Mapping of Drought Areas over India - (IMD), Pune

AbstractMapping of the extreme events is one of the adaptation strategies toconsequences of increasing climatic variability and climate changes. Drought is oneof the short-term extreme event. There is no operational practice to forecast thedrought. One of the suggestions is to update mapping of drought prone areas fordevelopmental planning. In the present study, authors have tried to computedistrictwise drought probabilities all over India for 319 districts having long dataseries of rainfall. Mapping for moderate and severe drought probabilities for India forvarious districts has been done and regions belonging to different class intervals ofprobabilities of drought have been demarcated. Such type of information would be agood tool for planning purposes and for input in modelling.3

TABLE: ARegionSub-divisions1. Northwest India Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, EastRajasthan, West Rajasthan, GujaratRegion, Saurashtra & Kutch andPunjab.2. West Central India East Madhya Pradesh, West MadhyaPradesh, Konkan and Goa, MadhyaMaharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha,Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.3. Peninsular India Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema,Tamilnadu and Puducherry, Kerala,Coastal Karnataka, South InteriorKarnataka.4. Central Northeast India Jharkhand, Bihar, Orissa, East UttarPradesh, West Uttar Pradesh.5. Northeast India Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland,Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim andGangetic West Bengal.6. Hilly region Jammu and Kashmir, HimachalPradesh, Uttarakhand.Table 1 (a,b,c,d,e,f) represents the probabilities for the subdivisions as in theNorthwest region.In the Northwest region, in the subdivisions Haryana, Chandigarh& Delhi, East Rajasthan,West Rajasthan, Gujarat Region, Saurashtra & Kutch andPunjab, the probabilities of moderate drought vary from 17 to 24%, 14 to 28%, 17 to25%, 14 to 25%, 16 to 25% and 12 to 30% respectively.Whereas the probabilities ofsevere drought for the above said subdivisions vary from 2 –14%,1-13%, 7-17%, 2-15%, 10-30% and 1-17% respectively.3

Table 2 (a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h) represents the probabilities for the West Centralregion. In West Central India, in the subdivisions, East Madhya.Pradesh, WestMadhya Pradesh, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha,Telangana and North Interior Karnataka, the probabilities of moderate drought varyfrom 06-22%,12-25%, 8-16%, 5-19%, 15-26%, 11-20%,10-24% and 9-28%respectively. The probabilities of severe drought for the same subdivisions as abovevary from 1-4%, 1-8%, 1 -4%, 1-6%, 2-6%, 1-2% 1-3% and 1-6% respectively.Table 3 (a,b,c,d,e,f) represents the probabilities for the Peninsular region. InPeninsular region, in the sub-divisions Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema,Tamilnadu and Puducherry, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala,the probabilities of moderate drought vary from 6-22%, 9-24%, 8-27%, 3-4%, 7-27%,5-25% respectively. The probabilities of severe drought for the above sub-divisionsvary from 1-3%, 1-4%, 1-18%, 0-1%, 1-3% and 1-3% respectively.Table 4(a,b,c,d,e) represents the probabilities in the Central Northeast region.In Central Northeast region, in the subdivisions Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, East UttarPradesh and West Uttar Pradesh the probabilities of moderate drought vary from 6-21%, 6-13%, 6-19%, 10-37%, 7-29% respectively.The probabilities of severe droughtfor the above sub-divisions except Jharkhand vary from 1-3%, 1-2%, 1-5%, 1-10%respectively. Jharkhand has experienced no severe drought.Table 5(a,b,c,d) represents the probabilities in North-east region. In the Northeastregion, in the sub-divisions Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur,Mizoram and Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Gangetic WestBengal the probabilities of moderate drought vary from 1-14%, 7-14%, 6-16%, 8-26% respectively.The probabilities of severe drought for the above said sub-divisionsvary from 1-3%, 1-2%, 1-3%, 0- 3% respectively.Table 6 (a,b,c) represents the probabilities in the hilly regions of India. In thehilly region, the sub-divisions Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand,the probabilities of moderate drought vary from 10-29%, 9-31%, 14-27%,respectively. The probabilities of severe drought for the above sub-divisions varyfrom 1-9% except Ladakh, 2-12% and 1-5% respectively. The probability of severedrought for Leh (Ladakh) in Jammu and Kashmir is 21% and that for Lahaul & Spiti is25%.4

