Enrollment Projections - Johnson Creek Public Schools

5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 9) uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and
recent trends in the number of births in the school district area to project what future enrollments
would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends. With recent migration
rates and birth trends weighted more heavily, K-12 enrollment in the Johnson Creek School District is
projected to increase at a higher rate than the Baseline model over the next decade, projecting an
increase of 240 students (38.3%).
Within the next five years enrollment is projected to increase by 76 students (12.1%).
TABLE 9
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Johnson Creek School District
SCHOOL YEAR
GRADE 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
K 55 62 68 66 66 69 72 74 77 79
1 54 54 60 67 65 65 68 70 73 75
2 59 57 57 64 70 68 69 71 74 77
3 52 61 58 59 65 72 70 70 73 76
4 51 52 61 58 59 65 72 70 71 73
5 45 50 52 60 58 58 64 71 69 69
6 41 45 50 51 59 57 57 64 71 68
7 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 56 62 69
8 34 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 56 63
9 49 34 46 39 44 48 50 58 55 56
10 51 48 34 46 39 43 48 50 57 55
11 45 51 49 34 46 40 44 49 50 58
12 50 43 49 47 33 44 38 42 47 48
K-12 632 644 667 683 703 739 766 801 835 867
K-12 632 644 667 683 703 739 766 801 835 867
K-6 358 381 406 424 442 455 472 491 507 518
6-8 80 86 84 93 99 108 114 112 119 131
9-12 195 177 177 166 161 176 180 198 210 217
School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 23