For UFO Study? - The Black Vault

letters
from the approximately 400Q initial Reports.
Of the 2199 reports, the partel,
such as those made by Condon and m deemed 213 (9.7%) as excellent sighting I
self/
757 (34.5%) as good, 794 (36%) as doubtful
From time to-time, newspapers carry and 435 (19.8%) as poor sightings. Each
stories headlined about as follows: reliability group was further analyzed to
"UFO's Gaining More Attention Among • determine what fraction could be ex-
Scientists." The story may sound con- plained, for example, astronomically or as
vincing, except when one reads the names balloons. The findings were remarkable,
of the individuals promoting the idea or Of the 213 excellent sightings, 33.3%
.participating in some scientific confer- remained unidentified after evaluation.
. ence, one will find that the propaganda Similarly, 24.8% of the good reports reoriginates
again and again from the same mained unknown, while only 16.6% of the
group of dedicated ufologists, trying to poor and 13% of the doubtful sightings
drum up financial support for their in- were unexplained. In other words, the
vestigations.
more reliable the sighting, the more un-
Letus keep PHYSICS TODAY for science likely that the object could be identified!
and not for mysticism. If we are to open One quarter to one third of the best
its columns to ufology, why not to astrol- sightings remained a mystery. And good
ogy, a current fad even more popular than and excellent sightings comprised nearly
UFO's in their day? What about alche- one-half of the total number evaluated
my? The N-rays, the Allison Effect, during that period.
Mitogenetic Radiation, and hundreds of However, there was not any follow up.
other once popular fads? The phenom- Nowhere in the text was this figure even
enon of the UFO is not "baffling," except discussed. The study merely concluded
to those whose wish to believe in the re- that "a critical examination of the figures
ality of the phenomenon amounts almost will show that no trends, patterns or corto
a religious mania.
relations are to be found..." Criteria for
If this note appears in "Letters," I reliability estimates are not mentioned.
predict that "Party Liners" will send The summary released to the press did
vigorous protests^ perhaps citing the no- not discuss that analysis. Rather, it
torious boo-boo of the French Academy mentioned that since 1954, better invesin
1790, when they refused to recognize tigation had reduced the ratioof the total
the cosmic origin of meteorites—a deci- number of unidentifieds to the total
sion they reversed only 13 years later. I number of sightings to 3% (it quoted 9%
most certainly do not wish to hinder !e- es the&gure for 1953 to 1954). We must
gitiuiate scientific inquiry. But I see conclude tn&ttoitrier the number of "unnothing
in UFO's that merits the con- identifieds" had actually been high but
tinuing support—moral or financial— decreased or that more sightings were now
eagerly sought by the ufological fraternity, being vectored into the category "insuf-
For reliable information on the subject, I ficient information." The above trend
commend the recent book, UFO's Ex- was simply ignored.
plained, by Philip J. Klass, published by .-,' Others, beside Menzgl, had access to
Random House. .
official UFO files. Edward Ruppelt, Di-
DONALD H. MENZEL rector of Project Blue Book from 1951 to
Center for Astrophysics 1.953, writes 2 "to one who is intimately
Cambridge, Massachusetts familiar with UFO history it is clear that
. Project Grudge (the second USAF
project, 1949 to 1951) had a two-phase
THE AUTHOR COMMENTS: Itisunfor-' program of UFO annihilation. The first
tunate that Donald' Menzel chooses to phase consisted of explaining every litapromulgate
the view that UFO's are only /j cs added] UFO report. The second
dealt with by a small, clandestine group phase was to tell the public how the Air
of "avid ufologists" and "believers." It is Force had solved all the sightings. This,
precisely the attitude that PHYSICS Project Grudge reasoned, would put an
TODAY should refrain from publishing end to UFO reports." Ruppelt goes on to
UFO material that has relegated such quote an Air Force colonel, whom he dereports
to folklore and the popular press, scribes as directing the UFO project in
Without opportunity for the exchange of 1950, as saying "it's all a bunch of damned
information in which some confidence nonsense ... there's rio |uch thing as a (
may be taken, half truths and cultists flying saucer." The ctftonel felt that "all
flourish.
people who saw flying saucers were jokers,
If there is something in UFO reports crackpots or publicity hounds." Pilots
worth studying, why has nothing surfaced who saw UFO's "were just fatigued" (see
over the past 28 years?
pages 84 and 108-112)., Most reports
In 1^55, tjie Air Force released a study 1 ., .Jndicate otherwise. $?• . > «
of the reports'received between June 1947 This type of bias cannfc precipitate a
and December 1952. Contained within, strong, impartial examination of whatever
figure 8 shows the "Distribution of Object facts have accrued. It indicates a sur-
Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups prising attitude for an investigative body,
with Evaluation Distributions for Each I chose to criticize Condon for similar ut-
Group," based upon 2199 cases selected J^ continued on page 76
. ;.*•