3.2 Spatial variation of probabilities of droughtThe probabilities of moderate drought and severe drought for various districtsare shown in diagrams 1 and 2 respectively. These diagrams show demarcation ofthe probabilities in different class intervals. It is seen in fig.1 that moderate droughtprobabilities more than 21% are noticed in Northwest region of India and some partsof West Central India and Peninsular region. In some parts of the Northwest,Peninsular, West Central India and Hilly region of India, the probabilities of moderatedrought in the range 16 to 20% are mostly noticed. In some parts of Northeast,Central Northeast, West Central and Peninsular India, the probabilities of moderatedrought are in the range of 11 to 15% in major parts. In coastal region near Arabiansea of West Central and Peninsular region, some parts of Central Northeast region,West Central Region and extreme Northeast region, the probabilities of moderatedrought are less than 10%. In most parts of India, the probabilities of moderatedrought are in the range 11 to 20%.It is seen in fig.2 that major parts of India show probability of severe drought inthe range 1 to 5%. In some parts of Northwest region, northern Hilly region andPeninsular region, probability of severe drought is in the range of 6 to 10%. Furtherahead in parts of Northwest region and in small Hilly region, the probability of severedrought is greater than 10%. In extreme Northwest region, especially in the region ofSaurashtra and Kutch, it is greater than 20% also. In Northeast India, some parts ofWest Central India and Central Northeast India, no severe drought is experienced.4. Conclusions1) In the Northwest region of India, the probability of moderate drought variesfrom 12 to 30% and that for severe drought varies from 1 to 20% in most ofthe parts and about 20-30% in the extreme northwestern parts.2) In West Central India, the probability of moderate drought varies from 5 to26% and that for severe drought varies from 1 to 8%.3) In the Peninsular region, the probability of moderate drought varies from 3 to27%, and that for severe drought varies from 1 to 9% in major parts.4) In the Central Northeast region, the probability of moderate drought variesfrom 6 to 37% and that for severe drought varies from 1 to 10%.5) In the Northeast region, the probability of moderate drought varies from 1 to26% and that for severe drought varies from 1 to 3%.5

6) In the hilly region, the probability of moderate drought varies from 9 to 31%and that for severe drought varies from 1 to 12% except in Leh and Lahul &Spiti.In general it can be concluded that in most parts of India, probabilities ofmoderate drought are in the range 11 to 20%. Major parts of India show probabilitiesof severe drought in the range 1 to 5%. In some West Central, Central Northeast andNortheast region of India, no severe drought is experienced.AcknowledgementsWe are thankful to Dr. Shailesh Nayak, Secretary, MoES and AVM Dr. AjitTyagi, DGM for their encouragements and support. Thanks are also due to ShriR.N. Bhave, Shri A.B. Chavan and Shri B.V. Potdar as well as other staff membersfrom RCPs. The authors also acknowledge the contributions of the designing andprinting team headed by Shri Philipose Abraham.6

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Rama Krishna Y..S, Sastri A.S.R.S.A., Rao G.G.S.N., Raman rao B.V., ‘Onprediction of droughts in the Indian Arid region’, Mausam, 1984, 35,3,349-354.Shewale M.P. and Sinha Ray K.C.., 2001, ‘Probability of occurrence of drought invarious sub divisions of India’, Mausam Vol.52 No.3, pp 541-546.Singh S.V., Kripalani, R.H., Saha P., Prasad K.D., 1984, ‘Analysis and Prediction ofshort period droughts during summer monsoon over India’, Mausam, 35, 3,361-366.8

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000North West IndiaProbability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe1(a) Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi1. Ambala 17 022. Delhi 17 133. Gurgaon 18 054. Hissar 18 145. Jind 24 126. Karnal 21 067. Mahendragarh 20 088. Rohtak 18 091(b) East Rajasthan1. Ajmer 17 082. Alwar 20 083. Banswara 21 064. Bharatpur 12 085. Bhilwara 20 056. Bundi 21 087. Chittorgarh 21 048. Dungarpur 25 059. Jaipur 17 0810. Jhalawar 27 0111. Jhunjhunu 14 0812. Kota 21 0413. Sawai Madhopur 23 0514. Sikar 21 0815. Tonk 17 0816. Udaipur 20 0517. Sirohi 28 131(c) West Rajasthan1. Barmer 24 142. Bikaner 21 113. Churu 17 074. Ganganagar 24 085. Jaisalmer 17 176. Jalore 23 147. Jodhpur 22 158. Nagour 22 109. Pali 25 129

