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<strong>Update</strong> <strong>Presentation</strong><br />

the Republic of Latvia<br />

April 2010


<strong>Presentation</strong> Overview<br />

1. Overview and Latvia’s Fundamental Strengths 3<br />

2. Impact of the Crisis and the Government’s Response 7<br />

3. Initial Success 12<br />

4. Government Debt and Funding Strategy 19<br />

5. Conclusions 26


1. Overview and Latvia’s Fundamental Strengths


Latvia Overview<br />

<br />

<br />

Territory: 64,559 sq km<br />

Population: 2.3 million<br />

Capital: Riga (population: 0.7 million)<br />

Exchange rate: Latvian lat pegged to € since 2005<br />

– YTD LVL/€ (average): 0.7028<br />

– YTD LVL/$ (average): 0.5150<br />

GDP: LVL 13,244 million/ LVL 5,874 per capita (as of 2009)<br />

Credit ratings: Moody’s: Baa3 // S&P: BB // Fitch: BB+<br />

Main economic sectors:<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

4<br />

– Services (69.3% of GDP in 2009): logistics, IT, financial, trade<br />

– Manufacturing (8.7% of GDP in 2009): wood, metal, textile,<br />

chemicals, pharmaceutical<br />

Foreign trade:<br />

– Export: wood products, metal, chemicals, mechanical appliances,<br />

food<br />

– Import: mineral products, equipment, vehicles<br />

– Main trade counterparts<br />

– Import: EU (Lithuania, Germany, Estonia, Poland), Russia<br />

– Export: EU (Lithuania, Estonia, Germany, Sweden), Russia<br />

Life quality indicators:<br />

– Life expectancy: 72.5 years (avg, 2008)<br />

– Internet users: 60.9 per 100 inhabitants (2009)<br />

– Retirement age: 62 years<br />

– Average gross monthly salary: 461 LVL (2009)<br />

Politics:<br />

– Centre-right coalition headed by PM Valdis Dombrovskis<br />

– President Valdis Zatlers<br />

– October 2010: next parliamentary elections


Fundamentals Supporting Long-Term Growth<br />

A competitive and developed economy with a proven attractiveness to investors<br />

World Bank ‘Ease of Doing Business 2010’ Survey<br />

Foreign Investment<br />

Singapore<br />

United States<br />

Estonia<br />

Lithuania<br />

Latvia<br />

France<br />

Slovakia<br />

Bulgaria<br />

Hungary<br />

Portugal<br />

Slovenia<br />

Romania<br />

Spain<br />

Poland<br />

Italy<br />

Croatia<br />

1<br />

4<br />

24<br />

26<br />

27<br />

31<br />

42<br />

44<br />

47<br />

48<br />

53<br />

55<br />

62<br />

72<br />

78<br />

Ranked 27 th (out of 183)<br />

globally by the World<br />

Bank on ease of doing<br />

business<br />

103<br />

Cumulative FDI (LVL million)<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

Latvia has attracted<br />

strong foreign<br />

investment over the<br />

years<br />

In terms of business<br />

friendly environment,<br />

Latvia is ranked by<br />

the World Bank¹<br />

among:<br />

− The top 3 CEE<br />

countries<br />

− Top 30 globally<br />

by the World<br />

Bank<br />

¹ ‘Ease of Doing Business 2010 Survey<br />

Russia<br />

120<br />

Brazil<br />

Ukraine<br />

Source: World Bank<br />

129<br />

142<br />

0 25 50 75 100 125 150<br />

Global Rank<br />

0<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />

Cumulative FDI stock in equity capital<br />

Cumulative FDI stock in other capital<br />

5<br />

Source: Bank of Latvia


EU Fund Transfers<br />

Latvia has been a substantial recepient of EU fund transfers, which has supported foreign fund<br />

inflows<br />

Inflow of EU Funds<br />

Support Field Cumulative (LVL Million) (1) Total<br />

Pre-accession funds (2) 115.1 5.1%<br />

Structural funds (3) 797.0 35.1%<br />

Cohesion policy (4) 548.7 24.1%<br />

Common agricultural policy (5) 698.3 30.7%<br />

Transition policy 64.1 2.8%<br />

Other funds 42.1 1.9%<br />

Non-EU facilities 18.5 0.8%<br />

Repaid to EU -10.5 -0.5%<br />

Total LVL 2,273.4mn 100%<br />

(1) From 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2010<br />

(2) Pre-accession funds help to finance a Member State's expenditure on conforming its laws to the existing body of European<br />

Community law and on development in general.<br />

(3) Structural funds allow the EU to grant financial assistance to help resolve a Member State's structural economic and social<br />

problems.<br />

(4) Cohesion policy funds are designed to offset the burden of the single market for the less-favoured Member States or regions of<br />

