Enhancing China's Competitiveness Through Lifelong Learning ...

Challenges to China’s Education and Training System and the New Global Context 11
Table 1.3. Projections of China’s school-age populations, 2000–2050
Total population (billions) Senior secondary (millions) Tertiary (millions)
2000 1.27 60.81 98.37
2001 1.28 63.90 99.53
2002 1.29 69.84 100.85
2003 1.29 73.95 102.82
2004 1.30 75.87 106.82
2005 1.31 75.77 109.95
2006 1.32 71.43 114.40
2007 1.33 65.29 119.17
2008 1.34 58.15 124.88
2009 1.35 56.75 121.92
2010 1.36 56.19 114.63
2020 1.43 49.15 82.08
2030 1.47 52.29 88.12
2040 1.48 41.45 74.43
2050 1.46 43.16 69.38
Source: MOE 2003.
In 1990–2002 the average growth of China’s total population was 1 percent a
year, while that of total formal school enrollment was 2 percent, tertiary education
13.1 percent, and secondary education 5 percent. Adult education enrollment has
been growing at 5.2 percent, with adult tertiary education at 10.6 percent and adult
technical training at 16.3 percent (Hu 2004). With the rapid expansion of tertiary
education, the total number of students at the tertiary level (including nonformal)
reached 23.8 million by 2004, more than that of the United States and about 22 percent
of the world’s total. 18
The projections for the future demand for education in China are even more
dramatic. According to the simulation modeling results of the Working Group on
China Education and Human Resource Report in 2003, led by the Ministry of Education,
China’s population will peak at about 1.5 billion in 2040. School-age populations
at senior secondary (15–17) levels will peak around 2004 (at 75.9 million),
and at tertiary levels (18–22) around 2008 (at 124.9 million) (table 1.3 and figure 1.2).
China’s school-age populations at the primary and junior secondary levels peaked
in 2004 at 124.3 million and 65.5 million, respectively (L. Zhang 2004).
Fulfilling the needs of such a huge and rapidly growing education and training
market would be a daunting challenge for any country, but even more for China,
still a lower-middle-income country.
As China looks ahead it needs to take into account its changing demographic
structure (see annex 1). First, because of the one child policy, the 1–4 and 5–9 age
cohorts are already smaller than the succeeding older cohorts, implying overcapacity
in elementary education. Second, a bubble in the 15–21 age cohort, combined
with increasing enrollment in secondary and higher education, means that these
levels will have to be expanded. In the not-too-distant future, there will also be
excess capacity at the secondary level. Third, at the tertiary level there is a need to
18. China Statistic Yearbook (2004) and author’s calculations.