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000North West India (contd…)Probability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe1(d) Gujarat Region1. Ahmedabad 18 102. Amreli 25 093. Banaskantha 22 154. Baroda 18 095. Broach 14 106. Dangs 18 027. Kaira 17 118. Mehsana 24 089. Panch-Mahals 24 0710. Sabarkantha 19 1211. Surat 19 0512. Valsad 14 031(e) Saurashtra & Kutch1. Bhaunagar 21 122. Jamnagar 21 233. Junagarh 19 184. Kutch 16 305. Rajkot 25 106. Surendranagar 20 131(f) Punjab1. Amritsar 25 052. Bhatinda 25 133. Ferozepore 16 134. Gurdaspur 14 135. Hoshiarpur 30 016. Jullundar 18 067. Ludhiana 23 048. Patiala 25 049. Rupar 12 0410. Sangrur 26 1710

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000West Central IndiaProbability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe2(a) East Madhya Pradesh1. Balaghat 14 002. Bastar 14 003. Bilaspur 06 004. Durg 11 005. Jabalpur 14 006. Mandla 11 017. Panna 16 048. Raigarh 06 009. Rewa 17 0210. Satna 15 0111. Shahdol 15 0012. Sidhi 22 0313. Surguja 09 012(b) West Madhya Pradesh1. Bhind 16 082. Bhilsa/Vidisha 19 003. Chhatrapur 16 054. Chindwara 18 005. Damoh 15 016. Dhar 23 027. Datia 24 038. Dewas 25 029. Guna 17 0110. Gwalior 13 0611. Hoshangabad 22 0012. Indore 19 0213. Jhabua 20 0314. Mandsaur 15 0315. Morena 18 0516. Narsinghpur 14 0017. Nimar/Khargone 15 0018. Raesen 12 0119. Ratlam 24 0320. Sagar 12 0021. Sehpore 22 0222. Shajapur 20 0223. Seoni 21 0124. Shivpuri 17 0225. Tikamgarh 19 0326. Ujjain 23 0311

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000West Central India (contd…)Probability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe2(c) Konkan & Goa1. Mumbai 12 042. Kolaba 08 013. Ratnagiri 09 004. Sindhudurg 10 005. Thane 15 006. Goa 16 002(d) Madhya Maharashtra1. Ahmednagar 19 032. Dhulia 15 023. Jalgaon 17 014. Kolhapur 05 015. Nashik 11 016. Pune 19 037. Sangamner 16 018. Satara 06 019. Solapur 15 062(e) Marathwada1. Aurangabad 15 042. Beed 22 063. Jalna 14 024. Latur 08 025. Nanded 14 026. Osmanabad 26 047. Parbhani 17 022(f) Vidarbha1. Akola 12 022. Amravati 11 013. Bhandara 13 004. Buldana 17 025. Chandrapur 14 006. Gadchiroli 16 007. Nagpur 13 008. Wardha 20 009. Yeotmal 17 0112

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000West Central India (contd…)Probability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe2(g) Telangana1. Adilabad 10 032. Hyderabad 20 003. Karimnagar 12 024. Khammam 14 005. Mahbubnagar 24 036. Medak 19 037. Nalgonda 21 018. Nizamabad 21 019. Warangal 18 032(h) North Interior Karnataka1. Bidar 28 022. Bijapur 21 013. Belgaum 09 014. Gulbarga 22 065. Raichur 17 0413

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000Peninsular IndiaProbability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe3(a) Coastal Andhra Pradesh1. East Godavari 15 002. Guntur 13 003. Krishna 18 004. Nellore 22 015. Prakasam 13 036. Srikakulam 06 017. Visakhapatnam 14 008. West Godavari 15 013(b) Rayalaseema1. Anantpur 20 042. Chittor 15 003. Cuddapah 24 014. Kurnool 09 043(c) Tamilnadu & Puducherry1. Arcot North 23 012. Arcot South 19 013. Chennai 20 044. Chingleput 20 015. Coimbatore 15 186. Dharmapuri 19 017. Kanyakumari 27 068. Madurai 17 049. Nilgiris 08 0310. Ramanathapur 18 0911. Sambuvarayar 16 0112. Tiruchirapalli 16 0313. Tanjavur 22 0514. Tirunelveli 25 0714

