Understanding and Defeating a Complex Adaptive ... - Australian Army

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Decision-Making • Lieutenant Colonel Ian Langford Mexican cartels as two normally remote systems that, through common rule sets, network flow and competition, display true emergence by re-framing themselves as a terrorism/narcotics network. By gaining an understanding of the traits of a counter-nation network such as this, the attacking adversary (in this instance, ISAF, INTERPOL, the Afghanistan government) can, as a result of mapping the network, begin to understand it. Notwithstanding this, mapping must be an iterative process, constantly renewed and refined as the network changes. This also acknowledges the previously mentioned principles of a complex adaptive network that thereby necessitates a need for a ‘near-constant’ review of its principles and traits. An effective mapping process can then provide the basis for a more detailed network review, and the construction of a complex network targeting methodology. Emphasis can be further applied on the inter-relationships that exist between the network’s traits and its networks—this survey can occur with an up/down and left/ right perspective in order to attain greater fidelity on the network. Targets (nodes) begin to appear, as well as networks (modes) that form the inter-dependencies across the entire system. Figure 2 illustrates this point using the previous Taliban/Mexican cartel network as a focal point of analysis. Once the network targeting priorities become clear, the aim of the network adversary should be now to attempt to inject a non-linear complexity into the network in order to induce chaos and ‘entrophy’ the network, cascading it to a point of termination and ultimate systemic destruction. Network-based targeting offers a different perspective on the target system or systems by focusing on the interrelationship of elements within the larger system. One devotes particular attention to those properties and mechanisms that account for coherent behaviour in the system. Once this is understood, then the An effective mapping process can then provide the basis for a more detailed network review … introduction of a successful non-linearity into the system (e.g. counter-narcotics law enforcement, international cooperation, counterinsurgent strategies to defeat the Taliban, improved border control, etc) can be applied with maximum effect. Two points of concentration when looking to create non-linearity underpin successful network based targeting: complexity and entropy. 5 Complexity is a measure of the degree to which a system contains large numbers of interacting entities with coherent behaviour. Complexity can be effectively measured from a value of zero to some maximum number. This effectively informs the adversary of the amount of complexity that exists in the network and indicates the level of probable counternetwork actions required. Entropy, on the other hand, is a measure of the amount page 114 • Volume IX, Number 3 • Australian Army Journal
Understanding and Defeating a Complex Adaptive System Grouping Rule Sets Networks and Flows Taliban Ideology Commonalities of beneficial interest Competition (Constructive/ Destructive) Price/transactional benefit dividend—Constructive Mexican cartel Approach patterns Chain of custody of narcotics, finance and lethal aid Divergence as a result of a change in the transactional nature of the relationship—Destructive Opium producers Agreed transactional processes Global reach Elimination of common enemies through joint capabilities (eg. Taliban conduct operations against rival narcotics network despite them not being a declared enemy IAW their jihadist principles)—Destructive External/ internal narcotics/ lethal aid movement facilitators Access and control over broader societal issues IED and narcotic production skills transfer mechanisms Mexican cartel forms an alliance with a non-Pashtu group (Tajik, Hazaran)—Destructive Money launderers/ international illegal financial systems Restrictions on access beyond narcotics network Control of street value of opium to maintain margins Effective generation of a narcotic supply chain that guarantees supply and facilitation of both opium and lethal aid to both parties—Constructive Lethal aid networks—IED manufacturers Undermine common enemies Use of corruption to render legal system non-effective Taliban allow import of greater technology to increase rates of production—Constructive Technology transfer facilitators Free passage Access to distributors Mexican cartels broaden operations to include IED production—Constructive Warehouses Access to leadership Quality controllers Taliban use cartels to attack Western interests—Constructive Figure 2. Complex network based targeting - Terrorism / Narcotics Network Australian Army Journal • Volume IX, Number 3 • page 115
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