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2010AWARDS & AnnuAL REVIEW - PERE

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Trap for some, honey for others<br />

despite stories of private equity firms running into<br />

trouble with their Macau investments, the gaming<br />

state’s demographics were impossible to ignore<br />

Is Macau a honey trap for international investors? The mess<br />

that is Macau Studio City was the latest in a line of stories<br />

emanating from the former Portuguese colony that would<br />

suggest so.<br />

A three-year dispute over financing between the multiple<br />

owners of the casino development – including Oaktree Capital<br />

Management and Silver Point Capital – could end with it being<br />

handed back to Macau authorities. If so, the two investors<br />

would be hit with a loss of $250 million.<br />

Non-gaming schemes backed by private equity also hit difficulties,<br />

particularly those without secure planning consents<br />

at the time of the conviction of Ao Man-long, Macao’s former<br />

ministry of transport and public works responsible for planning<br />

decisions. After he was jailed for 27 years in January 2008<br />

amid a state-wide corruption and bribery scandal, numerous<br />

schemes were hit with more onerous zoning constraints.<br />

While there are anecdotes aplenty of real estate investors<br />

running aground, it is impossible not to be attracted to Macao’s<br />

honey despite its numerous traps. Macau generated GDP<br />

growth of 8.2 percent and record gaming revenues of $15 billion<br />

in 2009. In comparison, Las Vegas generated $10.4 billion.<br />

Considering that gambling is the Chinese national pastime and<br />

there is just one place – Macau – where it can be done legally, it<br />

is illogical not to allocate something.<br />

More importantly, firms have been able to make full-circle<br />

investments in Macau and handsome profits. Take Manhattan,<br />

the joint venture residential scheme between Citi Property Investors<br />

and local developer-cum-investor Macauland. Within<br />

a couple of years, the partners had sold and their exit reflected<br />

an IRR of more than 30 percent and a 1.8x equity multiple.<br />

Probing China’s bubble<br />

Private equity real estate firms considered their<br />

options as China’s real estate market continued<br />

to heat up<br />

When chairman and managing director of JPMorgan Chase’s<br />

China equities division, Jing Ulrich, painted a picture of China’s<br />

overheating real estate market for the benefit of delegates<br />

at the <strong>PERE</strong> Forum: Asia in February of last year, she could not<br />

have guessed that the temperature would continue rising.<br />

Ulrich, who was featured in Forbes’ 100 most powerful<br />

women table two years ago, told the audience how China’s<br />

GDP growth had reached 10.7 percent in the final quarter of<br />

2008, predominantly on the back of a rising domestic real estate<br />

market.<br />

Ulrich explained how loose government policy and bank<br />

lending had led to record growth in real estate lending of 33<br />

percent year-on-year (compared with a five-year average of between<br />

14 percent and 16 percent), spawning worrying levels of<br />

real estate speculation. But she suggested the government had<br />

taken adequate measures to stem the inflation of an uncontrollable<br />

bubble, ensuring Chinese real estate would receive a soft<br />

landing should the bubble burst.<br />

Forecasting that property sales and acquisitions would fall<br />

by 15 percent in 2010, Ulrich predicted 2010 would yield little<br />

further government intervention, but the opposite happened.<br />

With GDP growth at 11.9 percent year-on-year, according to<br />

China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing introduced extra<br />

taxes on areas including individual’s profits from property<br />

sales. And it appears the government isn’t letting up in 2011,<br />

having already announced property tax trials on some homes<br />

in high-value areas of Shanghai in January.<br />

new GPs wanted<br />

lPs on stage at the Pere Forum: Asia expressed<br />

support for first time funds. that was good news<br />

as there were many new funds in the works<br />

Any delegate at the <strong>PERE</strong> Forum: Asia thinking of setting up<br />

his or her own real estate fund management platform would<br />

have been heartened by what was said on stage during the final<br />

panel conversation. Five LPs, either already invested in Asia<br />

real estate funds or seriously thinking about committing to<br />

Asia real estate funds, unanimously agreed they were keen to<br />

support qualified first-time fund managers.<br />

One LP – Nirav Kachalia, managing director of investments<br />

at US- and Asia-focused investment advisor Morgan Creek –<br />

was so keen to stress his support for newcomers he told delegates<br />

his firm had backed 70 first-time funds. Furthermore,<br />

60 percent of the managers backed by his organisation were<br />

through funds one, two or three.<br />

Doug Coulter, vice president and head of private equity for<br />

Asia Pacific at private equity fund of funds business LGT Partners,<br />

went one further when he said the firm’s best performances<br />

on balance had come from backing first-time funds. He told<br />

delegates the firm, which had only made minor investments in<br />

real estate vehicles in Europe before now, was seriously considering<br />

a more extensive Asia investment programme.<br />

The other three participants – including the panel chair, another<br />

LP – made similarly encouraging remarks. This was good<br />

news for anyone thinking of spinning out to start a new firm.<br />

In the three months prior to the conference, <strong>PERE</strong> broke multiple<br />

news stories of individuals flying their own fund management<br />

flags for the first time.<br />

One often hears that many investors avoid “first-time funds”.<br />

However, in a less mature market like Asia, there simply aren’t<br />

that many Fund IIIs out there. In addition, in today’s turbulent<br />

real estate market, investors are keen to back talented groups<br />

that are not saddled with disastrous portfolios and who will<br />

pursue fresh strategies informed by the painful mistakes of the<br />

last cycle. Indeed, it’s time to back the next generation.<br />

2010 AwArds & AnnuAl review | <strong>PERE</strong> 55

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