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... WHILE THE REAL RISK SEEMS TO BE INFLATION INFLATION ON THE RISE (CPI index, avg) HIGH WEIGHT OF FOOD AND ENERGY IN THE CPI BASKET (% of total consumption) 15 10 Broader Europe 50 40 30 5 0 SEE&Baltics Central Europe 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f 2010f 20 10 0 CE SEE&B Broader Europe Food Energy A global challenge, which leaves policy makers very limited instruments CEE more affected due to the high weight of food and oil in the consumption basket Negative impact on consumption and on international competitiveness 13 Note: CE includes Hungary, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Poland, Slovenia; SEE&B includes Croatia, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia; Broader Europe includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Turkey Source: UniCredit Group CEE Research Network
BUT CEE REGION CAN RELY ON SOLID GROWTH DRIVERS SUCH AS REAL INCOME CONVERGENCE FAVORING REALIGNMENT IN LIVING STANDARDS CONVERGENCE IN REAL INCOMES (GDP per capita in PPS, EU27=100) (1) 46,2 49,6 53,9 2000 2004 2007 REALIGNMENT IN CONSUMPTION PATTERNS (Consumption of middle class, % over total expenditure) (2) (3) 60 50 40 30 Western Europe Latvia CEE Slovakia Croatia Estonia Lithuania Poland Romania Bulgaria 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Primary goods BALANCED HOUSEHOLDS SAVING POSITION (Household net fin and real wealth % of GDP, 2000=100) (1) 120 100 80 Net financial wealth Net financial and real wealth 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 14 Note: (1) CEE including new EU members states + Croatia and Turkey; financial and real wealth excl. the Baltics. (2) Data as of 2005. (3) Primary goods: food and non-alcoholic beverages; clothing and footwear; utilities; health. Secondary goods: alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics; transport; purchase of vehicles; operation of personal transport equipment; transport services; communications; recreation and culture; restaurants and hotels; miscellaneous goods and services; education; furnishings, household equipment and routine house maintenance - Source: UniCredit Group CEE Economic Research, Eurostat
Page 1 and 2: Dies ist eine Financing Growth in E
Page 3 and 4: A GLOBAL HIGHLY FRAGILE RISK ENVIRO
Page 5 and 6: ... EVEN IF POSITIVE SIGNALS COME F
Page 7 and 8: LOOKING AT BANKING, THE EUROPEAN LA
Page 9 and 10: THE NEW LANDSCAPE IS FAVOURING LARG
Page 11 and 12: CEE WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT RECI
Page 13: DESPITE AN ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY ON C
Page 17 and 18: ... AND CAN RELY ON A CONTINUOUS LE
Page 19 and 20: ... WITH SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES
Page 21 and 22: AGENDA The new scenario: increased
Page 23 and 24: ... AS THE GROUP CAN ENJOY AN UNRIV
Page 25 and 26: ... THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF GLOB
Page 27: MANAGING GROWTH IN A NEW LANDSCAPE

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