Transport

Hypermotorization in Asian Cities –
When The Solution Becomes The Problem
Lee Schippe
Precourt Energy Efficiency Cente
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Precourt Energy Efficiency Center (PEEC)
Stanford University
• A research and analysis institute at Stanford
• Established in October 2006
• Initial funding: $30 million pledge by Jay Precourt
• Now PEEC Part of the Larger Precourt institute
• Mission – Keep our PEECers Up
– To improve opportunities for and implementation of
energy efficient technologies, systems, and practices,
with an emphasis on economically attractive
deployment
– Focus on the demand side of energy markets
– Energy efficiency: economically efficient reductions
in energy use (or energy intensity)
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Knee-Jakarta Reaction to Mal-Asia?
Schipper PEEC
Stanford
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Asia: lumbering into modernity
Schipper PEEC Stanford
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Schipper PEEC Stanford
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Schipper PEEC Stanford
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Congestion or Access?
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Better Urban Transport: Choice or Choke?
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8

How Sustainable Transport
Serves, not Severs, Urban Development
• Economic Sustainability
– Affordable to users and authorities
– Attractive as a business
– Each mode bears social costs
• Social Sustainability
– Promotes access for all, not just a few
– Makes room for all
– Avoids irreversible binds
• Environmental Sustainability
– Leaves no burdens for future generations
– Minimizes accidents and damage to human health
– Reduces greenhouse gas emissions
Governance - The Roof Over these Pillars
Make and Keep the Rules, Protect the Weak
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Transport Most Rapidly Rising CO2 Emission Source
Most of Increase in Developing World
Asia Small but Rising
2
O
C
s
e
n
To
n
M
30000
25000
20000
15000
International Sea and Air Bunkers
China Transport
Asia excl China Transport
Rest of World Transport
Latin American w Mexico Transport
OECD Transport
China non‐Transport
Asia Excl China non‐Transport
Rest of World non‐transport
Latin America non Transport
OECD non Transport
10000
5000
0
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
10

4 Wheeled Motorization and Economic Growth:
The China Syndrome?
Source: EMBARQ
Key Question: Is this path of motorization good? Inevitable or
11 avoidable?
11

Road Transport Emissions Relative to GDP?
India and China Relatively Low
0.18
Kilograms CO2/$US of GDP (2000 PPP)
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
1990
2006
0.00
US, Canada
OECD
Europe
OECD
Pacific
E Europe
LAC w
Mexico
China
India
*
* 1990 figure includes many non-transport uses
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Light Duty Vehicle Ownership and Income
Again India and China Very Low
LDV/1000 people
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
36.26
25.64
Light Duty Vehicles/Capita
Light Duty Vehicles/$1mn of GDP
GDP/Capita, US$ 2000 PPP
22.68
10.12
7.63
6.15
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
LDV/$Mn GDP (2000 PPP)
100
3.07
5
0
0
US, Canada
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
E Europe
LAC w Mexico
China
India
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Future CO2 Emissions from Transport in Asia
Even After 20% Reduction in Fuel/km, Still Out of control
(Source WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project)
LDVs out
of control
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“ASIF” Decomposition
Measuring and Understanding Impacts
Fuel Use
CO2,
Air pollution
Congestion
Accidents
Impacts from
Transport
G = A * S i * I i * F i,j
Total Transport
Activity
Veh-km and
pass-km by mode
Emissions per
unit of energy
or volume or km
Technological energy
efficiency
Occupancy/
Load Factor
Modal Energy
Intensity
Vehicle characteristics
Vehicle fuel
intensity
Real drive cycles and routing
Lesson : Attack All Components of Transport
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Transport- Fuel - CO2 Mitigation: ASIF #1.5
(Activity x Mode Structure x Intensity x Fuel Carbon Content)
Avoid CO2-Intensive
Development:
Singapore Land Use Planning,
Congestion Pricing
Shift and Strengthen:
Ahmedabad
Improve and Mitigate:
Efficient Vehicles
Improve and Mitigate:
True Low Carbon Fuels
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Reaping Benefits and Co-benefits
Imposing External Costs and Enabling Good Transport
• Main Social Costs
– Accidents, congestion, air pollution and health, road wear, CO2 etc
– Need stakeholder in puts on different valuations of costs, benefits
– Requires good monitoring of transport activity, emissions, health
• Collecting the Money
– GPS, cell phone/mesh network charging for road use, parking
– Differentiated taxes on fuels (CO2 and quality) and emission controls
– Marginal cost fees on new property development
• Spending
– Money to general funds – avoid hypothecation
– Make projects compete with other social needs (Swedish approach)
– But save some money for equity -- protect weak groups
Nothing Persuades More than Dollars, Rupees, RMB or Dong
We’re Smart Enough to Alleviate Hardship
–18
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Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) – Mexico’s Metrobus
260,000 people/day over 20km for US $60mn
Lower emissions, CO2, reduced car traffic
19