Member States.<br />

(5) Common agricultural policy funds represent agricultural subsidies paid to a Member State.<br />

Source: The Treasury<br />

Cumulative (LVL Million) (2)<br />

Total<br />

Current expenditure 1,773.2 78%<br />

Capital expenditure 480.8 21%<br />

Funds received but not yet spent 19.4 1%<br />

Total LVL 2,273.4mn 100%<br />

(1) Without state co-financing<br />

(2) From 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2010<br />

6<br />

Use of EU Funds (1)<br />

Note: calculated based on statistical assumptions used in EDP (Excessive Deficit Procedure) tables prepared for Eurostat<br />

Source: The Treasury<br />

Breakdown of Jan-Mar, 2010 Inflow of EU Funds (LVL 195.6mn)<br />

Non-EU Facilities<br />

2,8%<br />

Other Funds<br />

1,2%<br />

Common<br />

Agricultural Policy<br />

33,0%<br />

Source: The Treasury<br />

Structural Funds<br />

28,2%<br />

Cohesion Policy<br />

34,9%<br />

Latvia's own resource payments to the EU<br />

Cumulative (LVL Million) (1)<br />

Total<br />

GNI (2) 476.6 64.9%<br />

VAT (3) 106.0 14.4%<br />

UK correction (4) 56.9 7.8%<br />

Traditional own resources (5) 94.5 12.9%<br />

Agricultural levies 5.0 0.7%<br />

Custom duties 86.4 11.8%<br />

Sugar levies 3.1 0.4%<br />

Total LVL 734.0mn 100%<br />

(1) From 1 May 2004 to 31 March 2010<br />

(2) Gross National Income, charged at a uniform rate of 0.73 per cent. of each Member State's gross national income<br />

(3) Charged at 0.3 per cent. of Latvia's VAT revenue (harmonised to reflect VAT rate differences between Member States)<br />

(4) Reflecting Latvia's contribution to the EU compensation paid to the UK in respect of its lower agricultural fund receipts<br />

(5) This represents duties that are charged on imports of relevant products into Latvia from a non-EU state.<br />

Source: The Ministry of Finance


2. Impact of the Crisis and the Government’s Response


EU Membership, Acceleration of Growth, and the Impact of the Crisis<br />

EU membership in 2004 marked a turning point<br />

EU Membership<br />

Acceleration of Growth<br />

Impact of the Crisis<br />

<br />

Growth of trade accelerated<br />

<br />

From 2004 to 2007 trade grew at<br />

a compound annual growth rate<br />

of 15.3%<br />

<br />

Investment grew much more rapidly<br />

than savings<br />

Gross fixed capital grew by over<br />

90%* between 2004 and 2007<br />

<br />

<br />

Contraction in GDP<br />

<br />

GDP contracted sharply due to<br />

the economic crisis, 18% in 2009<br />

Increase in unemployment<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Capital inflows rose sharply<br />

<br />

From 2004 to 2007 FDI grew at a<br />

compound annual growth rate of<br />

31%<br />

Productivity in industry improved<br />

Between 2004 and 2007<br />

Industrial output increased by<br />

over 20%<br />

GDP per capita rose substantially<br />

<br />

Over the same period real GDP<br />

per capita grew by 38.7%<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Current account deficit rose sharply<br />

Latvia’s current account deficit<br />

reached 22.3% of GDP in 2007<br />

External debt grew to an unsustainable<br />

level<br />

Private sector credit as a proportion<br />

of nominal GDP grew by 76%<br />

between 2004 and 2007<br />

Inflation accelerated<br />

Annual average CPI rose by 6.2%<br />

to 10.1% between 2004 and 2007<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Having fallen for a number of<br />

years, unemployment has spiked<br />

in 2009-2010<br />

Government’s fiscal position<br />

<br />

Despite the historical fiscal<br />

prudence, lower tax revenues<br />

have impacted government<br />

finances<br />

Central Government Debt<br />

<br />

Govt debt has increased, although<br />

is still very low when compared to<br />

EU peers<br />

*Note: using the expenditure method<br />

The emerging imbalances were intensified by the onset of the global recession<br />

