Assessment of CFSRR medium range forecast skill

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CFS reforecasts • R2 analysis • T62L64 • GFS Physics 90 80 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts • Improvement over R1 attributed to: • 2003 GFS physics • Systematic error correction 70 60 50 40 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 NH CFS R2 NH CDAS/Reanl SH CFS R2 SH CDAS/Reanl
CFSRR Lite 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts • 2007 GFS system • Hybrid p-sigma • Radiance Assimilation • GSI • Test entire period 1979-2007 • Each year run independently • T62L64 Atmos. Only • Test the obs input • Test SSU (channel 1-2 only) 90 80 70 60 NH CFSRR Lite SH CFSRR Lite NH CFS R2 SH CFS R2 • Modest gain in NH skill • Dramatic gain in SH skill 50 40 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Page 1 and 2: Medium Range Forecast Skill CFSRR,
Page 3 and 4: Acknowledge other Reanalyses • Th
Page 5 and 6: Polar Orbiter Satellite Profiles
Page 7 and 8: 1994, Start of R1 • GFS T126L28 5
Page 9: 1998 - 2003 • 2000 T170L42 500 mb
Page 13 and 14: CFSRR Full vs Lite • ATOVS appear
Page 15 and 16: CFSRR vs R1 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts
Page 17 and 18: Future ? • Replace 1948 -1978 R1
Page 20: 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts 90 NH CFSRR

Assessment of CFSRR medium range forecast skill

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