Enrollment Projections - Johnson Creek Public Schools

Kindergarten Trend Projection
For this method we perform a trend analysis to project the number of future kindergarten
students, rather than relying upon the traditional birth to kindergarten (B:K) progression ratio. Then,
the 5 Year Trend progression ratios are used for projecting the other grades (1-12) in the district. In
other words, this model assumes that the number of new kindergarteners each year over the next
decade will continue to follow a trend similar to the trend in kindergarten enrollment change over the
last seven years, regardless of the number of observed births in the school district area.
According to this hybrid projection method (Table 11), K-12 enrollment would increase only slightly
over the next decade. A good way to think about the projections provided by this model is that if the
number of new kindergarteners continues to increase (as they have over the last several years) and if
patterns of transfers in and out of the district continue as they have over the past five years, then the
Kindergarten Regression model should provide a good prediction of future enrollment.
TABLE 11
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Johnson Creek School District
GRADE 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
K 56 58 60 62 64 67 69 71 73 75
1 54 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 70 72
2 59 57 57 60 62 64 67 69 71 73
3 52 61 58 59 61 64 66 68 71 73
4 51 52 61 58 59 61 64 66 68 71
5 45 50 52 60 58 58 61 63 65 68
6 41 45 50 51 59 57 58 60 62 65
7 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 56 59 61
8 34 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 57 59
9 49 34 46 39 44 48 50 58 55 56
10 51 48 34 46 39 43 48 50 57 55
11 45 51 49 34 46 40 44 49 50 58
12 50 43 49 47 33 44 38 42 47 48
K-12 633 640 656 668 685 718 742 775 805 833
K-12 633 640 656 668 685 718 742 775 805 833
K-6 358 377 395 409 425 434 449 465 481 496
7-8 80 86 84 93 99 108 114 112 115 120
9-12 195 177 177 166 161 176 180 198 210 217
School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 25