Annual Report 2009 UK - Bonfiglioli

Management Report
The United States GDP during the fourth quarter of 2009 rose by 5.6 from 2.2 in the previous quarter
(both at an annual rate). The acceleration is more or less attributable entirely to the dynamism of
stocks as both private consumption and foreign trade have had a limited impact on the dynamism of
the GDP. The year 2009 closed with a negative growth rate on the USA GDP of -2.4%.
Even in the United Kingdom the decline in economic activity slowed during the fourth quarter of
2009 after six consecutive quarters of negative rates. At the end of 2009 the negative growth of
British GDP settled at -4.9% (+0.5 at the end of 2008).
In Japan the economy in 2009 recorded a reduction in GDP growth of -5.2% (-1.2% at the end of
2008).
The fall in world demand and the reduced flow of foreign capital slowed down the main emerging
economies, whose expansion rates in some cases took a downward turn (Russia and Brazil). The
growth rates in China (+8.7%) and India (+5.7%) remained positive in 2009 however.
During the first quarter of 2010 global recovery is picking up speed. The reconstitution of stocks will
continue to provide a stronger boost in all areas, hand in hand with consumption, though in a less
uniform manner (stronger in emerging economies). In some countries the conditions required to start
the investments cycle for machinery are being created. The manufacturing sector, the most affected by
the crisis, is now the driving force: the relevant indexes have reached the highest multi-year figures (in
April in the Euro area 61.3, the highest in nearly 10 years); services are tagging along and are picking
up speed. The Italian economy is still giving contradictory signals (as shown by the drop in turnover
and orders), but is latching onto reawakening foreign demand: export is livelier, industrial production
is increasing especially in the current quarter. GDP growth, taking into account the likely rise in esti-
mates for the last quarter of 2009, will be much higher than expected. The level of activity in Italy is
however still quite low forcing companies to resort to the Layoff Benefits Fund. In general, the labour
market is still weak, which penalises the confidence and spending of families. There remain extremely
fragile elements making the global scenario uncertain. Firstly, in the financial system where indictment
of Goldman Sachs pairs with the case of Greece highlighting questions remaining unresolved. Inte-
rest rates will continue to be kept low. All the more so that, energy and food aside, retail prices are
sluggish. In the meantime increases in raw materials crush margins recorded by businesses and the
purchasing power of families. The exchange rates of Asian currencies will tend to appreciate following
the revaluation of the Chinese Yuan recently announced. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
estimated a 4.2% growth in the global economy for 2010, forecasting an additional + 4.3% for 2011.
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Annual Report 2009