RESIDENTIAL GROWTH STRATEGY - Palmerston North City Council

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3.2.4 The medium population growth projection for Palmerston North is average annual growth of 0.7% between 2006 and 2031. This is only slightly below the national population growth projection of 0.8% per annum. Nationally, the projections show further growth in the concentration of population in the Auckland region, which is projected to account for 62% of national population growth between 2006 and 2031. The Bay of Plenty is the only region, apart from Auckland, which is projected to rise at a faster rate than the national average growth rate. 3.2.5 The Manawatu-Wanganui region is projected to grow by just 7,600 people over the period from 2006 to 2031 even though Palmerston North is projected to increase by 15,500, with population declines projected in three of the seven local authorities in the region. Table 3. Medium Population Growth Projections for Manawatu-Wanganui Region Territorial Authority Census Population (2006) Projected Population (2031) 2006 – 2031 change (number) Annual Average growth Ruapehu District 14,000 11,000 -3,000 -1.0% Wanganui District 43,800 40,300 -3,500 -0.3% Rangitikei District 15,100 12,800 -2,300 -0.7% Manawatu District 29,000 32,700 3,700 0.5% Palmerston North City 78,500 94,000 15,500 0.7% Tararua District 18,100 16,500 -1,600 -0.4% Horowhenua District 30,600 29,500 -1,100 -0.1% Manawatu-Wanganui Region 229,400 236,900 7,500 0.1% (Note: the boundary for the Manawatu-Wanganui region does not match precisely with the area covered by the local authorities above) (Source: Statistics New Zealand) 3.2.6 These figures demonstrate the relative strength of projected growth in Palmerston North, and the City’s increasing significance as a regional centre. 3.2.7 This message is reinforced by comparison to other Cities. The only major urban areas outside the Auckland region which are projected to grow at a higher rate than Palmerston North are Whangarei, Tauranga, Hamilton, Kapiti Coast and Wellington. Growth rates in Hastings, New Plymouth, Rotorua, Lower Hutt and Dunedin are expected to be much weaker than for Palmerston North. This is shown in Table 4. - 12 -
Table 4. Medium Population Growth Projections for Selected Territorial Authorities Territorial Authority Census Population (2006) Projected Population (2031) 2006 – 2031 increase (number) Annual Average growth Tauranga 106,700 155,300 48,400 1.5% Hamilton 134,400 181,700 437,300 1.2% Kapiti Coast 47,500 60,900 13,400 1.0% Wellington 187,700 238,700 51,000 1.0% Whangarei 76,500 92,800 16,300 0.8% Palmerston North 78,500 94,000 15,500 0.7% Christchurch 361,800 424,000 62,200 0.6% Hastings 73,200 80,500 7,300 0.4% New Plymouth 71,100 76,000 4,900 0.3% Dunedin 122,300 129,700 7,400 0.2% Lower Hutt 101,300 105,100 3,800 0.1% Rotorua 68,100 69,800 1,700 0.1% Napier 56,800 58,000 1,200 0.1% (Source: Statistics New Zealand) 3.3 Household projections Statistics New Zealand Subnational Family and Household Projections 2001 - 2021 3.3.1 In July 2009, Statistics New Zealand released updated subnational household growth projections. These came too late for incorporation in the PNCC Residential Growth Review Issues and Options paper (July 2009), which instead relied on earlier projections (published by Statistics New Zealand on 27 October 2005). The revised projections indicate that there will be an additional 1,000 households over the previous figures in Palmerston North by 2021. This is mainly due to an ongoing increase in the fertility rate. 3.3.2 Palmerston North City’s estimated number of households totalled 29,600 at 30 June 2006, an increase of 2,900 from 1996 (an average annual increase of 1.0%). Table 5 shows the revised projected household growth under the low, medium, and high series up to 2031. - 13 -
Page 1 and 2: RESIDENTIAL GROWTH STRATEGY Septemb
Page 3 and 4: Contents 1 Background to the Reside
Page 5 and 6: 1 Background to the Residential Gro
Page 7 and 8: 2.1.8 These works are dependent on
Page 9 and 10: social and cultural consequences of
Page 11: 3.2.2 The three projection scenario
Page 15 and 16: 3.3.7 Table 7 and Figure 3 summaris
Page 17 and 18: Table 9. New Dwelling Units by Deve
Page 19 and 20: 13. Housing choice: Encourage devel
Page 21 and 22: Consultation Methods 5.2.3 A variet
Page 23 and 24: • The majority of submitters were
Page 25 and 26: Anders Road (Preferred option) 5.3.
Page 27 and 28: 5.3.21 To enable residential develo
Page 29 and 30: Option 5 - Hendersons 5.3.38 This s
Page 31 and 32: Option 12 - Staces Road 5.3.48 Over
Page 33 and 34: 6 Summary and Next Steps 6.1.1 The
Page 35: Map 1: 18 potential growth sites ex
Page 39: Maps 3 and 4: Soils Maps - Anders R

RESIDENTIAL GROWTH STRATEGY - Palmerston North City Council

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