Technology Push vs. Market Pull - CiPoC
Technology Push vs. Market Pull - CiPoC
Technology Push vs. Market Pull - CiPoC
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
<strong>Technology</strong> <strong>Push</strong> <strong>vs</strong>. <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Pull</strong><br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
Major Points for the Day<br />
• It’s not just the science and/or technology, much of which is<br />
already available anyway for exploitation and doesn’t need<br />
reinvention…(Providers)<br />
• There are lots of opportunities and unsolved problems with<br />
commercial potential! (Customers)<br />
• There are investors and sponsors that recognize these<br />
opportunities and are willing to share risk given an attractive value<br />
proposition (Payers, at least initially)<br />
Our goal for the day<br />
• Initiate an interdisciplinary network with the long-term goal of<br />
facilitating development and commercialization of “PoC/A”<br />
technologies…..<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
It’s not just the science…<br />
A recent post on the <strong>Technology</strong> Transfer Tactics website cited a survey of tech<br />
transfer professionals. There was only one survey question: "What are the top<br />
three reasons for failure of university startup companies" There were the<br />
typical reasons you might expect like “management failure” and “lack of capital”;<br />
and there were some reasons related to culture and policy in the international<br />
entrepreneurial stage. But there was one that was either tied directly or indirectly to<br />
several of the others, and that was "Innovation does not meet a commercial<br />
need…."<br />
(http://www.technologytransfertactics.com/content/2010/07/14/survey-suggests-top-<br />
10-reasons-university-start-ups-fail/ )<br />
This makes a lot of sense to me. I would rather have a well-defined<br />
customer base with a recognized need than some high-tech solution<br />
looking for a problem. As an engineer, coming up with a solution is<br />
easier than finding the problem, figuring who is willing to pay to<br />
solve it and how much that solution is worth.<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
It’s not just the science…<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
It’s not just the science…<br />
Long <strong>Technology</strong> <strong>Push</strong>… Super Strong <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Pull</strong><br />
• Diabetes patients > 300 M in<br />
2030<br />
→20 B $ 2015<br />
• Clear and unequivocal clinical<br />
benefit<br />
• Clear and unequivocal<br />
economic benefit<br />
• Price – Performance<br />
Improvements (cost)<br />
≈ 11-12 B $ 2012<br />
Home use early 1980’s<br />
• <strong>Market</strong> expansion<br />
Hospital/office use early 1970’s<br />
Clark, L., Jr.; Lyons, C. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. 1962, 102, 29.<br />
www.k9diabetes.com<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
It’s not just the science…<br />
Unsuccessful <strong>Technology</strong> (Reinvention) <strong>Push</strong>….<br />
Pelikan Technologies, Inc. – An HP Diagnostics (Agilent) Spinout from 2001…<br />
…liquidated as of 28-09-2011<br />
VS.<br />
• Hi-tech Pelikan Sun electronic lancet<br />
• $100 M Development Cost<br />
• $200 for instrument (not original price!)<br />
• $15 for 100 lancets (2 wheels) –<br />
15 cents per piece<br />
• Low-tech standard blood lancet<br />
• Development Cost<br />
• 100 lancets for $4.10 (4.1 cents<br />
per piece on Amazon.com!)<br />
“…(The) Children with Diabetes web site has a number of user reviews on<br />
this product. Most said it was not worth it, that the lancets are on a wheel<br />
and cannot be used twice, that the tester is large and not as easy to use as<br />
most blood testing devices. The positive comment is that it is virtually pain<br />
free. I test 6-8 times per day and have never developed calluses, infections<br />
or bruises on my fingers, so some of the marketing claims for the Pelikan are<br />
really BOGUS”….<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
It may just be the science (for now)….…<br />
Hand held<br />
ACA<br />
NGS on a<br />
chip<br />
The $10 million top prize will be awarded to the team that<br />
develops a mobile platform that most accurately<br />
diagnoses Siri, M.D. a set of 15 diseases across 30 consumers<br />
in three days. Teams must also deliver this information in<br />
a way that provides a compelling consumer experience<br />
