Understanding and Defeating a Complex Adaptive ... - Australian Army

Decision-Making • Lieutenant Colonel Ian Langford
on the edge of ‘chaos’; it is here where its ability to choose alternative futures is
optimised, informed by a knowledge network that is generating a vast array of
possibilities and alternatives. An example of a counter-nation complex adaptive
system at the edge of chaos is an improvised explosive device (IED) network such
as those seen most recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. The evolution of this asymmetric,
low cost, high-pay off capability is developed from an environment where
the enemy network had to generate a capability against a counter-system that was
conventionally superior in almost every way. As a result of an urgent need to apply
this asymmetry to combat this threat, the IED networks (derived from counternation
terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda) evolved at an ever increasing cycle that
eventually generated a tempo superior
to that of their adversary, resulting in a
capability overmatch. Thus, in the wars
of Afghanistan and Iraq, the IED became
the insurgent weapon of choice, largely
due to its rate of adaption and evolution
in contrast to US and allied attempts to
keep up with this network through
increases in force protection.
Understanding complex adaptive systems in the
context of counter-nation networks
So how does one defeat a complex adaptive system? How does it have an impact on
a nation’s ability to achieve a victory over a counter-nation network? Can a counternation
network be permanently defeated? Or can one only learn to cope with it?
The first step in developing an approach to defeat a complex adaptive system such
as a counter-nation network is to understand its traits and the behavioural elements
of its constituent components in order to detect patterns that will form the base logic
of an attack and defeat mechanism. Typical of these systems are the following traits:
grouping, rule sets, network flow and competition.
Grouping
An optimal system exists on the
edge of ‘chaos’; it is here where
its ability to choose alternative
futures is optimised …
As elements of the complex adaptive system operate in parallel, their pattern of learning
and behaviour invariably begin to generate similarities that will eventually form together
for a specificity, whether it is functional, temporal or physical. These elements become
‘grouped’ and, therefore, become more easily recognisable within the system.
In the context of a ‘counter-nation network’ there are many examples of this
‘grouping’ phenomenon within a complex adaptive system. The Taliban, Terik-e-
page 110 • Volume IX, Number 3 • Australian Army Journal