Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform ... - WWF UK

The stretch scenarios
In addition to the four scenarios set out above, GL GH modelled two stretch (C) scenarios,
one for each level of demand. In these, interconnection is equal to that assumed in the
high interconnection B scenarios. However, in contrast to B1 and B2, in the stretch
scenarios, it is assumed that there is an export market for surplus electricity generated
at times of high renewable energy production. In the stretch scenarios GL GH therefore
assumes that it is economic to build renewables in excess of domestic demand or up
to maximum UK electricity demand plus total interconnector capacity. This means it’s
feasible to build more renewables than GL GH assumes in the four main scenarios. The
viability of the stretch scenarios rests on the assumption that increased interconnection
with European grids would provide an export market for the UK’s surplus renewable
generation, as well as helping secure the UK electricity system at times of high demand.
Stretch scenario C1: Central demand, high renewables
Figure 11: GW of
installed capacity required
for stretch scenario C1
GW OF INSTALLED CAPACITY REQUIRED IN 2030
Stretch scenario C1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
GW
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Solar PV
Biomass and
geothermal
Tidal, wave
and hydro
Pumped storage
Existing
interconnectors
New
interconnectors
Gas
In this scenario, renewable energy meets 88% of demand. Due to the high proportion of
demand met by renewables, there is no need for CCS technology to be installed on any
remaining gas plant. Annual output from gas generation is 52TWh with 373TWh from
renewables.
Figure 12: Pathway to
2030: stretch scenario C1
STRETCH SCENARIO C1: ANNUAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
500
400
300
200
100
0
TWh 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nuclear
Other fossil
Gas (without CCS)
Renewables
WWF-UK 2011 Positive Energy page 32