8<br />

Source: The Treasury, Central Bank


The Government’s Response to the Crisis<br />

Summary of Objectives<br />

Overview of the Response<br />

Immediate Priorities<br />

Address the liquidity crisis<br />

Ensure long-term external stability<br />

Maintaining fixed exchange rate<br />

Long-Term Stabilisation through fiscal adjustment measures<br />

Readjust public debt levels to a decreasing and sustainable path<br />

Progressively narrow budget deficits in line with IMF and EU targets<br />

Achieve 3% of GDP budget deficit by 2012<br />

Public finances to be ready for Eurozone entry<br />

Stimulating economic growth<br />

Realise long-term growth by implementing further structural reforms<br />

Stimulating economic activity and improving competitiveness<br />

Banking sector stability<br />

Place the banking system on a stable footing with a solid capital base<br />

Increase depositor and creditor confidence<br />

Restoring confidence<br />

Improve perception of Latvia in the eyes of foreign investors<br />

Restore confidence of international financial markets<br />

Maintain transparency while carrying out the reforms<br />

Use of international support<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Total €7.5bn of loans, including from IMF, EU, Nordic countries, EBRD &<br />

other bilateral lenders out of which €4 bn have already been drawn (end<br />

of March 2010)<br />

Sufficient external funding to cover near term financing needs<br />

Currency stabilised and fixed exchange rate maintained<br />

Major fiscal reforms<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Tax reform and expenditure cuts initiated with the 2009 Budget<br />

2009 Supplementary Budget: further tax increases, expenditure cuts,<br />

including pensions and social benefits<br />

2010 Budget plans cements the fiscal consolidation<br />

Wide-ranging structural reforms<br />

<br />

<br />

Multi-phased pension expenditure cut<br />

Substantial reforms in healthcare and education systems<br />

Recapitalisation and reform<br />

<br />

<br />

Largest Scandinavian banks have provided their long-term commitment<br />

and support to Latvia<br />

The role of the financial sector regulator has been strengthened<br />

Consistent economic policy and commitment to Eurozone entry<br />

<br />

Swift implementation of the crisis management measures<br />

Commitment to adoption of the Euro by 2014<br />

The Government is committed to the implementation of its recovery package, despite the<br />

potentially painful adjustments in the short-term<br />

9


Latvia’s Fiscal Strategy: 2009 and 2009 Supplementary Budgets<br />

The Government has responded early and decisively by implementing substantial fiscal<br />

consolidation measures and expenditure cuts supported by social partners<br />

Expenditure Cuts<br />

Public Administration<br />

• Number of employees reduced<br />

• Average monthly salary reduced by 20%<br />

• Average remuneration reduction by more than 30% (bonuses<br />

not paid, supplements, compensations and allowances<br />

restricted)<br />

• Reduction of number of agencies (from 76 to 39 agencies)<br />

• Centralization of support functions (accounting, IT<br />

maintenance, public relations, personnel management)<br />

Education (since September 2009 a new financing model is<br />

introduced “money follows student” model, optimizing school<br />

network, increasing the number of students per workload)<br />

Health Care (establishment of effective network of health care<br />

service providers, reduction of the hospitals from 59 to 42,<br />

budget expenditure is reduced by 0.6% of GDP in 2009 )<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Revenue Increase<br />

VAT increased from 18% by 3% to 21%; the reduced rate from 5% to<br />

10%; reduction of number of goods subject to reduced VAT rate<br />

Increase of excise tax on alcohol, tobacco, fuel, non-alcoholic<br />

beverages, coffee<br />

Increase of gambling taxes<br />

Increase in dividend pay-out rates from state owned companies<br />

Monthly personal income tax allowance reduced from LVL90 to LVL35<br />

Fiscal Targets 1<br />

<br />

Budget deficits targeted to be<br />

- 2009: Below 10% of GDP<br />

- 2010: Below 8.5% of GDP<br />

- 2011: Below 6% of GDP<br />

- 2012 and beyond: Below 2.9% of GDP<br />

10<br />

<br />

Government will continue adjustments every year until the budget<br />

deficit is below the 3% of GDP Maastricht threshold<br />

1. According to ESA95 methodology


2010 Budget <strong>Update</strong><br />

<br />

Expenditure Cuts<br />

Decrease in remuneration of public sector employees<br />

Average monthly salary reduction by 5%<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

In the 2010 Budget, the Government intends to focus both on revenue increase and expenditure<br />

reduction for reducing the fiscal deficit<br />

<br />

Reduction of administrative costs of ministries<br />

Review of subsidies and grants, capital costs and transfers for<br />

municipalities have been decreased<br />

As well as:<br />

– public procurements decreased<br />

– implementation of investment projects revised<br />

These measures are designed to reduce expenditures by around<br />

LVL 244.6 million<br />

Raise of PIT rate from 23% to 26%<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Broadening of PIT base including all capital income with tax rate of<br />

