energy strategy 2050 - Energy Europe

A flexible strategy
An unpredictable future
demands flexible answers
On the one hand, it is possible to mark out the contours
of an energy system in 2050 without fossil fuels and to
identify a number of the key elements. However, on the
other hand it is impossible to predict economic growth,
technological development or fuel and CO 2 prices 40
years ahead, and in so doing detail the optimal energy
system for 2050.
Development and costs of technologies and fuels will
depend to a large extent on the level of ambition for
climate and energy policy set by the rest of the world. At
the same time these aspects are crucial for determining
how best to achieve a cost effective energy system without
fossil fuels. For example, investors’ choice between
electricity production technologies will be based on the
relative costs of the various fuels, technologies, financing
etc. In the long term, cost effective transition will
therefore involve securing more or less uniform support
across technologies in which account is also taken for
the effects of the technologies in relation to, for example,
relevant political objectives, environmental impacts and
security of supply.
A robust and cost effective strategy
The government will organise the transition so that it is
robust and cost effective. On the basis of the knowledge
available today, it is expected that the goal of fossil fuel
independence will be realised most cost effectively by
making energy consumption more efficient; with more
electrification of energy consumption in combination
with greater electricity exchange and a more intelligent
energy system; with more district heating and individual
RE-based heating; with expansion of wind power and
other renewables; and finally with effective utilisation of
biomass resources for CHP and parts of the transport
sector.
On the other hand, electric cars, solar energy, wave
power, CCS and so on are currently relatively expensive
technologies, which require continued subsidies. However,
this can change over time. Therefore, the strategy
should be flexible, i.e. open for all technological possibilities.
For example, the government will not yet exclude
some utilisation of coal with CCS, if this proves to be
a more cost effective and environmentally appropriate
solution in a green transition. If it turns out to be technically
and economically untenable to convert the entire
transport sector to non-fossil alternatives, it will also be
necessary to manage the security of supply issue and
climate impacts in some other way.
CCS
Coal power combined with CCS (Carbon Capture and
Storage), could also be a relevant technology in the longer
term, possibly in combination with biomass, whereby
CO 2 is “withdrawn” from the system. There are relatively
large coal resources globally and Denmark has geological
formations well suited to depositing CO 2 . The CCS
technology is not yet commercially viable and involves
high costs and energy consumption. However, there is
no reason to exclude this technology from being part of
the Danish energy system at a later date.
Hydrogen
Biomass could be a limited resource in the future. A
replacement could be other fuels such as hydrogen in
the transport sector rather than biofuels, or hydrogen
for electricity and heating instead of biomass. Hydrogen
cannot be found in nature and therefore it has to be
manufactured, for example using electricity from wind
turbines for electrolysis. There is great potential, but at
present prospects are inhibited financially because of
losses in manufacture, storage and conversion of the
hydrogen.
Box 2.3 Examples of technologies which could play a role in
a 2050 perspective
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Energy Strategy 2050 – from coal, oil and gas to green energy.