California's need for speed - Steer Davies Gleave

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Features tt California’s need for speed tt How accurate are toll road forecasts tt Fire and ice: sharing a vision for the future tt Combating climate change tt Portland’s light rail neighborhoods Opening comment Welcome to our first North American edition of The Review. Over the past 30 years, Steer Davies Gleave has built up a reputation as the UK’s premier transportation consulting business and now has a network of 13 offices around the world. With the opening of our New York office in January 2008 – our third office in North America – we felt it was time to produce a publication that better addressed the interests and needs of our North American partners and clients. And the timing couldn’t be better – 2008 is already proving to be an exciting year for transportation in North America. On a global level, the issues are common: the role of transportation in combating and contributing to climate change, growing aspirations from users with regard to quality transit and the fundamental challenge of how to fund and finance important capital programs and ongoing operations. But nowhere else is the debate so critical as we watch the race for the White House with eagerness, the debate for the legacy of SAFETEA-LU, the implementation of the $37 billion Building Canada plan and the increasing role for public private partnerships. p2 p4 p5 p6 p7 In this issue, we look at the key characteristics of a successful high speed line as California considers whether it would be right for them, what transportation policies the UK is looking into to tackle climate change and a perspective on transit-oriented development, amongst other things. California’s need for speed By Richard Middleton The world is no stranger to high speed rail – it’s now been over 50 years since the first Shinkansen high speed rail line opened between Tokyo and Kyoto and Japan’s bullet trains have become renowned for their speed and punctuality. Europe has also established an impressive network of high speed lines since the Paris to Lyon TGV began operating in 1981, and extensive expansion is continuing to spread rapidly throughout the continent. In the US, however, railroads never seemed to quite get back on track since their drastic decline in the 1950s and 60s and high speed rail has certainly been a rare thought in the American transportation consciousness – until recently. A few weeks ago, California’s governor Arnold Schwarzenegger hosted an information day for the development of a high speed rail network. The proposed Californian High Speed Rail (CHSR) network is a highly ambitious project, which would be funded through a public private partnership and cover some 1100 miles from Sacramento and San Francisco, down through Los Angeles to San Diego. With plans to operate at speeds of over 200mph, the CHSR would be the first real high speed corridor in the United States. While the Northeast is also working on a fast line between Boston, New York and Washington DC, the North-East corridor is looking at maximizing the operational speed along an existing rail infrastructure rather than constructing a whole new railway alignment. Steer Davies Gleave has worked with both sponsors and operators of high speed railways over the last 20 years and is currently providing input on the Portuguese and Italian systems. From our European experience, we have put together some of the key characteristics of a successful high speed line. Demography – ideally demand should be concentrated in a few high density cities, spaced some distance apart, with little in between to require the trains to slow down or stop. The Spanish network would be a good example. The linear nature of the Italian network, running down the ‘spine’ of the country also benefits the design, by avoiding too many spur operations. The proposed Californian route also runs predominantly north – south, connecting a number of very large centers of population. Recent work suggests this area is becoming a mega region (Planning for Megaregions – Journal of Planning Literature 2007); perhaps comparable with Tokyo-Osaka, another very successful high speed train route. Frequency – most high speed train corridors operate at high frequencies providing between 120-160 trains a day. These trains often provide capacities of 700-1,000 a train – operating both duplex and double train formations. I hope that you find the material useful and stimulating and welcome your thoughts on the issues surrounding our industry. 2 Mike Goggin Head of North American Operations
News in brief Rail market share (%) Rail market share (%) This high capacity enables the operator to offer a number of different product offers on the same train and be competitive with other modes, typically air and conventional train in Europe. The proposed Californian operation compares well with this approach with 128 trains a day in each direction being proposed for the corridor; operating up to 1,100 seats a train. Competition – as mentioned, air and conventional rail are the main competitors to high speed rail; with conventional rail virtually non existent in California, it will be interesting to see how the new services impact on a very entrenched and professional air market. The table below shows the increases in market share achieved by a number of high speed introductions. Traditionally high speed introductions have seen little transfer from the car market. This might be different in California, especially with the introduction of strong environmental legislation of the same period. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Frankfurt-Cologne London - Manchester London - Brussels Madrid - Seville London - Paris Paris - Maeseille Madrid - Barcelona 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 Rail journey time Rome- Milan Cost – costs of high speed rail (186+mph) 100% has come down Frankf urt-Cologne in recent years, with both 90% Spain and France Madrid-Seville achieving a construction 80% London-Manchest er London-Paris cost 70% of under $10million per mile for their Pari s-Marsei lle 60% London-Brus sels latest schemes. However, tunnels and viaducts probably increase the cost by a factor of up to five and steep gradients also increases cost, as does movement though urban areas. In fact, some recent schemes have chosen to run underground rather than disturb major urban areas, an example of this would be the High Speed 2 link into London. Risks – because risks vary with the different stages in the development of a high speed scheme, it is essential that the various risks are assigned to the party (public or private) that is in the best position to handle that risk. Construction risk all but disappears once the line is operational (except for residual defects); demand and revenue risk reduces over time as a history is built up of actual service; while operation risk continues the length of the concession and might even be the subject of sharp peaks, for example if a new generation of trains is introduced. California will be holding a referendum in November this year as to whether it should proceed with the development of its high speed network at this time. If successful, Steer Davies Gleave will be looking forward to playing an active role in its development over the next decade. An expert in railways, Richard leads SDG’s rail projects outside the UK, in particular supporting operators, investors and government sponsors in the restructuring and commercial development of the industry and in developing, bidding and awarding rail concessions and franchises. To find out more or discuss further contact richard.middleton@sdgworld.net Peering into Ottawa’s future Steer Davies Gleave is taking part in a peer review panel to look at Ottawa’s long-term transit investment plans that will help shape the city’s future. While the peer review initially examined proposals to upgrade the city’s current busway system, the panel has posed a series of key challenges for the city that go beyond a ‘transit only’ review. Looking out to 2031, the panel wanted a clearer view of what role Ottawa would have as a 21st century capital city and has recommended a concentration on higher density, more sustainable land use within the existing Green Belt, supported by the busway being upgraded to light rail, including an extension to serve the international airport. A fully integrated network would also see major investment in bus and streetcar systems. All go in Atlanta Host of the 1996 Olympics and the world headquarters of Coca Cola, Atlanta is developing a long-term transportation plan as part of its aim to be one of North America’s premier cities. Steer Davies Gleave is bringing our European/World experience and expertise in evaluation methodologies to the project. Our input has covered the latest innovations in transit and an emphasis on integrated solutions incorporating transit investment, transportation demand management and stronger links to sustainable land use policies. We will also be advising on comprehensive, multi-modal strategy evaluation techniques as the strategy work develops. The carbon calculator It is clear that minimizing CO 2 emissions and impacts on climate change is becoming a bigger priority for organizations around the world. Steer Davies Gleave recently developed a ‘carbon calculator’ for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to determine CO 2 emissions from potential local transportation projects. The calculator was developed by classifying potential transportation investments, including bus fleets and tram/light-rail systems. They were assessed based on the degree to which the investment would encourage individuals to use their cars less, in favor of more sustainable modes of travel. 3
Page 1: the review North American Edition F
Page 5 and 6: Fire and ice: Sacramento and Edmont
Page 7 and 8: Maxing the MAX: developing Portland

California's need for speed - Steer Davies Gleave

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