15% (dividends and interest are taxed with rate 10%)<br />

Set a minimal level of excise duty<br />

Increase the excise duty on wine and fermented beverages and<br />

increase the excise duty on fermented beverages with absolute alcohol<br />

content up to 15 per cent<br />

Increase of tax on cars<br />

Revenue Increase<br />

Increase the annual fee on transport vehicles<br />

Taxation of fringe benefit from using employer car for employee'<br />

personal needs<br />

Introduction of a new excise tax on natural gas<br />

Increase of real estate tax rate form 1 to 1.5% on land and buildings<br />

used for business activities<br />

Introduction of a new real estate tax on residential buildings (including<br />

progressivity (rate from 0,1% to 0,3% depending on cadastral value),<br />

broadening of real estate tax base including civil engineering<br />

structures<br />

These measures are designed to increase revenues by around LVL<br />

262.9 million<br />

Fiscal Targets for 2010<br />

11<br />

<br />

<br />

Consolidated general government deficit/ projected nominal GDP: below<br />

8.5% of GDP<br />

Fiscal consolidation – 507.5 million lats: revenue – 262.9 or 2.2% of GDP<br />

and expenditure – 244.6 million lats or 2.1% of GDP


Economic Stimulus<br />

Economic growth • Credit guarantees (Latvian Guarantee Agency), till May’10 153 guarantees issued, in amount of 66<br />

mn EUR; Rural Development Fund guarantees for agricultural companies in amount of LVL44 mn<br />

Improving competitiveness<br />

<br />

Latvian Mortgage and Land bank’s support programme for SMEs, Ministry of Economy programme<br />

for promotion of business competitiveness and innovation in 2007-2013<br />

Labour market Activities to improve labour elasticity and competitiveness<br />

EU funds<br />

<br />

2007-2013 funding allocation to export and infrastructure projects, business development;<br />

accelerating EU fund allocation; reducing administrative borders; fund reallocation;<br />

Export support<br />

Export guarantees (Latvian Guarantee Agency), till May 20 th (2010), LGA has issued 36<br />

guarantees, total amount of guarantees 2.2 mn LVL; export credit insurance<br />

Resource effectiveness Heating energy saving for houses and centralized heat supply systems<br />

Entrepreneurship support<br />

<br />

Reduction of legal barriers for registration of real estate, construction, tax administration easening;<br />

reduction of administrative barriers for company registration<br />

Review of planned EU Funds’ activities<br />

Support for SMEs through Mortgage and Land Bank (available amounts)<br />

Objective: to find the most eligible way for implementation of the<br />

EU Funds in the context of economic crises<br />

Process: reviewed 85 of 150 EU Funds’ activities for 1’069 million<br />

EUR (20% of total allocation of public funding for 2007-2013)<br />

Result: reallocation of funding to the activities which would have<br />

the most positive impact on the recovery of national economy<br />

Start-up capital: LVL17 mn till 2013 (LVL1.7 mn issued)<br />

Microcredits for SMEs: LVL0.565 mn till 2010<br />

Improving competitiveness: LVL128.9 mm till 2013 (LVL119.7 mn issued)<br />

Loans to SMEs and agricultural companies: LVL70.3 mn till Oct-2011 (LVL3.4 mn issued)<br />

Loans to ensure current assets for agricultural products producing companies: LVL10 mn<br />

till 2011<br />

12<br />

Source: Ministry of Economics


Structural Reforms to Support Sustainable Recovery<br />

Education<br />

Pension Reforms<br />

<br />

<br />

Policy development based on negative demographic trends, new financing model - “money follows<br />

student”, plan for optimisation of the vocational education institution network for 2010–2015<br />

In 2010, it is planned to define necessary changes to the pension system to ensure financial<br />

stability of the pension system in medium and long term.<br />

Healthcare<br />

• Improving management of the healthcare system, reduction of the hospitals from 59 to 42,<br />

promotion of home care, development of the Emergency Medical Assistance Service<br />

Public Administration<br />

<br />

Wage reduction, reduction of employees in central state institutions, reduction of the number of<br />

agencies (from 76 to 39 agencies), centralisation of support functions<br />

Financial System • Banking system recapitalised, role of regulator strengthened, deposit guarantee laws streamlined<br />

To mitigate some of the recent policy responses, the Government in close corperation with World Bank has designed a comprehensive<br />

social safety net<br />

Implementation of the Social Safety Net<br />

Specific activities are foreseen for the domains of:<br />

welfare (Guaranteed Minimum Income increase; provision of housing benefit; Emergency social employment program),<br />

education (provision of education for children aged 5-6; provision of transport to schools for pupils from areas where schools have been closed down as a<br />

result of the education reform),<br />

transportation (compensation of losses to public transportation providers for transportation of particular socially vulnerable groups of people) and<br />

health (compensation mechanism to cover the patient copayments for needy persons, medication for needy patients, accommodation expenses for needy<br />

persons, provision of home care to needy persons with serious diseases; concentration of in-patient services to needy persons with mental diseases by<br />

decreasing the number of beds and developing day care centres).<br />

2010 State budget foresees financing for these activities in amount of LVL 56 645 569<br />

Latvian Strategic Development Plan 2010–2013 is approved by government setting key<br />

priorities and courses of action for economic growth and promoting social security, as well as<br />

