Mapping climate change - barriers and opportunities for action

2. Summary and conclusions
The significance of climate change up to 2050
The Danish climate will change gradually in the future. In the years up to 2050, and in particular in
the longer term, the climate will present a number of challenges. As a common starting point for
climate change adaptation efforts in Denmark, since 2010 the recommended climate scenario has
been the A1B scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Detailed data
from the Danish Meteorological Institute are available for this scenario via the Danish Portal for
Climate Change Adaptation (www.klimatilpasning.dk). The annual average temperature in
Denmark is expected to increase by about 1.2 o C up to 2050. Annual average precipitation is
expected to increase by about 7% up to 2050, with the highest increase during winter. Denmark will
be located on the border between two zones: with more summer precipitation in northern
Scandinavia and less in central and southern Europe. Danish waters will become warmer, less salty
and with higher sea levels. Weather extremes will generally be more likely and this will mean more
intense and more frequent heatwaves, storms and rainfall, as well as longer periods of drought. For
example, new calculations indicate that, in 2050, a 50-year storm in Denmark will be 10% more
intense.
The more precise magnitude of climate change 50-100 years from now depends on future
greenhouse gas emissions for example, and projections are associated with great uncertainty, as is
the magnitude of the impacts of climate change for Denmark. Climate simulations, and our
understanding of the uncertainties linked to them, are improving all the time. Moreover, local and
regional effects of climate change may differ. Decision-making on climate change adaptation
initiatives will therefore be subject to some uncertainty and this constitutes a challenge in itself for
municipalities, enterprises and individuals when prioritising efforts, including the scope of these.
Consequently, adaptation initiatives risk being either over- or under-dimensioned relative to what is
economically ideal. It is therefore important that climate change adaptation initiatives allow for later
adjustments and that the knowledge base is updated on a regular basis.
A review of the significance of climate change up to 2050 for the individual sectors and industries
shows that Danish society may experience both positive and negative impacts.
The positive impacts will relate primarily to the higher temperatures which will result e.g. in a
longer growing season and increased productivity for forestry and agriculture. Milder winters will
moreover reduce energy consumption and construction costs, as well as the costs of winter weather
preparedness and road salt.
The negative impacts of climate change will relate primarily to more frequent extreme rainfall,
elevated sea levels and more powerful storms which can lead to flooding and damage to
infrastructure and buildings as well as erosion along coasts.
Division of responsibilities
The municipalities and citizens will, for the most part, be responsible for addressing and adapting to
climate change. Owners of buildings will have to decide whether they want to adapt homes and
other buildings. The municipalities, which are responsible for a large number of areas such as
wastewater treatment and a large part of the road infrastructure, decide themselves how they want to
tackle the challenge from more intense precipitation, for example. The state plays a role in terms of
adapting state-owned buildings, land and state-owned infrastructure to climate change.
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