Assessment of CFSRR medium range forecast skill

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Purpose • Place the CFSRR in context of data assimilation and global forecast improvements at NCEP over the past 2 decades 90 80 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts NH GFS SH GFS NH CDAS/R1 70 • Anomaly Correlation (AC) • 500 mb • Annually Averaged • Hemispheric, NH ad SH • 1xdaily 120hr forecast 60 50 40 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 SH CDAS/R1
Acknowledge other Reanalyses • Third International Conference on Reanalysis, Tokyo, Japan, Jan 28-Feb 1, 2008 • MERRA • ERA-15, ERA-40, ERA-Interim • NCEP NARR • 20 th Century • JRA-25 • Uccellini and Kocin Northeast Snowstorms
Page 1: Medium Range Forecast Skill CFSRR,
Page 5 and 6: Polar Orbiter Satellite Profiles
Page 7 and 8: 1994, Start of R1 • GFS T126L28 5
Page 9 and 10: 1998 - 2003 • 2000 T170L42 500 mb
Page 11 and 12: CFSRR Lite 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts
Page 13 and 14: CFSRR Full vs Lite • ATOVS appear
Page 15 and 16: CFSRR vs R1 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts
Page 17 and 18: Future ? • Replace 1948 -1978 R1
Page 20: 500 mb 5 Day Forecasts 90 NH CFSRR

Assessment of CFSRR medium range forecast skill

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