13<br />

for improving efficiency of public administration


3. Initial Success


The Economy Is Already Adjusting and Reserves Have Recovered<br />

Taking Place<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

-10<br />

-15<br />

-20<br />

-25<br />

Source: Bank of Latvia<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

-10<br />

-12,8 -12,5<br />

2,4<br />

9,7<br />

Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia<br />

Current Account (% of GDP) Inflation (%)<br />

-22,5 -22,3<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />

Real Wages (Y-o-Y % change)<br />

15,6<br />

19,9<br />

6,2<br />

-5,6<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />

-13<br />

9,4<br />

The CA has<br />

swung into<br />

surplus in<br />

2009 for the<br />

first time in<br />

a number of<br />

years<br />

Downward<br />

pressure on<br />

wages should<br />

further boost the<br />

competitiveness<br />

of the economy<br />

Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia<br />

4 000<br />

3 500<br />

3 000<br />

2 500<br />

2 000<br />

1 500<br />

1 000<br />

500<br />

6,2 6,7 6,5<br />

Foreign Exchange Reserves (LVLm)*<br />

After reaching<br />

a peak in<br />

2008, inflation<br />

has reduced<br />

by 15<br />

percentage<br />

points to 0.3%<br />

Forex<br />

reserves have<br />

stabilized as,<br />

among others,<br />

substantial<br />

EU/IMF funds<br />

have been<br />

received<br />

0<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br />

* Net foreign assets equals convertible<br />

Source: Bank of Latvia<br />

Net foreign assets Monetary base foreign currency and gold reserves<br />

The current account deficit has shifted substantially to a sizeable surplus, inflation and wages<br />

15<br />

have fallen and FX reserves have stabilised<br />

20<br />

16<br />

12<br />

8<br />

4<br />

0<br />

10,1<br />

15,4<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar-10<br />

3,5<br />

0,3


Initial Success already Evident<br />

Spending Cuts<br />

Enacted<br />

Earlier spending cuts have had the desired effect, enabling the<br />

reduction of fiscal imbalances<br />

Fiscal Targets<br />

Met<br />

The government is on track to meet its budget deficit target as<br />

agreed with the IMF/EU<br />

Extra Funds<br />

Secured<br />

Additional external funding has been obtained from the World<br />

Bank, the IMF and the EU<br />

Confidence is<br />

Returning<br />

Recent domestic debt auctions and tightening of sovereign credit<br />

spreads show a return in investor confidence, credit rating<br />

stabilising<br />

The Government’s measures are already showing signs of success, with an improving fiscal<br />

position and the return of investor confidence<br />

16


Central government budget consolidation – expenditure reduction<br />

Central government revenue and expenditure, mln lats<br />

Several central government budget expenditure categories,<br />

mln lats<br />

6 000<br />

1800<br />

1600<br />

5 000<br />

1400<br />

4 000<br />

1200<br />

3 000<br />

Revenue<br />

1000<br />

800<br />

Social benefits<br />

Remuneration<br />

2 000<br />

Expenditure<br />

600<br />

400<br />

Capital expenditure<br />

1 000<br />

200<br />

-<br />

Execution of<br />

2008<br />

Execution of<br />

2009<br />

Plan of 2010<br />

0<br />

Execution of<br />

2008<br />

Execution of<br />

2009<br />

Plan of 2010<br />

17


Budget execution in 2009 and 1Q2010<br />

10%<br />

Budget Execution in 2009<br />

9%<br />

8%<br />

7%<br />

6%<br />

5%<br />

4%<br />

3%<br />

6,4% 6,8%<br />

9,0%<br />

• According to EU methodology<br />

(ESA 95) general government<br />

deficit in 2009 was 9.0% of GDP<br />

– lower than 10% deficit limit set<br />

by lenders.<br />

2%<br />

1%<br />

0%<br />

Central government deficit<br />

(% of GDP)*<br />

* On cash-flow basis<br />

General government deficit<br />

(% of GDP)*<br />

General government deficit<br />

by ESA95 (% of GDP)<br />

Budget Execution in 1Q’2010<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

