David Catty presentation
David Catty presentation
David Catty presentation
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ASEAN<br />
OUR BIGGEST TRADING REGION<br />
Presentation to Nelson Exporter Lunch<br />
Thursday 13 June 2013<br />
by <strong>David</strong> <strong>Catty</strong>, Director<br />
ASEAN NZ Combined Business Council
Asia Share of World GDP over 1000 years!
Shift of Power from West to East
ASEAN
ASEAN<br />
• INDONESIA<br />
• MALAYSIA<br />
• PHILIPPINES<br />
• SINGAPORE<br />
• THAILAND<br />
**********************<br />
• BRUNEI DARUSSALAM<br />
• VIET NAM<br />
• LAOS<br />
• MYANMAR (BURMA)<br />
• CAMBODIA
ASEAN<br />
• Established 1967<br />
• Population 600 million<br />
• GDP USD 2 trillion<br />
• Total trade USD 1.4 trillion<br />
• Goods & Services Trade with NZ – NZD 13.9 billion<br />
• Overtaken EU as biggest merchandise trade region<br />
• Full ASEAN community by end 2015
At the 12th ASEAN Summit in 2007, the Leaders<br />
affirmed their strong commitment to accelerate the<br />
establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015……<br />
…. We will create a stable, prosperous and highly<br />
competitive ASEAN Economic Region in which there is<br />
a free flow of goods, services and investments, a<br />
freer flow of capital, equitable economic development<br />
and reduced poverty and socio-economic disparities.
COMPARATIVE TRADE<br />
(nzd bl – Y/E Dec 12 – Dept Stats Merchandise Trade)<br />
EXPORT IMPORT TOTAL<br />
AUSTRALIA 10.8 7.0 16.8<br />
CHINA 6.9 7.3 14.2<br />
ASEAN 4.4 7.5 11.9<br />
EU 4.6 6.9 11.5<br />
USA 4.2 4.1 8.3<br />
JAPAN 3.2 2.8 6.0
ASEAN NATIONS TRADE<br />
WITH NZ<br />
(nzd ml – Y/E Dec 12 – Dept Stats Merchandise Trade)<br />
EXPORT IMPORT TOTAL RANK<br />
SINGAPORE 845 2110 2955 6<br />
MALAYSIA 888 1835 2723 8<br />
THAILAND 626 1509 2136 10<br />
INDONESIA 838 659 1566 13<br />
PHILIPPINES 678 142 820 23<br />
VIETNAM 451 326 777 24
NZ ASEAN COMMODITIES<br />
y/e Dec 12 –Dept Stats<br />
Exports<br />
Dairy 51.0 %<br />
Forestry 6.5 %<br />
Meat 5.6 %<br />
Malt extract 3.0 %<br />
Imports<br />
Petroleum/oil 46.0 %<br />
TV/Computers/Whiteware etc 8.0 %<br />
Vehicles 6.0 %<br />
Oil cake 3.5 %
Export Opportunities<br />
• Further FTA tariff reductions
% of trade subject to duty<br />
AANZFTA: Tariff Reduction<br />
100%<br />
Tariff Reduction under AANZFTA: Indonesia, Viet Nam,<br />
Philippines and Malaysia<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
Indonesia<br />
Viet Nam<br />
Philippines<br />
Malaysia<br />
0%<br />
Base<br />
Rate<br />
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025<br />
Year
Export Opportunities<br />
• Emerging middle class market
China, ASEAN, World, N America , Europe<br />
Real GDP Growth (EIU)
The emerging middle class –<br />
ASEAN per capita GDP growth to 2014<br />
Per capita GDP in US$000<br />
Country 2009 2014 increase%<br />
Brunei Darussalam 37.0 40.0 9<br />
Cambodia 0.8 1.1 45<br />
Indonesia 2.2 3.1 42<br />
Lao 0.9 1.2 33<br />
Malaysia 7.4 9.7 30<br />
Myanmar 0.4 0.5 16<br />
Philippines 1.7 2.1 21<br />
Singapore 36.0 42.0 17<br />
Thailand 4.0 5.3 34<br />
Vietnam 1.0 1.6 53
Indonesia’s Middle Class<br />
(one with a disposable household income of over US$ 3,000 a year)<br />
The country’s bourgeoisie is bigger than that in India and elsewhere<br />
in the region<br />
(in million people)<br />
171<br />
244<br />
150<br />
1.6<br />
50<br />
2004 2009 2014 2020 2030<br />
Sources: Nomura, the World Bank, CEIC, Standard Chartered
Export Opportunities<br />
• Manufacturing in ASEAN<br />
• Food safety focus<br />
• Many others !<br />
– Education<br />
– Geothermal<br />
– Aviation<br />
– Agritechnology<br />
– F & B
Challenges<br />
• Non Tariff Barriers (NTB)<br />
– The blockage at Tanjung Priok<br />
• The “C” word<br />
• Culture and Protocol<br />
• Adapting your product to local tastes and<br />
requirements<br />
• Long term commitment - a sine qua non<br />
• It’s a marathon not a sprint
Success factors<br />
• Greater engagement (research / visit market)<br />
• Distribution channels / networks<br />
• Differentiation from local product<br />
• Strong, long term partnerships<br />
• Collaboration where appropriate<br />
• Direct customer contact<br />
• Tenacity<br />
• High karaoke skills
Gavin Faull’s Ten Commandments for Success<br />
(well, nine of them anyway!)<br />
• Get out into the market<br />
• Learn<br />
• Listen<br />
• Work with others<br />
• Pick yourself up if you fall<br />
• Must eat noodles<br />
• Travel<br />
• Share success<br />
• Don’t listen to negative people
ASEAN Strategy issues for NZ Inc<br />
Include:<br />
• Our profile in ASEAN needs elevation<br />
• ASEAN is not well known in NZ<br />
• Strategy of Focus<br />
• 5 year plan in partnership with business sector<br />
• Trade Commissioner in Indonesia<br />
• Bring business leaders to NZ, re-visit Colombo plan<br />
• Business friendliness<br />
• Clarify investment policy<br />
• Immigration – don’t impede export opportunities<br />
• Education (e.g. no bahasa studies in NZ despite 250 million popn)
Thanks for listening, Folks!<br />
• ASEAN – a market which can’t be ignored<br />
• Heaps of opportunities in a generally favourable and friendly<br />
environment<br />
• We need to elevate our profile in ASEAN and promote<br />
ASEAN in New Zealand too<br />
• Why not join ANZCBC ?<br />
– email dcatty@asean.org.nz www.asean.org.nz
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