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000Peninsular India (contd…)Probability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe3(d) Coastal Karnataka1. Kanara North 03 012. Kanara South 04 003(e) South Interior Karnataka1. Bangalore 17 022. Bellary 15 033. Chickmanglur 07 034. Chitradurga 21 015. Hassan 18 016. Kolar 18 037. Coorg/Kudagu 07 008. Mandya 27 039. Mysore 20 0310. Shimoga 34 0211. Tumkur 19 023(f) Kerala1. Alleppey 09 002. Cannanore 08 003. Ernakulam 09 004. Idukki 13 015. Kasargode 05 006. Kottayam 11 007. Kozhikode 11 018. Malapuram 06 019. Palghat 12 0110. Pathanamthitta 11 0011. Quillon 13 0012. Trichur 12 0013. Tiruanantpuram 25 0314. Wynad 19 0315

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000Cenral Northeast IndiaProbability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe4(a) Orissa1. Balasore 08 002. Bolangir 19 003. Cuttack 10 004. Dhenkanal 09 005. Ganjam 09 006. Kalahandi 10 037. Keonjhar 21 008. Koraput 07 009. Mayurbhanj 06 0010. Puri 08 0011. Sambalpur 16 0112. Sundergarh 16 004(b) Jharkhand1. Dhanbad 10 002. Hazaribagh 06 003. Palamau 13 004. Ranchi 07 005. Singhbhum 08 006. Santhal Parganas 07 00.4(c) Bihar1. Bhagalpur 12 002. Champaran 15 013. Darbhanga 17 024. Gaya 13 005. Monghyr 15 006. Muzaffarpur 16 007. Patna 17 008. Purnea 12 019. Shahabad 06 0110. Saharsa 12 0011. Saran 19 004(d) East Uttar Pradesh1. Allahabad 10 022. Azamgarh 14 013. Bahraich 13 044. Ballia 17 025. Basti 13 0216

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000Cenral Northeast India (contd..)Probability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe4(d) East Uttar Pradesh (contd…)6. Faizabad 20 047. Fatehpur 14 038. Gazipur 15 029. Gonda 12 0110. Gorakhpur 14 0011. Hardoi 26 0412. Jaunpur 13 0013. Kanpur 16 0514. Kheri Lakhimpur 15 0315. Lucknow 20 0416. Mirzapur 11 0317. Pratapgarh 21 0118. Raebareli 37 0119. Sultanpur 15 0220. Varanasi 22 0121. Unnao 16 004(e) West Uttar Pradesh1. Agra 15 072. Aligarh 15 053. Banda 17 014. Badaun 16 075. Bareilly 29 016. Bijnor 18 017. Bulandshahr 19 078. Etawah 17 059. Hamirpur 15 0410. Jalaun 21 0511. Jhansi 12 0412. Mainpuri 13 0413. Mathura 12 0714. Meerut 13 0615. Moradabad 13 0316. Muzaffarnagar 07 0817. Pilibhit 18 1018. Saharanpur 18 0617

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000Northeast IndiaProbability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe5(a) Assam & Meghalaya1. Cachar 04 002. Darrang 06 013. Goalpara 05 034. Garohills 14 005. Kamrup 06 016. Lakhimpur 03 007. Nowgong 14 008. Sibsagar 01 005(b) Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura1. Nagaland 09 002. Mizoram 14 023. Tripura 07 015(c) Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim1. Cooch Behar 16 012. Darjeeling 06 003. Jalpaiguri 10 004. Malda 15 035. West Dinajpur 15 005(d) Gangetic West Bengal1. Bankura 13 002. Birbhum 09 003. Burdwan 08 004. Hooghly 16 005. Howrah 26 006. Murshidabad 13 007. Nadia 11 038. Parganas 24 13 009. Purulia 09 0018

Probabilities of moderate and severe drought during 1901-2000Hilly Region of IndiaProbability (%) of droughtSr.No. District Moderate Severe6(a) Jammu & Kashmir1. Anantnag 29 092. Baramulla 20 073. Doda 15 044. Jammu 16 025. Kathua 16 046. Ladakh 23 217. Mirpur 15 028. Muzaffarbad 13 009. Poonch 10 016(b) Himachal Pradesh1. Bilaspur 18 022. Chamba 31 073. Kangra 13 034. Kinnaur 23 125. Kullu 11 096. Lahaul & Spiti 12 257. Mahasu 11 008. Mandi 22 049. Shimla 09 0210. Sirmaur 29 076(c) Sub-division: Uttarakhand1. Almora 14 002. Chamoli 12 033. Dehradun 18 014. Garhwal 12 015. Nainital 15 046. Pithorgarh 15 057. Sharjahanpur 25 008. Tehri-Garhwal 27 0519