General government deficit target for 2010 - 8,5% of GDP (on ESA terms)<br />

General government budget revenues in 1Q of 2010 were 5.7% less than in the same period of 2009, mainly due to<br />

decrease of central government basic budget tax revenue; and expenditure were 5.8% less<br />

As a result of better performance of VAT (by 20,4%) and corporate income tax (by 16,5 %) the state basic budget tax<br />

revenues were higher by 7,4 % ( 26,6 million lats) than expected in the 1Q. However excise tax on tobacco has given by<br />

37, 8% less income in the budget as planned<br />

General government budget deficit in 1Q of 2010 was 1.1% of GDP according to national methodology. Central<br />

government deficit was 1,5 % of GDP<br />

18


4. Government Debt and Funding Strategy


115,8<br />

Italy<br />

Low Public Debt and Prudent Debt Management<br />

Latvia has remained committed to keeping government debt at moderate levels…<br />

Government debt is amongst the lowest in the EU<br />

Conservative debt management policy has kept government debt at moderate levels over the past decade<br />

Government debt is well within the Maastricht limit of 60% of GDP<br />

General government debt at the end of 2009 was 36.1% of GDP<br />

General Government Debt (% of GDP, ESA 95 methodology, 2009-4th quarter)<br />

140<br />

7,2<br />

14,5<br />

14,8<br />

23,7<br />

29,3<br />

35,4<br />

35,7<br />

35,9<br />

36,1<br />

41,5<br />

42,3<br />

44,0<br />

51,0<br />

53,2<br />

56,2<br />

60,9<br />

64,0<br />

66,5<br />

68,1<br />

69,1<br />

73,2<br />

73,6<br />

76,8<br />

77,5<br />

78,3<br />

96,7<br />

115,1<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

% of GDP<br />

The 9th lowest<br />

Debt to GDP<br />

ratio in the EU<br />

0<br />

Estonia<br />

Luxembourg<br />

Bulgaria<br />

Romania<br />

Lithuania<br />

Czech Republic<br />

Slovakia<br />

Slovenia<br />

Latvia<br />

Denmark<br />

Sweden<br />

Finland<br />

Poland<br />

Spain<br />

Cyprus<br />

Netherlands<br />

Ireland<br />

Austria<br />

United Kingdom<br />

Malta<br />

Germany<br />

EU-27<br />

Portugal<br />

France<br />

Hungary<br />

Belgium<br />

Greece<br />

20<br />

…thus being in a position to comfortably absorb the full impact of the crisis


The Treasury’s Financing and Liquidity Strategy<br />

The Treasury’s borrowing strategy has been focused on maintaining high levels of liquidity<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

The Treasury’s liquidity position stands currently at its historically highest<br />

level<br />

Main part of the International lenders’ money is considered as a reserve<br />

or liquidity buffer<br />

Currently financing requirement is covered mainly by domestic securities<br />

issues (that is being rolled over)<br />

1 800<br />

1 600<br />

1 400<br />

1 200<br />

1 000<br />

Balance of Resources (Million LVL)<br />

Received 3rd<br />

tranches<br />

from EC and<br />

IMF<br />

1,578<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

LVL million<br />

5 000<br />

4 000<br />

3 000<br />

2 000<br />

1 000<br />

0<br />

-1 000<br />

-2 000<br />

-1 401 -1 286 -1 227<br />

2010 (1) 2011 2012<br />

Total central government financing requirement<br />

Financing requirement forecast and associated funding<br />

2 004<br />

1 578<br />

2010-end<br />

2011-end 2 643<br />

1 337<br />

Liquidity Buffer 1 125<br />

Liquidity Buffer<br />

LVL 2,004 mn<br />

LVL 2,643 mn 0<br />

490 800 800<br />

Domestic securities issues<br />

2012-end<br />

Liquidity<br />

Buffer<br />

LVL2,216<br />

mn<br />

Jan-06<br />

Mar-06<br />

May-06<br />

Jul-06<br />

Sep-06<br />

Nov-06<br />

Jan-07<br />

Mar-07<br />

May-07<br />

Jul-07<br />

Sep-07<br />

Nov-07<br />

Jan-08<br />

Million LVL 2010 (1) 2011 2012<br />

Total central government financing<br />

requirement (incl. refinancing of forecasted<br />

T-bills)<br />

Mar-08<br />

May-08<br />

Jul-08<br />

Sep-08<br />

Nov-08<br />

Jan-09<br />

Mar-09<br />

May-09<br />

Jul-09<br />

Sep-09<br />

Nov-09<br />

Jan-10<br />

(1,401) (1,286) (1,227)<br />

Planned funding activities 1,827 1,925 800<br />

Domestic securities gross issues 490 800 800<br />

International support 1,337 1,125 0<br />

Total Treasury balance (at year end) 2,004 2,643 2,216<br />

i.a. earmarked for banking sector<br />

support<br />

456 - -<br />

Mar-10<br />

21<br />

International support<br />

Cash balance (at the end of previous period)<br />

(1) April-December


Strong and Broad-Based International Support<br />

Tough adjustment measures have earned international financial support for Latvia<br />