while capturing real time, critical health metrics such as<br />
blood pressure, respiratory rate and temperature. The<br />
winning solutions will enable consumers in any location to<br />
quickly and effectively assess health conditions, determine<br />
if they need professional help and answer the question,<br />
“What do I do next” (when it comes to their health).<br />
http://www.qualcommtricorderxprize.org<br />
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16518171<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
It’s not just the science…<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
There are lots of opportunities and unsolved problems…<br />
• Aging will be a major theme. The number of elderly will explode,<br />
and perhaps surprisingly, 90% of this growth will take place in<br />
emerging markets.<br />
• Due mainly to explosive growth in many emerging markets, the world<br />
will experience its largest economic growth ever, and global real<br />
purchasing power will have quadrupled by 2050.<br />
• The world will experience significant, but decelerating population<br />
growth. Meanwhile, people will continue their net migration towards<br />
cities while many rural areas will get depopulated.<br />
• Global knowledge and innovation will continue to evolve<br />
exponentially, and by 2050, our combined commercially/technically<br />
useful knowledge will be 40-50 times as large as in 2010.<br />
www.supertrends.com<br />
• More and more industries will essentially become information<br />
technologies, and this will vastly accelerate their development pace.<br />
• We will not run out of any commodities, but we may experience<br />
temporary shortages of energy and metals due to the explosive growth<br />
in emerging markets<br />
• New technologies will provide the solutions to environmental<br />
problems, and many of these will be rapidly reduced as our<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong><br />
wealth and<br />
technical acumen grow.
There are lots of opportunities and unsolved problems…<br />
Healthcare Sector….<br />
• Aging population with fewer to pay<br />
• Infectious medicine<br />
Bakterier på hospitaler dræber patienter<br />
Mandag the 27. Februar 2012, 05:00... patienter, hvor det er dokumenteret, at<br />
de er døde som følge af skader efter at være blevet smittet med tarmbakterien<br />
med det videnskabelige navn Clostridium difficile CD027. I samme periode er<br />
antallet af smittede næsten fordoblet fra 598 i 2009 til 1.059 i 2011, fremgår det<br />
af tal fra ...<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
There are lots of opportunities and unsolved problems…<br />
Environmental Sector….<br />
• 9 x 10 9 in 2050<br />
• H 2 O<br />
Forurenet vand skal varsles hurtigere<br />
Onsdag the 9. November 2011, 03:00... laboratoriums analyser viser<br />
bakterier i drikkevandet, skal der fremover reageres prompte, ...<br />
grænseværdierne for eksempelvis bakterier i drikkevandet. Et laboratorium<br />
må ikke længere ... borgerne skal have, hvis deres drikkevand er forurenet.<br />
Det kan for ... rådgives om, hvordan man skal koge sit vand, før man bruger<br />
... 2010 leverede rent drikkevand til forbrugerne. ...<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
There are lots of opportunities and unsolved problems…<br />
Agriculture and Foodstuff Sector….<br />
• 9 x 10 9 in 2050<br />
• Protecting the food-supply chain<br />
Salmonella tre gange på en måned<br />
Mandag the 20. Februar 2012, 15:04 Den 27.<br />
januar advarede Fødevarestyrelsen mod<br />
salmonella i et parti hakket svine- og ... er tredje<br />
gang, at de finder salmonella i deres produkter,<br />
siger Kim Vandrup ... at forhindre de hyppige fund<br />
af salmonella, der alle gange er blevet opdaget ...<br />
råvarer ind, hvor der har været salmonella, som<br />
de ikke har ...<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
Investors and sponsors…<br />
Understanding what investors and sponsors want….<br />
• Global knowledge and innovation will continue to evolve exponentially<br />
• Value Propositions (big differences between market sectors)<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
Investors and sponsors…<br />
Few, expensive<br />
tests<br />
Many, cheap tests<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
“Risk comes from not knowing<br />
what you're doing.”<br />
“In the business world, the<br />
rearview mirror is always clearer<br />
than the windshield.”<br />
<strong>CiPoC</strong>
Change language