Metrobus CO2 Changes by Component
Savings roughly 1/3 mode shift, 1/3 parallel traffic, 1/3 bus
switching)
600
550
500
450
400
Source Rogers 2006, 2009
Thousand Tonnes CO2
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Before
After
A. 20 Extra Metrobus
B. Original 70 Metrobus on Route
C. Colectivos and RTP Buses Removed
D. Car Users Shifting to Metrobus
E. Delays to vehicles crossing Insurgentes
F. Additional Distance for Left turns
G. Savings from improved parallel traffic
H. Remaining parallel traffic
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Benefits from Metrobus: Broad Than Just CO2
Transport, Health Benefits >> CO2 Benefits
$25
CO2 reduction in parallel traffic
$20
CO2 reduction, mode shift car to bus
Million $US (2005)
$15
$10
$5
CO2 reduction from bus switch
Fuel savings to parallel traffic
Fuel saving, mode switch car to bus
Fuel Savings from bus switch
Air Pollution/Health Benefits from
lower air pollution
VKt external costs -- reduction in all
traffic
Time Savings of Bus Riders
$0
Low CO2 Value ($5/tonne)
High CO2 Value
($85/tonne)
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Why Is Asia Special?
•Dozens of Cities over 5 mn, yet Still Urbanizing
• From slums of India and Indonesia to “planned” communities in China
• Incomes rising rapidly with manufacturing, IT
• Intercity travel, freight mostly road (ex India, China rail and now air)
• Car Motorization Low in Most Places
• Two wheeler ownership very high in some places – move to cars soon?
• Vehicle industry just getting started or modernized (India, China)
• 80% of urban trips “outdoors” (feet, m’cycle, bike, bus w/open windows).
•Alternatives Possible?
• Singapore model – regulation and market forces
• Little other experience except transport chaos and air pollution
• Willingness of China to lead? VN two wheeler model? Nano in India?
Asia is Poised to either Continue on EU/US Patterns or
Find a New Path – Does it Exist?
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Introduction: Basic Thesis about
(Hyper)-Motorization in China/Asia
• Speed of Motorization leaving officials, walkers behind
– Incomprehensible growth rate in car ownership
– Very poor data on use, fuel consumption, etc
– Small motor vehicles in many forms (2-3-4 wheels, “6 seater” etc)
• Little Policy Competency to Slow or Control
– Glory of modern motorization trumping other concerns
– Whole city sections rapidly transformed into asphalt
– Over-reliance on “technology” – human beings not in picture
• “Unintended” (or unknown?) Consequences
– Burgeoning road fatalities (over half walkers, cyclists)
– Air Pollution from vehicles rapidly replacing that from industry
– Congestion now major threat to productivity, well being
Hyper Motorization = Ownership, Use of Private Vehicles
Outruns Public Investment, Human Capacity to Contain Problems
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Hyper-Motorization in Asia:
Longer-Term Consequences
• Congestion means lower speeds, longer trips
– Low road space per vehicle – but dense vehicles/sq km
– Road building won’t help
– Density increases human exposure to emissions, pollution
• Decay of Traditional Modes (bus, rail, feet)
– Clamor for private cars
– Status of car ownership
– Development of car-oriented cities, suburbs, etc
• Hyper-motorization Leaves No Time for Thought
– Present decision makers grew up before cars
– Little planning experience or visualization of future
– No time for fuel and pollution fixes to catch up!
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Dilemma for Developing World: Can Traditional
Four Wheels Provide Real Mobility?
• China
– Ring roads, freeways, and traffic fatalities
– Cities suffering from car oriented development
– Fuel economy standards but skyrocketing car ownership
• India – Motorization Exploding?
– Hectic, polluting mix of hooves, feet, and wheels
– Few cities have organized public transport
– Transport very contentious in big cities
• Viet Nam (Hanoi): Bikes of Burden
– 1+ moped/household –works until cars overwhelm
– Bus and rail development could provide backbone
– A sustainable pattern for much of the world?
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Hypermotorization in China:
Symbol for Much of the World?
• Congestion: Cars, Other Traffic
• Buses and people stuck in traffic
• Building more roads makes problem worse
• Tough policies called for – by whom?
• Air Pollution: Too Many Vehicles
• Enough old smokers to ruin air
• New fuels, vehicles improving
• Emissions from cars could offset
improvements
• Traffic Safety: People First
• Walkers, cyclists main victims
• Too many kinds of traffic in same place,
unequal road space distribution
• More cars and speed will kill more people
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120
Total Carbon Emissions (Mn Tonnes)
The Sustainability Challenge:
Cars and CO 2 Emissions in 2020
Electricity, as Primary Energy
100
100
CNG
80
Oil in Hybrids
80
60
40
20
0
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27
Oil in Conventional Gasoline Cars
60
CO2 Emissions
40
20
0
2003: Road Ahead
2010
2020
Oil Saved
2010
2020
Integrated Transport
2010
2020
Sustainable Urban Mobility Saves Cities, Fuel, and
Above all, Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Energy Use for Cars, by source, MTOE

