
to drive. But in answering these questions
we start to build a convenient and friendly
transit system with up-to-date information;
high quality, frequency and capacity
across all transit modes; easy-to-use fares
systems; easy access vehicles and helpful
way-finding linked to key destinations.
The links between land use and transit
investment are also key to the future
with transit-oriented development (TOD)
policies central to the TMP.
In Edmonton similar conditions apply. The
city already has an LRT system as its transit
backbone, with extensions to the early
1980’s system now underway. But Edmonton
has bigger plans for transit after 25 years of
car-oriented, low density development. Five
new LRT corridors are being planned with the
Mayor’s call for a 90-day Action Plan driving
the process forward.
Steer Davies Gleave is developing
Edmonton’s long-term public
transportation plan incorporating the LRT
Expansion Plan as well as a major review of
the city’s bus network. The links with land
use again feature in the development of
the transit plan.
A TOD Planning Framework is being
developed with a range of station types
being defined to help shape the land use
around each new station. Complete streets
are also being proposed for high frequency
bus corridors providing active frontages,
footways and bike facilities.
A recent design charrette focused on a
new development area in Heritage Valley,
a green-field site to the south of the
city where LRT is planned. The charrette
brought together city staff from planning,
engineering, smarter choices, parks, traffic,
transportation and transit together with
land owners, developers, school board and
Alberta Province representatives.
Over three days all the participants
contributed, moving from the original plan
for a car-dominated town centre plan to an
urban grid layout designed with the LRT
station as a focal point. This finer grain
street pattern provides wide sidewalks and
active building frontages, encouraging a
more interesting and higher value mix of
land uses. The charrette allowed us to test
the emerging TOD Planning Framework and
acted as a “decision accelerator”. If all the
participants follow through with the new
plan then Edmonton will be on its way to a
new, more transit-friendly future.
Alan has over 25 years’ experience leading
multi-disciplinary planning and design
teams to deliver high-quality integrated
transport solutions.
To find out more or discuss further contact
alan.jones@sdgworld.net
ian.druce@sdgworld.net
dan.gomez-duran@sdgworld.net
5

News in brief
Combating climate
change: a perspective
from the UK
By Chris Ferrary
Same question, different perspectives
Over the past year, Steer Davies Gleave
has advised the Department of Treasury of
New Jersey on the potential monetization
of its toll road assets. We are now working
to advise lenders in connection with the
acquisition of the Pennsylvania Turnpike. The
question for the sell side and the buy side is
essentially the same: What’s it worth $20,
$30, $60 billion
Bidding hello to TransTexas corridors
Principal Consultant Fintan Geraghty has
just completed a two-month secondment to
Zachry American Infrastructure’s (ZAI) offices
in San Antonio. Leading a team of Steer
Davies Gleave staff, he has been helping
ZAI/ACS prepare their bid for the TTC69
development program.
Linking Las Vegas
The Las Vegas Monorail is one of very few
fully private transit systems – certainly in the
US. Principal Consultant Maarten Kroes has
been working closely with the management
helping them explore how changes in their
ticket offer might impact their patronage
and their revenue.
Looking forward
It’s one step forward and one step back for
P3 toll roads. The moratorium in Texas, and
the recent Supreme Court decision in Virginia,
might suggest that the program is running
out of steam. But Florida, North Carolina –
and Texas – are still bringing projects to the
market. Steer Davies Gleave is supporting
clients in these and other markets.
While the debate in North America
continues over what contribution transit
can make to the national climate change
agenda, the discussion has moved on in
the UK. Over the past year Steer Davies
Gleave has encountered unprecedented
interest from UK clients wanting to better
understand the impacts of their travel to
climate change and how to reduce them.
Across business, industry and government,
organizations are beginning to see
the importance of reducing global CO 2
emissions from both an ethical and a
business standpoint. The UK transportation
sector, however, has been relatively slow
to respond. In 2004, CO 2
emissions from
the UK overall were almost 20% lower than
in 1970, and emissions from industry were
almost half what they had been. Much of
this was due to economic restructuring,
but many process industries made great
strides in energy efficiency and emissions
reduction over this time.
By contrast, even excluding aviation, CO 2
emissions from transportation doubled over
the same period. Even now, transportation
is the only sector of the UK economy where
carbon emissions continue to grow and are
projected to be higher in 2020 than they
were in 1990. Transportation policy needs
to play a central part if there is going to be a
real difference in climate change.
However, tackling transportation
emissions is especially challenging
because of our absolute dependence on
fossil fuels to move ourselves and our
goods around: 99% of all UK transportation
use oil products. And while the use of
alternative fuels is increasing, there are
profound difficulties in finding alternatives
to oil in aviation, shipping and longdistance
road transportation. 95% of all
goods in shops currently get there using
oil, making it difficult to decouple CO 2
emissions in the transportation sector
from economic growth.
There is a growing realization of the depth
of this problem and there seems to be a real
appetite to address it, but new approaches
are needed. Steer Davies Gleave is
developing ways to deal better with this
problem based on the following framework.
Understand the problem: All too often,
policy-makers simply don’t know what the
carbon impacts of the proposals they put
forward are, this has to be the starting point
for managing and reducing emissions.
Identify carbon targets/budgets and
the responses required to meet them:
Developing ‘carbon-friendly’ policies,
without knowing what we are aiming
for first typically results in a package of
ineffective measures.
Understand the limits of technology: Fuel
efficiency and alternative fuels can help,
but are not the panacea as some believe.
A clear vision of what else is needed to
combat the problem is also necessary.
Understand the role of behavior change:
There is increasing evidence that personal
travel planning can be at least as
important, if not more, than technology in
reducing emissions.
Implementing and selling the policies:
Policies have to be packaged and sold to
politicians and the public alike in terms
of what needs to be done to avoid climate
change catastrophe.
Measuring and monitoring: We need to
show that the policies we choose are
working, and that we are actively moving
towards meeting the targets that are set.
Chris Ferrary is an expert in environmental
and climate change consultancy with over
30 years’ experience.
To find out more or discuss further contact
chris.ferrary@sdgworld.net
6

