Understanding and Defeating a Complex Adaptive ... - Australian Army

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Decision-Making • Lieutenant Colonel Ian Langford Introduction The nature of war does not change, merely the character. 2 So says Clausewitz in his classic work, On War. As any reader of this timeless work knows, Clausewitz’s spectrum of study is bounded at one end by ‘total war’—that is, a war of complete annihilation and utter destruction (where violence is the logic, rather than a method)—through to ‘war amongst the people’—where politics and violence by a dominant actor either inside or outside a declared state-sanctioned conflict determines the societal state in which the majority of people submit themselves. Today’s new security order 3 spans Clausewitz’s spectrum via a multitude of manifestations—conflict, war, terrorism, people smuggling, transnational crime and insurgency, to name but a few. All are connected via networks and systems constantly framing and reframing themselves as they seek to achieve an outcome whereby their prevailing existential paradigm becomes the dominant behaviour or condition. This is where victory or success is declared and a new order is imposed by the superior narrative. How nations cope with ‘counter-nation networks’—that is, those complex adaptive systems within the global system that threaten national sovereignty—is a difficult question to ponder. How do nation-states, bounded by their Constitutions and an adherence to a ‘rule-of-law’, defeat counter-nation networks, who, by contrast, are free to constantly reframe themselves until they achieve the dominant narrative? This article will discuss the elements that comprise a complex adaptive system and suggest a counter-system approach through which they can be defeated as part of a national security strategy. A complex adaptive system is a dynamic network of agents that act in parallel, constantly framing and reframing in reaction to the external environment. Its control is highly dispersed and decentralised. Its A complex adaptive system is a dynamic network of agents that act in parallel, constantly framing and reframing in reaction to the external environment. behaviour arises from competition and cooperation. There is little to no control— the collective action of the complex adaptive system is a result of a near infinite number of decisions made concurrently by the constituent agents from which it is comprised. There are a variety of counter-nation complex adaptive systems that meet the definition as described above: global terror groups, transnational people smuggling syndicates, regional based insurgencies, and criminal patronage networks such as page 108 • Volume IX, Number 3 • Australian Army Journal
Understanding and Defeating a Complex Adaptive System drug smugglers and organised crime. The ways in which these systems evolve is based on three common principles: order is emergent (as opposed to pre-determined), history is irreversible, and the future is unpredictable. 4 Principle 1: Order is emergent Rather than being planned or controlled, a counter-nation complex adaptive system interacts in the world in order to form patterns, which informs its behaviour, constantly improving its efficiency over time to achieve its aims and objectives. An example of this is the current Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, which did not arise from a deliberate, pre-planned and articulated strategic plan; rather, it is generated out of a loosely unified religious order that has since adapted into its current form as a counter-nation network. Throughout the past ten years its order has resulted predominantly from the pressure applied against it by the forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Western-backed government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. This emergent, ordered pattern of behaviour has influenced it into a constantly amorphous structure, making it very difficult to target, let alone defeat. Principle 2: History is irreversible All counter-nation complex adaptive systems exist within their own evolutionary environment. They germinate from somewhere. They have a base narrative. As their environment has changed, so have they. While these systems have evolved, they nonetheless are required to constantly assess their past and present in order to inform their future. Examples of these systems include the Irish Republican Army’s transition from a predominantly militant organisation into a political (Sinn Fein) and criminal organisation. History roots it in Northern Ireland and the Catholic enclaves within that country. This is undeniable. It will not change. In understanding these systems, it is imperative to acknowledge where these systems are conceptually rooted and how they evolve. This gives it a self-generated ‘learning loop’ from which it can exponentially increase its rate of emergence, as described in the first principle. Principle 3: The future is unpredictable As a complex adaptive system organises, it creates a multitude of competing, complimentary and counter-intuitive ‘alternatives’ from which it will derive its ‘future’. This allows the system to employ the maximum amount of variety and creativity in securing its destiny, whatever that may be. An optimal system exists Australian Army Journal • Volume IX, Number 3 • page 109
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