Enrollment Projections - Johnson Creek Public Schools

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Figure 10 300 Johnson Creek School District 9-12 Enrollment History and Projections 250 200 150 100 50 0 Baseline 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend Kindergarten Trend Actual TABLE 17 Summary of 9-12 Enrollment Projections Johnson Creek School District 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Baseline 196 179 181 171 168 187 195 218 234 237 5 Year Trend 195 177 177 166 161 176 180 198 210 217 2 Year "Trend" 200 183 186 174 168 186 191 213 231 242 Kindergarten Trend 195 177 177 166 161 176 180 198 210 217 All of the models project decreasing enrollment at the high school level over the next five years. This is mainly due to current large cohorts of high school students that will graduate, followed by smaller cohorts of students entering high school in the near future. After this point, as the larger cohorts currently in Elementary school move into high school, enrollment is projected to increase substantially. All of the models project declining high school enrollment over the next five years, with enrollment projections in 2014/15 ranging from a low of 161 students (5 Year Trend/Kindergarten Regression Model) to a high of 168 students (Baseline Model and 2 Year “Trend” Model). School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 29
Conclusions These district-level enrollment projections are based on models that incorporate recent past and current demographic information as well as the district’s own enrollment data. Because most of the students in the district’s schools over the next few years have already been born or are already in school, and because their grade progression from one year to another is highly predictable, the total district-level projections should be viewed as having high accuracy over the next few years. After a few years, and increasingly for the lower elementary grades, actual enrollment figures will likely deviate from these projections by ever increasing amounts. The reason for this is that birth trends, inmigration of pre-school age children, and transfers into the district are more difficult to predict and therefore this makes meaningful incorporation into enrollment projections a challenge. As with nearly all types of forecasts, accuracy in these enrollment projections decreases over time. In sum, the information provided in this school enrollment projection report points to increasing enrollment in the Johnson Creek School District over the next decade. The Last Two Year “Trend” model projects substantially higher enrollment than the other models. This is because it is based upon relatively high grade progression ratios and the rate of increasing births experienced in the district in the last two years. If these higher levels of in-migration and transfers into the district are not continued into the future, or if the number of births in the district declines, then this model will not be valid. If these higher levels become a new trend in the district and are continued, then the Last Two Year Trend model would be an important model to consider. Also of note, the Baseline model projects substantially lower enrollment in the latter half of the decade than the other models, particularly at the elementary school level. This is a result of the slower rate of increase in births as compared to the much quicker increase in births seen in the past few years. If the recession causes the increase in births to slow, or creates a sustained period of no housing development in the district, the Baseline model might be an important model to consider. Enrollment projections for the other two models provided (the 5 Year Trend and Kindergarten Regression models) provide projections that fall somewhere between the Baseline and 2 Year Trend models at the end of the decade. Because the projections found in this report incorporate the consequences of migration to and from the Village and Towns, any significant and sustained interruption of current or recent past migration patterns will erode these models’ accuracy from the initiation point of the new pattern. The various projection models provide a realistic range of migration and transfer effects on the school district. Enrollment growth should be closely monitored for the next few years, and compared with these projections, to determine the trajectory of future growth. This type of monitoring program might help the district to determine which of the models seems to be the most realistic to use for planning purposes. School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 30
Page 1 and 2: Planning for the Schools of Tomorro
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents Introduction ....
Page 5 and 6: Students Figure 1-A 700 Johnson Cre
Page 7 and 8: TABLE 2 Student Enrollment Changes
Page 9 and 10: Grade Figure 1-C shows the age stru
Page 11 and 12: Students In addition to examining k
Page 13 and 14: Population Estimates and Projection
Page 15 and 16: Population projections to 2020 for
Page 17 and 18: Figure 4-B shows population estimat
Page 19 and 20: Figure 5-A shows the number of resi
Page 21 and 22: Methods In order to generate school
Page 23 and 24: Grade Progression Ratio Figure 6 1.
Page 25 and 26: Baseline Projection The Baseline mo
Page 27 and 28: 2 Year “Trend” Projection The 2
Page 29 and 30: Comparison of Projection Models Fig
Page 31: Figure 9 160 Johnson Creek School D

Enrollment Projections - Johnson Creek Public Schools

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