Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform ... - WWF UK

Scenario A1: Central demand scenario with no
additional interconnection
Figure 3: GW of
installed capacity required
for scenario A1
GW OF INSTALLED CAPACITY REQUIRED IN 2030
Scenario A1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
GW
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Solar PV
Biomass and
geothermal
Tidal, wave
and hydro
Pumped storage
Existing
interconnectors
New
interconnectors
Gas
This scenario assumes that the UK is almost entirely self sufficient in electricity supply
in 2030 and hasn’t expanded its interconnection capacity beyond current levels. Total
annual demand has increased to 425TWh/a by 2030, with peak demand at 70GW.
Under this scenario, renewables meet 61% or 261TWh of the UK’s annual electricity
demand. A combination of gas fired plants with and without CCS make up the majority
of the remaining capacity. 56GW of gas generation capacity is needed providing
164TWh/a of electricity. A significant proportion of the conventional generation
capacity included in this scenario is used relatively infrequently to meet demand at
times of low renewable electricity production.
Figure 4: Pathway to
2030, scenario A1 SCENARIO A1: ANNUAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
500
400
300
200
100
0
TWh 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nuclear
Other fossil
Gas (with CCS)
Gas (without CCS)
Renewables
WWF-UK 2011 Positive Energy page 28