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indo–us workshop on “intraplate seismicity” - The CERI Blog

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West<strong>on</strong> Observatory, Department of Earth and Envir<strong>on</strong>mental Sciences, Bost<strong>on</strong> College,<br />

Devlin Hall 213,140 comm<strong>on</strong>wealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts 02467,USA.<br />

It has been suggested that in intraplate regi<strong>on</strong>s aftershocks of str<strong>on</strong>g earthquakes can be<br />

observed for many hundreds of years or even l<strong>on</strong>ger. This may be because regi<strong>on</strong>al stresses<br />

build up very slowly within the tect<strong>on</strong>ic plates, and thus relatively little of the intraplate<br />

seismicity reflects regi<strong>on</strong>al stress accumulati<strong>on</strong>. Thus, for intraplate regi<strong>on</strong>s spatial clusters<br />

of locally enhanced small earthquake activity may indicate locati<strong>on</strong>s where past str<strong>on</strong>g<br />

earthquakes have taken place. In eastern North America (ENA), there are many localized<br />

clusters of small earthquakes that may indicate where str<strong>on</strong>g earthquakes have occurred,<br />

most notably in the New Madrid and Charlevoix seismic z<strong>on</strong>es. A number of M≥4<br />

earthquakes have taken place near the edges of many of ENA clusters, and these moderate<br />

earthquakes may reflect the ends of faults that ruptured in the str<strong>on</strong>g earthquakes that give<br />

rise to the aftershock clusters. Thus, localized clusters of locally enhanced earthquake<br />

activity in intraplate regi<strong>on</strong>s may give clues about where to look for seismically active<br />

structures. In ENA there are a number of such localized clusters that may reflect the<br />

locati<strong>on</strong>s of str<strong>on</strong>g earthquakes (M 7 or greater) that have taken place during the past 1000-­‐<br />

2000 years. An example of such a localized cluster is in central New Hampshire, where an<br />

earthquake of about M 6.5 is suspected to have taken place in 1638. A few scattered<br />

historical reports from Massachusetts and Quebec document this earthquake, but its<br />

locati<strong>on</strong> and size are impossible to determine from the historical accounts al<strong>on</strong>e.<br />

S3.4<br />

On Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Modeling for Finding Anomalous Behaviour<br />

of Seismicity<br />

A. R. Bansal and V. P. Dimri (Email:dimrivp@yahoo.com)<br />

Nati<strong>on</strong>al Geophysical Research Institute (CSIR), Uppal Road, Hyderabad – 500 007, India<br />

<strong>The</strong> epidemic type aftershock sequence Model (ETAS) model is based <strong>on</strong> point process<br />

representati<strong>on</strong> of the seismicity. In the ETAS model background rate and aftershocks are<br />

assumed to follow stati<strong>on</strong>ary and n<strong>on</strong>-­‐stati<strong>on</strong>ary Poiss<strong>on</strong> process, respectively. <strong>The</strong><br />

aftershocks are governed by modified Omori laws and each aftershock can trigger their own

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