German Humanitarian Aid Abroad - Channel Research

Human induced climate change is likely to increase average temperatures in Uganda by up
to 1.5 o C in the next 20 years and by up to 4.3 o C by the 2080s. Such rates of increase are
unprecedented. The climate of Uganda may become wetter on average and the increase in
rainfall may be unevenly distributed and occur as more extreme or more frequent periods of
intense rainfall. Regardless of changes in rainfall, changes in temperature are likely to have
significant implications for water resources, food security, natural resource management,
human health, settlements, and infrastructure.
2.2.4 Refugees from neighbouring countries
In addition to the IDP crisis, Uganda has been hosting refugees and asylum-seekers from
neighbouring countries for a long time. According to UNHCR statistics, a total of 127,350
refugees and 11,610 asylum-seekers were reported in 2009 as compared to 257,256
refugees and 1,809 asylum-seekers in 2005. Most refugees come from DRC (73,200
persons), Sudan (20,800 persons), Rwanda (15,700 persons) and Somalia (8,200 persons),
most asylum-seekers stem from Somalia (3,500 persons) and DRC (3,000 persons).
Depending on their country of origin these refugees are located in different part of the
country (mainly north and South-west).
All newly arriving and relocated refuges are registered. Most of the refugees and asylumseekers
enjoy civil and social rights, and some have access to labour markets, Refugees are
allocated plots of land for shelter and agriculture and receive non-food items.
No cases of illegal deportation were reported in 2009. 34 However, recent news 35 indicate that
Rwandans from Uganda were forcibly returned when Ugandan police mounted an operation
to round up and deport some 1,700 people from the Nakivale and Kyaka refugee settlements
in South-west Uganda.
2.2.5 Short term humanitarian prospects
Harvest 2010 and availability of food: Unusually good rains during the first half of 2010 in
most of Northern Uganda (including Karamoja) will almost certainly lead to a bumper harvest
for those who obtained seeds from humanitarian seed distributions, carried out through
NGO, UN and GoU programmes. This comes as great relief after two and up to eight years
of harvest failure (depending on how ‘harvest failure’ was defined by discussion partners and
also depending on the region). Unfortunately, many farmers in drier parts of Karamoja did not
dare to sow the seeds they had obtained but waited too long. Their harvest, if any, will be
small. This indecisiveness of farmers is an indirect effect of climate change with ever less
reliable rainfall patterns, both spatial and temporal, that can be observed across Africa.
The June 2010 food security outlook of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS
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NET) confirms the good or above-average rainfalls and sinking prices of main staple foods
such as maize, sorghum and millet in some cities of Uganda. FEWS predicts that food aid
can largely be phased out – even in Karamoja – by September 2010, even though in June
2010 an estimated 517,000 people still required food assistance.
34 UNHCR (2009), p. 92 and UNHCR 2005, p. 528
35 http://www.unhcr.org/4c406edb6.html (accessed July 2010)
36 FEWS NET (2010)
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