Cheap Two Wheelers,
but No Sidewalks
The Peoples’ Car:
Which People?
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Scenarios and Assumptions for India*
• Business as Usual (BAU)
– Unconstrained development of road traffic and vehicle demand
– Infrastructure is assumed to not be a constraint
• Energy Efficiency
– Higher fuel efficiency
– 1 Lakh ($2500) car? Efficiency boon or hypermotorization bust?
• Clean Two and Three wheelers
– Cleaner fuels and two and three-wheelers
– Increases in two and three wheeler modal shares
– Reduction in all other types of private transport modes
• Sustainable Cities/Urban Transport (SUT)
– Demand management and modern mass transit
– Regulation of private car use reflected by
reduction in modal share
– Widespread implementation of BRT systems
• Extra Effort -- All of the above
* Work done with Shyam Menon, W. Bank
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CO 2 Emissions by Transport Mode
Million Tonnes CO2
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
Rail
Bus
Three Wheeler
Two Wheeler
Cars, Taxis, MUVs
100
50
0
1980 2000 2030 BAU Efficiency TWW SUT Extra Effort
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Hanoi –Maximum Freedom –
No Rules -- And Maximum Chaos
• Two wheeled paradise or purgatory?
– 1+ moped/household
– Go with flow slow
– No discipline or enforcement
• Consequences
– Very high fatality rate – few helmets
– Clean bikes, but high CO and PM
– “Bikes of Burden” ->
• If cars come?
– Historic area will freeze
– Fatalities increase
– No way back?
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Passenger-Kilometers by Mode
Source: Hanoi Master Plan, own
estimates
40
Bus
Billions of Passenger-km
35
30
25
20
15
10
Car
Motorcycle
Bicycle
Walk
5
0
"Actual" Trends Public Transport
2005 2020
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Fuel by Vehicle and Type;
Resulting CO2 emissions
3.0
6
Energy (billion liters/year)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1995 2005 2020-I 2020-II 2020-III 2020-IV Euro2 2020-V Euro 3 2020-VI Euro 4
5
4
3
2
1
0
CO2 Emissions (million tonnes/year)
History Present Trends High Mass Transit
Motorcycle Car Car (diesel) Bus
Bus (diesel) Truck Truck (diesel) CO2 Emissions
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Hanoi – the Two Wheeler World (TWW)?
A Smart Future for all Asian Cities?
• Low Energy, Low Emissions Mode
– Very energy efficient, with high load factors (and freight)
– Low emissions with clean fuels
– No local emissions with e-bikes
• Traffic and Safety – If Protected from Cars
– Takes up far less space than cars, but carry heavy loads
– Need to slow down, obey rules, respect pedestrians, bikers
– Need better solution to parking than sidewalks
• A Safe, Two-Wheeled, Low Carbon Future?
– Protect crowded, historical areas from cars
– Cluster homes, jobs in dense surroundings, to combat sprawl
– Explore city bikes to use after long journeys into town
Smart, Clean Vehicles the Easy Part: TWW
Only Works With Smart Governance and
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Smart Drivers
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E2W Path to Mass Commercialization
Annual Vehicle Sales (MM/yr)
20
18
16
14
12
10
‐
8
6
4
2
Motorcycles
First
commercial e-
bikes launched
(Shanghai,
Crane)
E2W sales
surge after
SARS
outbreak
Gasoline scooters
banned in several
cities, 53K
scrapped in
Shanghai
Switch to brushless motors enables efficiency
increase (50% 85%). Big impact on range
China passes
law granting
E2Ws right to
bike lanes
Beijing repeals ban
on e-bikes,
Guangzhou bans all
motorized twowheelers
E2Ws
Passenger
Cars
VRLA energy density increases 33%, life
increases 35%. Big impact on cost and
weight
Disposable income nearly doubles to $1200/yr
Source: E-bikes: Jamerson and Benjamin “Electric Bike World Report (2007 edition)”, Personal car & autos: China Bureau of Statistics
2006, Motorcycles: Ohara (2006), Honda Annual Report (2003 and 2006), Feng An (2010), iCET
35

