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Impacts of climate change are diverse and serious, and unless <strong>the</strong><br />

emissions of GHGs are effectively mitigated <strong>the</strong>se would threaten to<br />

become far more serious over time. There is now, <strong>the</strong>refore, a renewed<br />

interest in renewable sources of <strong>energy</strong>, because by creating and using<br />

low carbon substitutes to fossil fuels, we may be able to reduce emissions<br />

of GHGs significantly while at <strong>the</strong> same time ensuring economic growth<br />

and development and <strong>the</strong> enhancement of human welfare across <strong>the</strong><br />

world. As it happens, <strong>the</strong>re are major disparities in <strong>the</strong> levels of<br />

consumption of <strong>energy</strong> across <strong>the</strong> world, with some countries using large<br />

quantities per capita and o<strong>the</strong>rs being deprived of any sources of modern<br />

<strong>energy</strong> forms. Solutions in <strong>the</strong> future would, <strong>the</strong>refore, also have to come<br />

to grips with <strong>the</strong> reality of lack of access to modern forms of <strong>energy</strong> for<br />

hundreds of millions of people. For instance, <strong>the</strong>re are 1.6 billion people<br />

in <strong>the</strong> world who have no access to electricity. Households, in which <strong>the</strong>se<br />

people reside, <strong>the</strong>refore, lack a single electric bulb for lighting purposes,<br />

and whatever substitutes <strong>the</strong>y use provide inadequate lighting and<br />

environmental pollution, since <strong>the</strong>se include inefficient lighting devices<br />

using various types of oil or <strong>the</strong> burning of candles.<br />

Future policies can be guided by <strong>the</strong> consideration of different<br />

<strong>scenario</strong>s that can be linked to specific developments. This publication<br />

advocates <strong>the</strong> need for something in <strong>the</strong> nature of an <strong>energy</strong><br />

<strong>revolution</strong>. This is a view that is now shared by several people across<br />

<strong>the</strong> world, and it is also expected that <strong>energy</strong> plans would be based on<br />

a clear assessment of specific <strong>scenario</strong>s related to clearly identified<br />

policy initiatives and technological developments. This edition of<br />

Energy [R]evolution <strong>scenario</strong>s provides a detailed analysis of <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>energy</strong> efficiency potential and choices in <strong>the</strong> transport sector. The<br />

material presented in this publication provides a useful basis for<br />

considering specific policies and developments that would be of value<br />

not only to <strong>the</strong> world but for different countries as <strong>the</strong>y attempt to<br />

meet <strong>the</strong> global challenge confronting <strong>the</strong>m. The work carried out in<br />

<strong>the</strong> following pages is comprehensive and rigorous, and even those<br />

who may not agree with <strong>the</strong> analysis presented would, perhaps, benefit<br />

from a deep study of <strong>the</strong> underlying assumptions that are linked with<br />

specific <strong>energy</strong> <strong>scenario</strong>s for <strong>the</strong> future.<br />

Dr. R. K. Pachauri<br />

DIRECTOR-GENERAL, THE ENERGY AND RESOURCES<br />

INSTITUTE (TERI) AND CHAIRMAN, INTERGOVERNMENTAL<br />

PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)<br />

OCTOBER 2008<br />

© GREENPEACE/FLAVIO CANNALONGA<br />

7<br />

8<br />

policy<br />

recommendations 39<br />

glossary & appendix 45<br />

Greenpeace International, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC)<br />

date August 2009. EREC Christine Lins, Arthouros Zervos. Greenpeace Mediterranean Hilal Atici.<br />

Greenpeace International Sven Teske, Project Manager. authors Sven Teske, Hilal Atici. editor Crispin Aubrey.<br />

research DLR, Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment,<br />

Stuttgart, Germany: Dr. Wolfram Krewitt, Dr. Sonja Simon, Dr. Thomas Pregger. Ecofys BV, Utrecht, The Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands:<br />

Wina Graus, Eliane Blomen. design & layout Jens Christiansen, Tania Dunster, www.onehemisphere.se<br />

contact EREC Christine Lins: lins@erec.org Greenpeace Mediterranean: Hilal Atici, hilal.atici@.greenpeace.org<br />

Greenpeace International: Sven Teske; sven.teske@greenpeace.org for fur<strong>the</strong>r information about <strong>the</strong> global, regional<br />

and national <strong>scenario</strong>s please visit <strong>the</strong> <strong>energy</strong> [r]evolution website: www.<strong>energy</strong>blueprint.info/ Published by Greenpeace<br />

International. Printed on 100% post consumer recycled chlorine-free paper.<br />

3

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