Planned Assistance<br />

(€ Million) 2009 2010 2011 Total<br />

EU 2,200 700 200 3,100<br />

Nordic Countries<br />

(SE, DK, FI, NO, EE)<br />

- 1,000 900 1,900<br />

IMF 800* 500 400 1,700<br />

World Bank 200 200 - 400<br />

Other (CZ, PL, EBRD) 100 200 100 400<br />

Total 3,300 2,600 1,600 7,500<br />

* EUR 600 mn in December 2008<br />

Other<br />

€400mln<br />

5%<br />

IMF<br />

€1,700mln<br />

23%<br />

WB<br />

€400mln<br />

5%<br />

Breakdown by Institution<br />

EU<br />

€3,100mln<br />

42%<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Loans Disbursed to Date<br />

(€ Million) Disbursed Date Disbursed<br />

EU<br />

IMF<br />

EBRD<br />

World<br />

Bank<br />

First Tranche 1000 February 2009<br />

Second Tranche<br />

Third Tranche<br />

1200<br />

500<br />

August 2009<br />

March 2010<br />

First Tranche 600 December 2008<br />

Second Tranche<br />

200<br />

July 2009<br />

Third Tranche<br />

Investment in Parex bank &<br />

subordinated loan<br />

200<br />

February 2010<br />

100 September 2009<br />

First Tranche 200 November 2009<br />

Total 4,000 -<br />

The various financial assistance packages represent a total of<br />

€7.5 billion in loans<br />

As part of the assistance package, Latvia has committed to<br />

implement an economic reform programme<br />

Latvia’s assistance package is small relative to the resources<br />

available to the institutions providing the support<br />

Both the EU and the IMF have disbursed the third tranches of<br />

their respective loans following successful economic and other<br />

reform measures implemented by the government in the 2010<br />

budget in accordance with these agreements<br />

22<br />

Nordic Countries<br />

€1,900mln<br />

25%<br />

EU/IMF review mission is planned in May 2010<br />

Source: Treasury, IMF, EU


Return of Investor Confidence<br />

16<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

Recent demand for domestic debt and recovery in credit spreads underpins investors’<br />

confidence in Latvia’s recovery <br />

Average Weighted Yields at Domestic T-bills Competitive Multiprice Auctions<br />

%<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Latvia’s recovery has been further<br />

boosted by the return of regular<br />

domestic debt auctions<br />

Since June 2009 the Treasury has<br />

steadily been increasing the average<br />

maturity of its domestic securities<br />

portfolio by issuing longer dated<br />

securities<br />

Average weighted yield rates have<br />

markedly decreased over the last<br />

quarter of 2009 and 1st quarter of 2010<br />

Credit spreads on Latvia’s Eurobond<br />

have substantially rallied, tightening by<br />

around 240bps since their highs<br />

23<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4.712%<br />

4<br />

3.038%<br />

2<br />

0<br />

Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10<br />

1M 3M 6M 12M 2Y 3Y<br />

Source: The Treasury.<br />

5.933%<br />

5.093%<br />

3.18%<br />

1.804%<br />

Spread vs MS (bps)<br />

700<br />

650<br />

600<br />

550<br />

500<br />

450<br />

400<br />

350<br />

300<br />

250<br />

Eurobond 2018 Performance<br />

200<br />

Nov-<br />

08<br />

Jan-<br />

09<br />

Mar-<br />

09<br />

May-<br />

09<br />

Jul-<br />

09<br />

Sep-<br />

09<br />

Nov-<br />

09<br />

Jan-<br />

10<br />

Mar-<br />

10<br />

Source: Bloomberg


Extended Maturity Profile and Decreasing Rates<br />

Domestic T-Bill Competitive Multi-price Auctions in January-April 28, 2010<br />

24<br />

mn, lats<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

Source: The Treasury.<br />

10 years<br />

26%<br />

Source: The Treasury.<br />

5 years<br />

16%<br />

11 years<br />

4%<br />

28 days<br />

4% 91 days<br />

10%<br />

364 days<br />

24%<br />

182 days<br />

16%<br />

2010 Jan-Apr 28:<br />

LVL251.22 mn<br />

3-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

3-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

2-y<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

2-y<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

2-y<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

12-m<br />

3-y<br />

6-m<br />

12-m<br />

January February March April<br />

Amount sold (LHS) Bid-cover Ratio (RHS)<br />

Bid-to-Cover ratio: Bid Amount to State Treasury offered amount<br />

Domestic Securities outstanding at the 2nd quarter, 2009 and as of 30 Apr, 2010<br />

