Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform ... - WWF UK

Scenario B1: Central demand scenario with high
interconnection
Figure 7: GW of
installed capacity required
for scenario B1
GW OF INSTALLED CAPACITY REQUIRED IN 2030
Scenario B1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
GW
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Solar PV
Biomass and
geothermal
Tidal, wave
and hydro
Pumped storage
Existing
interconnectors
New
interconnectors
Gas
Under this scenario, electricity demand is the same as in scenario A1, at 425TWh/a with
peak demand at 70GW. However, interconnection capacity increases to an ambitious
32GW above current levels. Only 24GW of installed gas generation providing 164TWh/a
of electricity is needed. The UK imports electricity from Europe at times of low
renewable output and exports at times of surplus electricity generation. It is assumed
for modelling purposes that annual exports of electricity are equal to annual imports.
Gas generation runs at a relatively high capacity factor. Most of it must be equipped
with CCS technology to meet the 50gCO2/KWh decarbonisation target for 2030. As in
scenario A1, UK renewable electricity meets 61% of net demand totalling 261TWh.
Figure 8: Pathway to
2030: scenario B1 SCENARIO B1: ANNUAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
500
400
300
200
100
0
TWh 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nuclear
Other fossil
Gas (with CCS)
Gas (without CCS)
Renewables
WWF-UK 2011 Positive Energy page 30