Maxing the MAX: developing
Portland’s light rail neighborhoods
By Alan Jones
Portland is widely known for its
commitment to developing a sustainable
urban form, achieved through its Urban
Growth Boundary, a commitment to
regenerating its downtown area and major
investment in the Metropolitan Area
Express (MAX) light rail network, and more
recently its streetcar system.
As the MAX Light Rail network continues
to expand with the construction of a new
‘Green Line’ well under way, Steer Davies
Gleave has been brought in by the City
of Portland to develop detailed Station
Area Plans for two of the intermediate
stops on the line at Division Street and
Powell Boulevard. However, because both
stations are located in areas featuring a
suburban post 1950’s development form,
the low-density layout means that they
are not within easily walkable distances
and a range of solutions is needed to
address this challenge.
Our approach, dubbed “Maxing the MAX”,
has taken a fresh look at the scope to deploy
transit-oriented development techniques to
increase the ridership of the new MAX line,
and maximize the benefits of the new transit
investment for the local communities. A
design charrette was used to hear the views
of Portland’s Department of Transport (DoT),
Metro, TriMet and the Portland Development
Commission. Working with sub-consultants
Glatting Jackson, we developed a series of
proposals that ranged from immediate lowcost
improvements through to a long-term
vision for each station area.
With the Green Line constructed within the
I-205 freeway right of way, we have focused
short-term improvements on improving
safety for transit riders and improving
transfer between existing bus routes and
the new Light Rail system. The next stage
involves developing a network of 10-
minute walk and bike routes with solutions
including a new bridge (pedestrian and bike
only) across the freeway to provide easy
access from local neighborhoods.
Looking at the longer term, we have
proposed a program of street changes,
with wider footways and ‘traffic calming’
techniques, to change the feel of the
station areas – while they will not become
totally car-free, they will at least not be a
car free-for-all.
Looking further into the future, redundant
land owned by the Oregon DoT within
the freeway right of way is also being
reviewed to add to the station area plans
and their aim of creating walkable urban
areas within easy access to MAX. Our
approach to station area development has
also looked at new funding mechanisms,
which would be applicable across the
MAX network as Portland looks to develop
sustainable neighborhoods around other
MAX stations, and enhancing the quality of
life for those communities.
To find out more or discuss further contact
alan.jones@sdgworld.net
ian.druce@sdgworld.net
7

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Steer Davies Gleave is a leading
independent transportation
management consultancy providing
services to government, operators,
regulators, promoters, financiers and
other interest groups. Founded 30 years
ago and with more than 350 consultants
worldwide, we have an unparalleled
breadth of specialist expertise available
for our clients. We welcome the
opportunity for an informal discussion
on prospective consulting assignments.
Contact us at sdginfo@sdgworld.net
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Staff profile
Eva Hage
Associate
Eva is a senior business
advisor and management
consultant with extensive
experience in assisting clients with
economic appraisal and financing of
major capital projects. Her clients include
companies in the transport, real estate,
utility, finance and public sectors.
What made you decide to work in
transport consultancy Like many things
in life, it was decided for me. When I moved
to Vancouver I got a job at a government
agency overseeing the development of
strategic and business plans at Crown
Corporations (corporations owned by the
provincial government). Mine happened
to be the transportation corporations and I
have continued working with transportation
issues from various perspectives, mainly
financial, ever since.
What is the best thing about your job
Constantly learning new things. and meeting
people from all over the world.
What would you do if you weren’t
working in transportation consultancy
Hhmm. It is a toss up between building
furniture and running my own nursery
(for plants).
What couldn’t you live without
Coffee.
What do you think is the biggest
challenge facing the transportation
industry today Rising fuel prices and
increased congestion in cities means that
we can no longer go about our lives the way
we used to – and finding new alternatives
means changing the way we live, work, plan
our cities, how we get around and even
down to how we interact with family and
friends. Transportation affects every facet of
life, and that is what makes it a fascinating
field to work in.
What is the best advice you have
ever received Smile.
Who do you most admire and why
My husband for his insights, humour
and integrity.