10 years<br />

24%<br />

5 years<br />

9%<br />

3 years<br />

2%<br />

2 years<br />

6%<br />

11 years<br />

4%<br />

182 days<br />

23%<br />

364 days<br />

32%<br />

5,0<br />

4,0<br />

3,0<br />

2,0<br />

1,0<br />

0,0<br />

Ratio<br />

Funding shifts away from<br />

short term bills to medium<br />

term bonds while average<br />

yields decrease<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

In 2010 the government has<br />

successfully completed 17<br />

auctions of 3m, 6m, and 12m<br />

T-Bills and 2y and 3y T-bonds<br />

raising over LVL250mn in<br />

competitive multiprice auctions<br />

and LVL 355mn in total<br />

(competitive multiprice and<br />

non-competitive domestic<br />

securities auctions).<br />

As of 30 th June 2009, T-Bills<br />

maturing in 28-days<br />

represented 4% of total<br />

portfolio<br />

By 30 April 2010, the Treasury<br />

achieved the following:<br />

– No 28-day and 91-day<br />

T-Bills were<br />

outstanding<br />

– The share of 182 day<br />

T-Bills was increased<br />

from 16% to 23%<br />

– 6% and 2% of 2-year<br />

and 3-year bonds<br />

outstanding


Government Debt Profile<br />

Modest government debt redemptions in the short-term<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

25<br />

Latvia faces minimal government external debt repayments in the<br />

next two years<br />

– As 97% of 2010-2011 debt repayments are represented by<br />

domestic debt, refinancing risk is minimal especially given<br />

the recent successes in terms of domestic debt auctions<br />

The largest portion of external government debt is now<br />

represented by the recent EU and IMF loans which were incurred<br />

since the start of the crisis<br />

Eurobonds outstanding in amount of €800mn (2 issues) as of<br />

31 st Mar. 2010<br />

– €400mn due in April 2014<br />

– €400mn due in March 2018<br />

External Govt. Debt Breakdown (31st Mar 2010)<br />

Source: The Treasury.<br />

Eurobonds<br />

15%<br />

World Bank<br />

4%<br />

NIB<br />

3%<br />

Other<br />

1%<br />

European<br />

Commission<br />

49%<br />

EIB<br />

7%<br />

IMF<br />

21%<br />

Modest nearterm<br />

debt<br />

redemptions:<br />

LVL486mn over<br />

2010 (98%<br />

domestic debt)<br />

Source: The Treasury.<br />

Increase in<br />

external debt<br />

due to<br />

international<br />

financial<br />

assistance<br />

package<br />

Debt Redemption Profile (end of Mar 2010)<br />

100%<br />

90%<br />

80%<br />

70%<br />

60%<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

1400<br />

1200<br />

1000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

Domestic<br />

External<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

Breakdown between External and Domestic Govt. Debt<br />

Source: The Treasury.<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

43% 44% 42% 38%<br />

57% 56% 58% 62%<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

52%<br />

48%<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

22% 20%<br />

78% 80%<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar-10<br />

External<br />

Domestic<br />

Largest<br />

commitments in<br />

2014-15<br />

represent<br />

EU/IMF loans<br />

>=2021


5. Conclusions


Key Conclusions<br />

The Crisis a consequence<br />

of economic imbalances<br />

• Latvia is currently dealing with the consequences of imbalances neglected too long<br />

during the boom years<br />

Economic recovery is<br />

Latvia’s No.1 Priority<br />

• The Government is taking firm measures to stabilize the economy while preserving the<br />

soundness of public finances<br />

The Government is fully<br />

committed to its policy<br />

package<br />

•Full recovery will take some time but the Government is committed to the full<br />

implementation of its adjustment program, as painful as it may be<br />

Fixed Exchange Rate is<br />

the cornerstone of<br />

economic policy<br />

•The fixed exchange rate policy is intact and will drive needed improvements in Latvia’s<br />

international competitive position<br />

Strong support from the<br />

international community<br />

•The Government’s policies are backed by the international community, through support<br />

packages by the IMF, the EU, the World Bank and the Scandinavian countries and others<br />

Euro adoption remains a<br />

core objective<br />

•Latvia’s commitment to Euro adoption in 2014 is at the centre of our economic policies.<br />

More reforms, not less will be needed to ensure Latvia’s future prosperity.<br />

27

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