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Proceedings <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Pakistan</strong> <strong>Academy</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Sciences</strong> 49 (4): 241–249 (2012) <strong>Pakistan</strong> <strong>Academy</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Sciences</strong> Copyright © <strong>Pakistan</strong> <strong>Academy</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Sciences</strong> ISSN: 0377 - 2969 print / 2306 - 1448 online Research Article Agroclimatic Modelling for Estimation <strong>of</strong> Wheat Production in the Punjab Province, <strong>Pakistan</strong> M. Jawed Iqbal 1,2* , Zaeem Uddin Ali 1 and S. Shahid Ali 3 1 Institute <strong>of</strong> Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University <strong>of</strong> Karachi, Karachi, <strong>Pakistan</strong> 2 Department <strong>of</strong> Mathematics, University <strong>of</strong> Karachi, Karachi, <strong>Pakistan</strong> 3 Department <strong>of</strong> Geography, University <strong>of</strong> Karachi, Karachi, <strong>Pakistan</strong> Abstract: <strong>Pakistan</strong>’s economy hinges on agriculture and the most important agricultural commodity <strong>of</strong> the country is wheat. The province <strong>of</strong> Punjab has the predominant share in wheat production <strong>of</strong> the country. As agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to the climate change phenomena, the current global climatic article reports on an attempted agroclimatic model for the estimation <strong>of</strong> wheat production in Punjab using meteorological parameters. Keywords: Agroclimatic model, prediction <strong>of</strong> wheat yield, agrometeorological variables 1. INTRODUCTION Agriculture is the linchpin <strong>of</strong> our national economy. According to economic survey <strong>of</strong> <strong>Pakistan</strong> 2011– 2012 it has a share <strong>of</strong> 21% in the national GDP and employs 45% <strong>of</strong> the national labour force. The agricultural production system <strong>of</strong> <strong>Pakistan</strong> is based on irrigation. In <strong>Pakistan</strong> 84% <strong>of</strong> the total cultivated area (22.05 million ha) is under irrigation and the remaining is entirely rainfed or barani [1]. More than 90% <strong>of</strong> the available fresh-water resources in the country are utilized for irrigated agriculture [2]. Punjab is <strong>Pakistan</strong>’s second largest province with 205,344 km 2 (79,284 mi 2 ), after Balochistan, and is located at the northwestern edge <strong>of</strong> the geologic Indian plate in South Asia. The Fig. 1 depicts the distribution <strong>of</strong> average yield <strong>of</strong> wheat in various districts across the country. According to McCarty’s measure, 28 out <strong>of</strong> 35 districts <strong>of</strong> Punjab have higher yield than the country’s average yield, i.e., 2.05 ton per hectare. The northern districts <strong>of</strong> the Punjab have lower productivity per unit land area, primarily due to the topographical features and more relative humidity [3]. Several studies have highlighted agro-ecological zones for the growth ———————————————— Received, April 2012; Accepted, November 2012 *Corresponding author, M. Jawed Iqbal; Email: javiqbal@uok.edu.pk and development <strong>of</strong> crops across the country [3, 4]. The cultivate areas <strong>of</strong> the entire country are divided into 10 agro-ecological zones (Fig. 2). Out <strong>of</strong> which four agro-ecological zones, i.e., irrigated plains, Barani (rain fed) region, Thal region and Marginal Lands occur in the Punjab province. The agricultural sector <strong>of</strong> <strong>Pakistan</strong> is confronted with many problems. The provision <strong>of</strong> livelihood and food security for the fast growing population, without affecting the fragile ecosystem, are the main challenges to the agriculture sector. Being open to vagaries <strong>of</strong> nature, agriculture sector is highly susceptible to climate change phenomena. The scholars opine that human activities have reached a level where these are adversely affecting global environment. Anthropogenic perturbations are causing the global climate change at a much faster rate compared to natural pace. The current on sustainable agriculture production and food security as described by Adams et al. [5]. Increasing change in ambient temperature and rainfall and the resultant increased frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong>
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