Model Quality Report in Business Statistics - Harvard ...

Estimator
Total
Industry 1
Region 1
Number
of
simulations
Standard
deviation of
point estimators
(% of true total)
Average
estimated
standard error
(% of true total)
Bias of standard
error estimate
(% of sd of
point
estimators)
SYG expansion 669 171.3 171 -0.15
SYG ratio 663 165.5 166 0.38
SYG regression 510 166.1 166 0.26
JK expansion 317 248.0 253 2.24
JK ratio 421 97.5 575,715 591,259.78
JK regression 299 31.5 21,365 678,263.93
SYG expansion 669 0.12 0.13 4.46
SYG ratio 663 0.11 0.11 -0.70
SYG regression 510 0.11 0.08 -29.70
JK expansion 317 0.12 47.87 40,297.71
JK ratio 421 0.11 38.36 34,778.76
JK regression 299 0.11 40.98 38,222.72
SYG expansion 669 0.42 0.42 0.27
SYG ratio 663 0.43 0.44 1.79
SYG regression 510 0.42 0.42 0.55
JK expansion 317 0.50 69.4 13,774.04
JK ratio 421 0.43 935,520.8 217,992,460.92
JK regression 299 0.53 86.4 16,123.30
Table 3.3 Summary of the variance estimator properties from GES outputs, for Sen-Yates-
Grundy (“Taylor”) variance estimators and (drop one) jackknife variance estimators for three
example domains.
bias of standard error
estimate
40
20
0
-20
-40
expansion
estimator
ratio
estimator
regression
estimator
Figure 3.1 Boxplots of the bias of the SYG standard error estimators (expressed as a
percentage of the standard error of the point estimates). Note that the biases for Industry 29
have been omitted as they swamp the rest of the information.
28