Descriptive and Predictive models of dengue epidemiology: an ...

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Modeling dengue fever epidemiology uuu The two-strain model with strain structure of the pathogens Ṡ = − β(t) N S(I 1 + ρ · N + φI 21 ) − β(t) N S(I 2 + ρ · N + φI 12 ) + µ(N − S) I˙ 1 = β(t) N S(I 1 + ρ · N + φI 21 ) − (γ + µ)I 1 I˙ 2 = β(t) N S(I 2 + ρ · N + φI 12 ) − (γ + µ)I 2 ˙ R 1 = γI 1 − (α + µ)R 1 ˙ R 2 = γI 2 − (α + µ)R 2 S˙ 1 = − β(t) N S 1(I 2 + ρ · N + φI 12 ) + αR 1 − µS 1 S˙ 2 = − β(t) N S 2(I 1 + ρ · N + φI 21 ) + αR 2 − µS 2 I 12 ˙ = β(t) N S 1(I 2 + ρ · N + φI 12 ) − (γ + µ)I 12 I 21 ˙ = β(t) N S 2(I 1 + ρ · N + φI 21 ) − (γ + µ)I 21 Ṙ = γ(I 12 + I 21 ) − µR
Modeling dengue fever epidemiology uuu The two-strain model with strain structure of the pathogens (α=1/one week) (α=1/6 months) New chaotic window for φ < 1! More realistic due to hospitalization of the severe cases.
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uuu Descriptive and Predictive mode
Page 3 and 4: Madeira: uuu Autochthonous Dengue C
Page 11 and 12: Dengue uuu fever epidemiology Deng
Page 13 and 14: Dengue uuu fever epidemiology Infe
Page 15 and 16: Dengue fever epidemiology uuu ADE i
Page 25 and 26: Dengue fever epidemiology uuu It i
Page 27 and 28: Dengue uuu fever notification data
Page 29 and 30: Dengue uuu fever notification data
Page 31 and 32: Modeling uuu dengue fever epidemiol
Page 53: Modeling uuu dengue fever epidemiol
Page 65 and 66: uuu Summary Long term epidemiologi
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Descriptive and Predictive models of dengue epidemiology: an ...

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