Enrollment Projections - Johnson Creek Public Schools

TABLE 7
Grade Progression Ratios
Johnson Creek School District
YEAR
CHANGES B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12
00-01/01-02 0.556 0.870 0.930 0.717 1.000 1.000 0.887 1.000 0.943 1.023 0.977 1.000 1.047
01-02/02-03 0.586 1.091 0.979 0.900 1.289 1.022 1.100 0.979 0.923 1.182 0.841 1.047 0.898
02-03/03-04 0.570 1.095 1.139 1.109 1.194 1.020 0.979 1.023 1.130 1.056 1.051 1.216 1.000
03-04/04-05 0.554 1.000 1.109 1.122 1.000 1.116 1.020 1.087 1.067 1.000 0.921 1.049 0.978
04-05/05-06 0.831 1.000 1.114 0.961 1.000 1.020 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.907
05-06/06-07 0.857 0.922 1.053 1.103 0.898 0.978 1.000 0.979 1.039 1.020 0.938 1.019 0.914
06-07/07-08 0.868 0.955 0.936 1.025 1.047 0.932 1.000 0.942 0.957 0.962 0.961 1.044 0.906
07-08/08-09 0.837 1.063 1.167 1.000 1.024 1.022 0.927 1.067 1.000 0.933 1.020 0.980 1.043
08-09/09-10 0.821 0.966 1.000 1.041 1.045 0.976 1.022 0.895 1.021 1.041 1.071 1.000 1.021
Baseline 0.765 0.999 1.047 1.032 1.044 1.005 0.992 0.999 1.004 1.015 0.981 1.017 0.968
5 Year Trend 0.843 0.981 1.054 1.026 1.003 0.986 0.990 0.977 1.003 0.991 0.998 1.009 0.958
2 Year "Trend" 0.829 1.014 1.083 1.020 1.035 0.999 0.974 0.981 1.010 0.987 1.046 0.990 1.032
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline Average
The grade progression ratios can be interpreted in the following manner. The Baseline ratio for K:1
is .999. This means that in the Johnson Creek School District, the first grade is on average .1% smaller
each year than the kindergarten class was the previous year (the result of transfers to other schools
and out-migration from the district), though the ratio is incredibly close to one, and very little loss of
students is occurring. The B:K (birth to kindergarten) Baseline ratio of 0.765 indicates that on average,
approximately 76.5% of the births in the Village of Johnson Creek and Towns of Farmington and
Watertown from five years previous enroll in kindergarten in Johnson Creek School District. Outliers
(ratios outside of one standard deviation of the mean) are not included in the calculation of the
Baseline average ratios.
In order to examine future enrollment under different growth assumptions, we generate three sets
of grade progression ratios that correspond to the different projection models shown later in this
report. In addition to the Baseline ratios (averages 10 years of data), we examine rates of transfer in
the last 5 years and the last 2 years, effectively weighing enrollment change patterns from different
time periods more heavily than the Baseline. Any significant deviations from the rates of in- and outmigration
in the district area will have a corresponding effect on enrollment. These additional models
allow us to examine alternative outcomes compared to the overall trends of the Baseline model.
Figure 6 shows the differences between these three sets of grade progression ratios.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 19