Forecasters Guide - (IMD), Pune

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CHPATER 7 LOCAL FORECAST A detailed forecasting circular (No. 1/2000) has been issued regarding the issuance of local forecast in user friendly language in the year 2000. Later on, there have been some modifications on the terminologies for rainfall, sky conditions, etc. Incorporating these changes, the instructions related to the issuance of local forecast are given in Appendix 7.1 Also, there w as an AMR decision on Comfort Index based local forecasts, in order to enhance their utility during the hot w eather season. It is given in Appendix 7.2. The instructions given in Appendix 7.3 restrict the usage of may, chance and similar words resounding uncertainties in local forecasts. 33
8.1 Evaluation of the procedure CHAPTER 8 FORECAST VERIFICATION In order to document the evolution of the forecast verification procedures, the first ever formulated set of instructions in <strong>IMD</strong> regarding the same is included as Appendix 8.1. The present practice of verification of forecasts w hich exists for sub-divisional rainfall dates back to 1962 (Appendix 8.1). Some of the subsequent circulars suggesting minor modifications to the prevailing practices are appended (Appendices 8.2 & 8.3). 8.2 Current Verification Methodology It w as decided by the Annual Monsoon Review Meeting – 2007 to make the forecast verification results, more quantitative in order to present it in terms of various skill scores. Accordingly, a set of instructions has been formulated describing the methodology by which various skill scores to be calculated and also a schedule for the issuance and verification of the local forecasts. This is available in Appendix 8.4. 34
Page 4 and 5: FORECASTERS’ GUIDE CONTENTS Page
Page 6 and 7: 3.2.4 RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE RECO
Page 8 and 9: DEFINITIONS Pressure: The pressure
Page 10 and 11: FORECASTING ORGANISATION (NON-AVIAT
Page 12 and 13: S.No. Category/ Meteorological Offi
Page 14 and 15: S.No. Category/ Meteorological Offi
Page 16 and 17: as to reduce the death and damage f
Page 18 and 19: pressure tendency and pressure anom
Page 20 and 21: CHAPTER 3 TERMINOLOGIES IN WEATHER
Page 22 and 23: CHAPTER 5 IMPORTANT PROCEDURES DURI
Page 24 and 25: of Bengal. However, the additional
Page 26 and 27: terrestrial links are disrupted. Th
Page 28 and 29: (3) Police W/T Any action required
Page 30 and 31: Action taken by w arnees The action
Page 32 and 33: Special observations from surface o
Page 34 and 35: Other Registers Though the above th
Page 36 and 37: Coastal Station : Name Surface Wind
Page 38 and 39: Annexure I FORMAT OF CYCLONE WARNIN
Page 42 and 43: MAP SHOWING THE 36 METEOROLOGICAL S
Page 44 and 45: 2.2 CHANGES IN SHIPS’ AND UPPER A
Page 46: 2.4 ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR CHARTS. F
Page 52 and 53: 2.7 W3 CHARTS DDGM (WF) UOI No.W-39
Page 54 and 55: 3. TERMINOLOGY: 3.1 RAI NFAL L 3.1.
Page 56 and 57: 3.1.3 INTRODUCTION OF EXTREM ELY HE
Page 58 and 59: 3.1.5 TERMINOLOGY OF RAINFALL DISTR
Page 60 and 61: 1.5 When a station satisfies both t
Page 62 and 63: Wind-chill equivalent temperature (
Page 65 and 66: 3.2.3 DESCRIBING NORMAL TEMPERATURE
Page 67 and 68: 3.2.5 DESCRIPTION OF 24 HRS TEMPERA
Page 69 and 70: 3.3.2 DESCRIPTION OF PRESSURE GRADI
Page 71 and 72: 3.4. NOMENCLATURE FOR DIFFERENT PAR
Page 73 and 74: 4. WEATHER FORECASTS, BULLETINS AND
Page 75 and 76: 4.2 SECOND FARMER’S WEATHER BULLE
Page 77 and 78: 4.4. ISSUE OF WEEKLY WEATHER MAPS.
Page 79 and 80: 4.6. COMPACTNESS OF WEATHER BULLETI
Page 81 and 82: 2.1 Free supply of the RDWR of the
Page 83 and 84: 5. MONSOON PROCEDURES 5.1 ONSET/ WI
Page 85: II Further advance of monsoon over
Page 88 and 89: Normal for these stations Average n
Page 90 and 91:
5.2.3 SUBDUED MONSOON ACTIVITY FORE
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5.2.5 HIGH TEMPERATURE EPOCHS WHICH
Page 94 and 95:
5.3 CRITERIA FOR DECLARING ONSET OF
Page 96 and 97:
6. PROCEDURES DURING THE CYCLONE PE
Page 98 and 99:
6.2. CRUCIAL OBSERVATIONS RESPONSIB
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6.4 PRE CYCLONE PROCEDURES Forecast
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6.5 WARNINGS FOR STRONG WINDS EXPEC
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Date and Time of Issue …………
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CYCLONE WARNING: 4. Format of Cyclo
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NOTES : a] In the bulletins for gen
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6.7 UNIFORMITY IN MAINTAINING THE I
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6.9 INSTRUCTIONS FOR RMCS / MCS FOR
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public is interested to know about
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4. Wind : For indicating forecast w
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“Mainly clear skies; Maximum temp
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HEAT INDEX °F (°C) RELATIVE HUMID
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Verification of Local Forecast The
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STAGES OF VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS
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2.4 Expression of confidence Foreca
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11.3 Marks allotted to various elem
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1..3.1.2 Height of tops 4 (i) Less
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2.3 Upper air temperatures 3 Same a
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-6 to -8 -3 to -4 Appreciably fall
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RULES OF V ERIFICA TION OF FORECAST
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8.2 LOCAL FORECAST VERIFICATION FOR
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Format for Local Forecast issued at
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8.4 REVISED FORECAST VERIFICATION M
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DETERMINISTIC FORECAST Annexure I (
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VERIFICATION OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIO
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Forecasters Guide - (IMD), Pune

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