download the turkey energy revolution scenario

GLOBAL ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE TURKEY ENERGY OUTLOOK
6
key results | ELECTRICITY DEMAND
electricity generation
The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by
a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing
share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing
out coal and lignite power plants and reduce the number of gasfired
power plants after 2030 required for grid stabilisation. By
2050, 84% of the electricity produced in Turkey will come from
renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar
thermal power plants (CSP), modern biomass and PV – will
contribute 71% of electricity generation. The following strategy
paves the way for a future renewable energy supply:
• The phasing out of coal power plants and rising electricity
demand will be met initially by bringing into operation new highly
efficient gas-fired combined-cycle power plants, plus an
increasing capacity of wind turbines, concentrated solar power
plants photovoltaics and biomass. In the long term, wind and
solar photovoltaics will be the most important sources of
electricity generation.
• Solar energy, hydro and biomass will make substantial
contributions to electricity generation. In particular, as nonfluctuating
renewable energy sources, hydro and solar thermal,
combined with efficient heat storage, are important elements in
the overall generation mix.
• The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow
from 14 GW in 2005 to 146 GW in 2050. Increasing renewable
capacity by a factor of ten within the next 40 years requires
political support and well-designed policy instruments, however.
There will be a considerable demand for investment in new
production capacity over the next 20 years. As investment cycles
in the power sector are long, decisions on restructuring the
world’s energy supply system need to be taken now.
To achieve an economically attractive growth in renewable energy
sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies is of
great importance. This mobilisation depends on technical potentials,
cost reduction and technological maturity. Figure 6.7 shows the
comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies over
time. Up to 2020, hydro-power and modern biomass power plants will
remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After
2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by
electricity from geothermal energy, photovoltaic and solar thermal
(CSP) energy. None of these numbers describe a maximum feasibility,
but a possible balanced approach. With the right policy development,
the solar industry believes that a much further uptake could happen.
This is particularly true for concentrated solar power (CSP) which
could unfold to 6GW already by 2020 and more than 14GW in 2050.
We are also aware that in the new `energy strategy paper` of the
government, wind energy capacity is aimed to reach 20GW by 2020.
We welcome the decision if the government is committed to update
massively the conditions of the grids in Turkey in the coming ten
years. The energy [r]evolution scenario forsees a lower wind capacity
by 2020, as a very ambitious energy efficiency startegy is included in
this concept as well. A combination of new renewable power
genereation and efficiency represents the most cost effective pathway
for a future sustainable power supply for Turkey.
figure 6.6: turkey: development of electricity generation
structure under the two scenarios
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
figure 6.7: turkey: growth of renewable electricity
generation capacity under the energy [r]evolution scenario
BY INDIVIDUAL SOURCE
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
TWh/a 0
REF E[R]
2005
REF E[R]
2010
REF E[R]
2020
REF E[R]
2030
REF E[R]
2040
REF E[R]
2050
GWel 0
E[R]
2005
E[R]
2010
E[R]
2020
E[R]
2030
E[R]
2040
E[R]
2050
36
‘EFFICIENCY’
RES IMPORT
OCEAN ENERGY
SOLAR THERMAL
• PV
GEOTHERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
BIOMASS
GAS & OIL
• COAL
NUCLEAR