Electric Two Wheels and Four Wheels in China?
?
36

EVs by E2W makers?
Cost (USD) $2,600-7,900 $2,600-5,300 $3,800
Range (km) 80-120 100-150
Speed (km/hr) 45 45 45-60
Power (kW) 3 3
Dimensions (l,w,h) (m) 2.9 x 1.3 x 1.7 3.1x1.6x1.5
Weight (kg) 400 650 750
Battery VRLA VRLA, 48V, 9 kWh
Sources: http://www.incalcu-ev.com/product/view.asp?id=1533,
http://www.yadea.com.cn/tezhong.htm http://www.shiweichina.com/product.asp
VRLA, 48V
(120Ah*12V)
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Sustainable Transport? Yes
OR
+ OR
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The CO2 and Oil Impact of EEV‘s
Not a Simple Matter of Calculation
Electric Cars:
EEV’s*?
Plug In Hybrid:
When to gas,
when to charge?
*”Elsewhere Emissions Vehicles”
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The Singapore Experience:
Integrated Land Use Transport and Development
• Manual road pricing (ALS) introduced in the Central
Business District (CBD) since 1975
• High manpower needs, inconvenient, limited in varying
road pricing charges
• Automated with the Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
system replaced the manual scheme in 1998
• 45 ERP gantries currently in operation
• High tax for acquiring car
• Result – high GDP, low car
ownership and use
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Conclusions: Will Asia Carbonize?
Sane, Safe Transport is the Umbrella
– Make room for 800 million more urbanites – land use planning
– Scale up of bus rapid transit
– Next steps – restraints on car use (congestion pricing?)
Clean Air Also Means Big Changes
– Better intercity roads for freight, people
– Real urban transport – not just token BRT -- reform next
– Next steps – car restraints, protection for NMT
Fuel Economy and Alternative Fuels
– Fuel economy is necessary but not sufficient
– Alternative fuels prospects grim – competition for land
– Main threat/hope – coal/decarbonized hydrogen or??
Avoiding the Multiple Problems of Too Many Cars
Is Much Easier than Mitigating them when its too late!
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Asian Transport
Research Opportunities
• Bean Counting
– Mobility, pollution exposure, etc in cities and nationally
– Person/good mobility, fuel use and economy in all modes
– Measuring the direct, unpaid, and external costs of transport
• Development and Transport
– Transport – economy interactions in developing countries
– Who is in charge of land use and urban/rural development?
– Where does traffic safety fit, particularly for the non-driver
• Transport and Environment Policy
– Business models for urban and intercity transport
– Policies to avoid the crunch of individual vehicles
– Impacts of fuel economy and pollution policies
Key Element: Starting from the Ground Up
Don’t Extrapolate from US, OZ or EU
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Key Messages for Asia (and the World)
Is the Car the Only Alternative for “The Common Man”
• Rapidly Rising CO2 Emissions a Symptom of Bad Transport
– Rising car/two wheeler use driven by poor alternatives
– Congestion raises emissions from everyone, drives more to cars/2W
– Too much policy “carbo-centric” rather than development focused
• Focus on Transport and Development Policy with CO2 Twist
– Avoid-Shift-Mitigate strategy with financing
– Keep the car from taking over, while its not too late
– Avoid carbo-centric “projects” and funding that ignore all else
• The Real Challenge: Balance
– Fuel prices must reflect costs and environmental damage
– Vehicle use must reflect congestion and safety costs
– Urban development must avoid car-centrism
Policy and Direction, not just Other People’s Money (OPM)
the Key Missing Ingredients in Urban Transport Today
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Thank You
Lee Schipper – mrmeter@stanford.edu
http://peec.stanford.edu
Car that absorbs its own carbon?
Does not solve Asia’s Transport Problems
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